- Paperback: 256 pages
- Publisher: Lyle Stuart (July 1, 2005)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0818406496
- ISBN-13: 978-0818406492
- Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 0.7 x 8.7 inches
- Shipping Weight: 9.6 ounces
- Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,942,745 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Gamble To Win Advanced Craps Paperback – June 28, 2005
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Top Customer Reviews
The book is based loosely on what Mr. Ellison has dubbed the Theory of Statistical Propensity. Mr. Ellison (whom it should be noted at this point has the mathematical credentials of a short order cook) stews up his bland theory by reheating the old Gambler's Fallacy - a meritless contention that numbers on the dice, the roulette wheel, or whatever contraption you are currently losing your rent on, are somehow "due to hit." He dresses it up as a mathematical theory but it is in fact the same old fool's notion: That random numbers appear in patterns and that the laws of probability run hot and cold.
Had Mr. Ellison not dozed off in high school math class, he would know that the reason numbers tend to even out to the statistical mean over time is that larger and larger sample sizes help to smooth out apparent statistical inequities.
For example: if you flip a coin one hundred times, it's entirely possible that every single flip will land on heads. That's 100% for heads. Now flip one hundred additional times and you might get an even split, 50 head and 50 tails. That brings our total heads count to 50 heads out of 200. Still a significant 75% heads advantage, but closer to the inherent 50% probability than before, no?
Now flip that coin another 1,000,000 times.
When you finally build up a significant enough sample size (1,000,000, in our example) a measly 150 flip head advantage is de minimus. Heck a heads advantage of 10,000 barely moves the needle. That's why numbers draw to a statistical average, Mr. Ellison, not by some cosmic force pulling the coin in one direction or another.Read more ›
I will freely give the following good points to the book: There is some discussion in here on what it takes, personally, to be a professional gambler, in terms of discipline and lifestyle. He has a list of "Ellison's 10 rules" or something like that which, while not specifically applying to craps, generally constitute a solid body of good advice for people that want to take gambling seriously. I found many of the things listed to be applicable and delightfully pithy and compact advice useful, for example, to aspiring poker players.
But that constitutes maybe 10% of the book. And then, he starts talking about craps...and it's all precipitously and recklessly downhill thereafter...
This guy is what Isaac Asimov, in his forward to "Scientists Confront Velikovsky", called an "exo-heretic". Namely, a person who, having no formal credentials in the field he is opining on, has ridiculous ideas that he considers revolutionary, but believes are being suppressed by an academic conspiracy.
What does Ellison say, exactly? I'm so glad you asked. Basically, using his massive credentials as a scientist (i.e., none), sprinkled with the most unbelievable megalomaniacal diatribes, he formalizes (LOL) the "revolutionary" concept that "mathematicians are ignoring because it threatens their worldview" of "statistical propensity".Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
I have known Mr. Ellison for several years so the reader could say my review is biased. Before his books came along there wasn't much out there that gave practical advice on... Read morePublished on June 10, 2006 by Mr. Opposite
R. D. Ellison (the author) is a real life professional gambler. He explains exactly how he plays and why. Read morePublished on March 13, 2006 by Polly Darcey