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Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future 1st Edition

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Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

"Many ask who is a Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry Kissinger of the young generation? The assumption of that question is that there are few with the education, experience, and background who can offer a global approach to the challenges and opportunities of our time. Brzezinski (my late father) and Kissinger at an early age lived abroad, learned foreign languages, and were raised by parents born elsewhere but cast on America's shores by World War II. That gave them special context, and, combined with their education, they were able to redefine America's role away from conventional state-to-state, balance-of-power approaches to ones more in tune with the challenges of their time. Welcome Marko Papic: Born in Southeastern Europe, and after his early education in Canada, now finds himself thinking through geopolitical risk for investors in America. He has written a remarkable book, Geopolitical Alpha, because he generally sees political risk analysts bungling it in terms of their analysis and strategic planning. This is a 'must read' for those interested in global investing and American leadership."
—Mark Brzezinski, United States Ambassador (retd.)

"Geopolitical Alpha is quite literally a bookend for a new paradigm in global markets. Geopolitics is now as relevant to investors as macroeconomics and central banking were in the last paradigm."
—Alan Howard, Founder, Brevan Howard Asset Management

"Marko Papic proves a shrewd and humorous translator between the world of investing and policy-making in the pursuit of Geopolitical Alpha. For both traders looking to find the next trade or policymakers looking to make better policy, Geopolitical Alpha can help you to better understand how our world works and how to operationalize that understanding."
—Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS

"From his very first chapter, Marko Papic tells us what not to do. 'Niccoló Machiavelli was wrong,' he declares boldly. 'Don't study the Prince. Study his constraints.' Drawing on thinkers as varied as Karl Marx and Richards J. Heuer, the guru of intelligence analysis, Papic proceeds to lay out what he calls his constraint-based framework for generating political alpha."
—Sebastian Mallaby, author, More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite

"A thought-provoking geopolitical tour d'horizon that should be considered when we discuss the future of a world in disorder. Only the best books create vehement applause and protest alike. Marko Papic has laid the groundwork for both reactions. Therefore, read it!"
—Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Chairman, Spitzberg Partners; former German Minister of Defense

"Like Tetlock and Gardner's epic work Superforecasting, Marko Papic's Geopolitical Alpha is an important addition to the field of prediction science. Papic's constraint framework is a new powerful tool for an investor's arsenal."
—Joseph Dowling, CEO, Brown University Endowment

"Marko brings geopolitics to life through a very helpful practical framework presented with key insights and wit."—Stephen Gilmore, Chief Investment Officer, New Zealand Superannuation Fund

"Marko's approach is especially relevant at this juncture. The big shifts he cites are real and highly consequential for institutional investors like us. In fact, gaining the right perspective on them today might mean the difference between future success and failure."
—Ziad Hindo, Chief Investment Officer, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan

"Marko's style is restless energy in the service of cool, chess-playing logic. He is generous with his knowledge, merciless in drawing conclusions, and outrageously funny in delivery. He attacks the questions that matter most to investors and that experts too often leave shrouded in finely wrought uncertainty. And yet Marko is a superb writer as well as strategist, interspersing his methodological training sessions with vivid anecdotes of a lifelong intellectual journey from a shattered Yugoslavia to the heights of finance. Geopolitical Alpha is now the locus classicus of market-relevant geopolitical analysis."
—Matt Gertken, Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy, BCA Research

From the Back Cover

Geopolitical Alpha

Not long ago, financial markets danced and central bankers called the tune. Today, investors confront a discordant world transformed by political paradigm shifts. In Geopolitical Alpha, investment strategist Marko Papic shares his framework for making sense of the new macro landscape. By focusing on material constraints, investors can ignore the ephemeral and irrelevant, generating consistent alpha even in the face of extreme uncertainty. Geopolitical Alpha is the guide to the future for anyone interested in geopolitics, economics, and finance.

"Above all else, Marko Papic is an astute strategist who understands that geopolitics is more important than ever for investors, as the world moves from unipolarity to multipolarity. The central message of his fascinating book is simple and compelling: never underestimate the influence of material constraints on policymakers."
John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago; author, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

"In Geopolitical Alpha, Marko Papic provides a framework for thinking ahead of where we are and anticipating geostrategic events. Moreover, he does so in a prose that is as entertaining as it is informative."
H.R. McMaster, Lieutenant General (retd.), U.S. Army; Former White House National Security Adviser; author, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World

"Geopolitical Alpha may do for macro-investing what Benjamin Graham's classic, Security Analysis, did for stock picking: provide a tool kit for generating excess returns by focusing on rigorous frameworks and clear-thinking outcomes, rather than breathless narratives driven by the media echo chamber and market whispers. Marko Papic blends a young person's ability for novel problem-solving with a veteran strategist's historical perspectives to create a smart, important work that will take its place on every serious investor's shelf."
Scott Bessent, Chief Investment Officer, Key Square Group

"Geopolitical Alpha spells out the notion that all preferences are subject to constraints. This book will change how I look at some of my research on investments and make me consider my own biases and preferences."
Paula Volent, Chief Investment Officer, Bowdoin College

"It is now clear that for the first time in our lifetimes geopolitics will be the biggest driver of markets and long run returns. To succeed in this new world, you need to understand geopolitics, and Marko is one of the best geopolitical strategists I know. If you want the best chance to achieve your return targets, read this book."
Raphael Arndt, CEO, Future Fund of Australia

"Geopolitical Alpha is a fascinating, entertaining, and highly readable book. Marko Papic offers a distinctive and compelling take on the interplay between geopolitics and financial markets, with a clear intellectual framework to guide macro investment decisions."
Jeremy C. Stein, Moise Y. Safra Professor of Economics, Harvard University; former member of the Board of Governors, U.S. Federal Reserve

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Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 1st edition (October 13, 2020)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1119740215
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1119740216
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.14 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1.1 x 9.2 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 out of 5 stars 411 ratings

About the author

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Marko Papic

Partner & Chief Strategist

Clocktower Group

Marko is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.

Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012, the financial industry’s first dedicated political analysis investment strategy. The GPS service generated geopolitical alpha by identifying gaps between the market’s political expectations and the firm’s forecasts. Marko was a Senior Vice President and the firm’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist.

Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm’s global geopolitical strategy as well as its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Marko holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia.

He is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future (Wiley 2020), a book that introduces his constraints-based framework to investors. He has lived in seven countries on three continents.

Customer reviews

4.5 out of 5 stars
4.5 out of 5
411 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

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3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting thesis, questionable application and writing
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on September 19, 2021
9 people found this helpful
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Alberto Gallo
5.0 out of 5 stars A great framework to think about geopolitics
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on August 27, 2021
2 people found this helpful
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5.0 out of 5 stars Compelling addition to a one's global macro framework
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on August 1, 2022
5.0 out of 5 stars Best on Politics-Markets Intersection
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on December 20, 2020
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Jamie C
5.0 out of 5 stars Great framework for understanding geopolitics and asset management
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 17, 2021
2 people found this helpful
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