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Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications 1st Edition

by I.J. Good (Author)
4.0 out of 5 stars 4 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0816611423
ISBN-10: 0816611424
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Univ Of Minnesota Press; 1st edition (December 1, 1983)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0816611424
  • ISBN-13: 978-0816611423
  • Product Dimensions: 5.8 x 0.8 x 9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,363,118 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Top Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsNot easy, but definitely worth the effort
By Daniel Atlan on February 4, 2015
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
A good compendium (pun intended) of IJ Good's writings, thus a very good introduction to one of the greatest statisticians' thinking and philosophy
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5.0 out of 5 starsGood understands that Keynes's probabilities were intervals
By Michael Emmett Brady on June 18, 2008
Format: Paperback
Good does an excellent job ,when compared to the rest of the philosophers,economists,and psychologists who have written on Keynes's views on probability,in realizing that Keynes's probabilities were fundamentally intervals(upper-lower limits or bounds) defined by inequality constraints.Unfortunately,Good never specifies where ,in Keynes's 1921 A Treatise on Probability(TP),that Keynes does this.The answer is in chapters 15 and 17 of the TP.Keynes then applies this approach in chapters 20 and 22.Again, Good is correct in stating that Keynes's treatment, in chapter 20 of the TP on analogy and induction, provides the best mathematical-logical treatment of the subject(TP,pp.235-37,254-257).Good never takes Ramsey to task for his completely false characterizations and claims about Keynes's nonnumerical,non-comparable,indeterminate probabilities approach supposedly not using any numbers at all.It is incredible that this blunder has been universally accepted by economists,philosophers ,and psychologists for over 80 years.Similarly,Good fails to state that Keynes's approach is an improved and modified version of Boole's original interval estimate approach contained in chapters 16-21 of Boole's 1854 The Laws of Thought.Lastly,Good overlooks the work of Theodore Hailperin, who showed that all of the Boole-Keynes problems could be restated and solved using linear programming solutions techniques.
Good does correctly show that Ramsey's theory only works if all the probabilities are " sharp"(unique,precise,exact,single number answers)and is severely constrained in the cases where probabilities are not " sharp".

I recommend this book.It at least demonstrates a satisfactory,though not full and complete, understanding of Keynes's contributions to the logic of probability.
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5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars
By Mototsugu Fukushige on March 22, 2015
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
It was an excellent trade for me.
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1.0 out of 5 starsNot as described
By Ken Braithwaite on June 17, 2010
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
You would think from the blurb this is a coherent explanation of the topic. It isn't. It is a collection of old articles, fighting old fights. Not at all what the blurb suggests.
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