The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History Reprint Edition

by David Hackett Fischer (Author)

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ISBN-13: 978-0195121216

ISBN-10: 019512121X

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David Hackett Fischer, one of our most prominent historians, has garnered a reputation for making history come alive--even stories as familiar as Paul Revere's ride, or as complicated as the assimilation of British culture in North America. Now, in The Great Wave, Fischer has done it again,
marshaling an astonishing array of historical facts in lucid and compelling prose to outline a history of prices--"the history of change," as Fischer puts it--covering the dazzling sweep of Western history from the medieval glory of Chartres to the modern day. Going far beyond the economic data,
Fischer writes a powerful history of the people of the Western world: the economic patterns they lived in, and the politics, culture, and society that they created as a result. As he did in Albion's Seed and Paul Revere's Ride, two of the most talked-about history books in recent years, Fischer
combines extensive research and meticulous scholarship with wonderfully evocative writing to create a book for scholars and general readers alike.

Records of prices are more abundant than any other quantifiable data, and span the entire range of history, from tables of medieval grain prices to the overabundance of modern statistics. Fischer studies this wealth of data, creating a narrative that encompasses all of Western culture. He describes
four waves of price revolutions, each beginning in a period of equilibrium: the High Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and finally the Victorian Age. Each revolution is marked by continuing inflation, a widening gap between rich and poor, increasing instability, and finally a crisis
at the crest of the wave that is characterized by demographic contraction, social and political upheaval, and economic collapse. The most violent of these climaxes was the catastrophic fourteenth century, in which war, famine, and the Black Death devastated the continent--the only time in Europe's
history that the population actually declined.

Fischer also brilliantly illuminates how these long economic waves are closely intertwined with social and political events, affecting the very mindset of the people caught in them. The long periods of equilibrium are marked by cultural and intellectual movements--such as the Renaissance, the
Enlightenment, and the Victorian Age-- based on a belief in order and harmony and in the triumph of progress and reason. By contrast, the years of price revolution created a melancholy culture of despair.

Fischer suggests that we are living now in the last stages of a price revolution that has been building since the turn of the century. The destabilizing price surges and declines and the diminished expectations the United States has suffered in recent years--and the famines and wars of other areas
of the globe--are typical of the crest of a price revolution. He does not attempt to predict what will happen, noting that "uncertainty about the future is an inexorable fact of our condition." Rather, he ends with a brilliant analysis of where we might go from here and what our choices are now.
This book is essential reading for anyone concerned about the state of the world today.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"Very persuasive....A major work that deserves the attention of all historians."--Nancy Gordon, Bloomberg Quarterly

"This year's best book for investors."--The New York Times Annual Survey of Books in Business and Economics

"A powerful piece of historical analysis and ought to become part of everyone's framework of understanding."--New Statesman and Society

About the Author

David Hackett Fischer is Warren Professor of History at Brandeis University. He has won numerous awards for scholarship and teaching. His many books include the highly acclaimed Paul Revere's Ride.

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Product details

Publisher : Oxford University Press; Reprint edition (November 11, 1999)
Language : English
Paperback : 552 pages
ISBN-10 : 019512121X
ISBN-13 : 978-0195121216
Lexile measure : 1230L
Item Weight : 1.73 pounds
Dimensions : 9.02 x 5.98 x 1.23 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #402,901 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #63 in Microeconomics (Books)
- #525 in Social Sciences Research

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LeRoywriter

Among the tangible signs to be heeded are the unprecedented numbers of refugees seeing better social and economic environments i

Reviewed in the United States on December 15, 2016

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If you wish to get insights into what is happening to the world as we approach 2017, read this important book. Fisher used price changes as a data proxy for what has four times happened in world history: HUGE DISPARITIES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION HAVE LED TO TO WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE (SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC) CHANGES THAT OCCURRED DURING FOUR DIFFERENT PERIODS OF TIME.
The flyleaf alone makes it clear that changes in income distribution were an important causes in each case. Yet it appears that significant changes income distributions are presently peaking in several continents. If history is to repeat itself this portends that we are likely to soon witness economic and social global disruptions of historic proportions. Among the tangible signs to be heeded are the unprecedented numbers of refugees seeing better social and economic environments in other countries.. Large numbers of unfortunates are seeking to improve their living across national boarder seemingly unaware that the even nations with advanced economies social and economic systems may be on the verge of experiencing part of the tsunami of onflict between the 'haves' and the 'have nots."

5 people found this helpful

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Noah Leed

Fascinating but lacking...

Reviewed in the United States on May 3, 2013

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Fascinating but lacking... in that this wonderful presentation of historical inflationary periods omits any real discussion of the nature and role of the evolution of credit/debt over the periods discussed. The overall picture of placing recent trends in a much larger historical context is something that is sorely missing among modern mainstream economists, but a more comprehensive inclusion of economics is sorely missing in this work by an historian.

The initial chapters seemed to merit a 5* rating at first reading, with their detailed interweaving of price changes in relation to real wage levels, wealth inequality, interest rates, social unrest and war. For someone not familiar with such trends in the 12th through 17th centuries it made for fun and engaging reading, especially with lines like this: "Iron skullcaps were worn not merely by soldiers but also by traveling merchants who lived in a world where consumer complaints were forcefully expressed".

But the sketchy narratives presented for the 19th and 20th centuries made me wonder if the previous chapters were as lacking. There is no discussion of credit expansion, central banking, fractional-reserve lending, gold-standard vs. gold-exchange standard, etc.

In looking back, I realized the author, with much discussion of flows of gold and silver, did not talk much about the impact of foreign exchange contracts that developed in the 12th century. Or the impact of financing transport of goods at medieval trade fairs by the issuance of IOUs, redeemable at other fairs, in exchange for hard money. Or other bills of exchange and credit instruments, discounting of debt, and forms of credit insurance.

There are also flawed discussions of major 20th century events. The author quotes Andrew Mellon's advice to "liquidate" as if that advice was actually followed in the 30s! The author talks about 1960s global inflation without a word about the role of the dollar as global reserve currency! The author discusses OPEC's 1973 price hike without mention of Nixon Shock and the tripling of the price of gold!

As the chapter continues with details about the 1980s and 1990s, it seems the author is unaware of the vast credit expansion and increase in private debt that was occurring as he wrote (and well beyond) since 1980. There is no discussion of trends in public, private and total debt levels anywhere in the entire book. All monetary discussions involved the rise and fall of the physical money supply without detailed mention of private debt, the use of credit and credit instruments, and how debt/credit levels might relate to money supply or price levels.

That makes the author's main causal thesis suspect: throughout the book, he attributes a rising price level to increased demand caused by population growth. But demand is rooted in supply, and as a rising population consumes more, so does it produce more. Certainly seasonal supply shocks will cause price increases, but if variable food harvests don't cause inflation in century-long periods of price stability, why would they cause it in century-long periods of price increases? It is not as though the population is always growing at a vastly different rate in one type of period versus the other.

While he discusses other factors that produce feedback loops that worsen the inflation as it progresses through phases of severity, any single initial causal factor seems unlikely, so the author chooses excess demand as the most likely... even though that defies the economic definition of "demand" by virtue of Say's Law.

To be fair, the author uses the term "aggregate demand". In the Keynesian sense, aggregate demand includes debt as an "ability to pay", counter to Say's Law. It is my suspicion that that is the root cause of these waves. In an extended period of relative price equilibrium, where times are good and both population and productivity are growing, there is a natural tendency for producers to see incentive to expand their production. Do they expand on the basis of savings, or on the basis of credit? Are consumers able to consume on the basis of debt, rather than income, as they do today? To what levels do consumer and business debt rise? Is it the collapse of this growth of debt that finally reduces "demand" and causes price levels to retreat and stabilize?

If production and/or consumption is expanded on the basis of credit, that credit acts as money in the demand for capital and/or consumer goods. An increase in credit means an increase in aggregate demand for the same amount of goods currently available, which means increasing prices. Once this trend is well under way, the other factors begin the feedback loop. The apparent "shortage of money" leads to the counterproductive desire to increase the money supply, and we're off to the races. After the eventual crash, caution in extending credit prevails, leading to periods of stability... that lead to real growth and eventually to the confidence once again to accelerate that growth by expanding credit.

In a strict sense, the author is correct: the money supply increases AFTER the inflation begins, so the inflation is not rooted in monetary expansion... but it could rather be rooted in credit expansion, which has the same net inflationary effect as monetary expansion.

That's my two cents, anyway.

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Jeffrey W. McClure

A Fundamental Guide to the 21st Century

Reviewed in the United States on October 27, 2013

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Dr. Fischer has identified a fundamental element in the socioeconomic changes we are seeing in the world today. His hypothesis that a century with relatively mild weather would produce widespread price inflation and would be followed by a century with climate and weather variances which in turn will cause a socioeconomic deterioration beginning at the periphery has played out almost as though it were history instead of a forecast.

This is a very well written book that is easy to comprehend for the average person with an education level equal to a bachelor's degree. More than just an academic tome, it is entertaining and has many aspects of a good mystery novel. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to better understand the forces that are producing the societal and climatic upheavals we see almost daily.

One person found this helpful

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Roebear

Great Read for those who like history or economics in general

Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2020

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Very readable and interesting for any history buff. Some bias emerges as the book goes on but it is easy to see and correct for if one is doing there only research. In general I found it very useful and worth the money

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Jessica

Historically relevant today and tomorrow

Reviewed in the United States on April 29, 2014

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Once again David Hackett Fischer has delivered a fascinating study on the affects of economics on the rise and fall of empires and powerful countries. Often triggered by war, disease, or the failure of crops Fischer explains the ebb and flow of prices through charts, analysis and careful research he builds a solid platform for the basis of his theory.
The anecdotes he finds brings historical events such as the black plague to life.
This should be a must read for anyone trying to understand economy and history, this will help to understand how events of today will effect our economy in tomorrow.

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Damon

Still worth reading in 2017

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 13, 2017

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I highly recommend this book, if only to gain perspective of economic history. We always concern ourselves about things that are in our immediate time or area, we forget, or lack inquisitiveness to get to know, that we ride economic waves that may last a lifetime. This book does link cause and effect well, and the examples in it gave me pause for thought about our present moment. I think there is too much emphasis on the waves being things like Kondratiev waves, he says himself that the waves are always different but the undertone is still that this is somehow a purely cyclical phenomena.

It is good to read this to gain perspective of time, and to know that potentials in a wave can be building for a lifetime for some poor souls to be the ones who face the unleashed potential of waves that built up long before they were born. To get a super wide perspective of economics you could go into ancient history, but I think this is the broadest lens you need to have, of the different lenses we use.

One person found this helpful

Ingo Jackisch

Thumbs up for "The Great Wave"

Reviewed in Canada on December 16, 2014

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Extremely insightful historical account taking into consideration rises in population and how they trigger rises in food and energy prices, decreases in prices of manufactured goods, increases in govt. bureaucracy, banking, debt, single parent families, crime over a 300 hundred year cycle. As the cycle crests and breaks down starvation and drops in standard of living occur which trigger famine, disease, and finally revolution. The book covers 2.5 of these cycles and even though it is 20 years old, still gives good insight into what will play out in the future as high food and energy prices as well as unsustainably high debt in all areas of the population cannot be sustained. Well written and extremely informative.

One person found this helpful

rejean legault

Excellent book!

Reviewed in Canada on May 14, 2015

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One of the biggest successful book by that american historian. Well done and well illustrated with graphics and statistical tables worth the expense for the book. Definitely, that author deserves all the superlatives in compliments for his works. I highly recommend it.

Helmut de Craigher

Wichtiges Grundlagenwerk - aber mit Fragezeichen

Reviewed in Germany on December 21, 2013

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Ein wichtiges Grundlagenwerk - aber mit Fragezeichen: Die Methode der Erhebung von "Inflation", die in der frühen Neuzeit und bis ins neunzehnte Jahrhundert richtig sein mag, dürfte für das Hochmittelalter falsch sein.
Es wird in beiden Fällen vom Verhältnis Waren(Weizen)-Silber ausgegangen.
Aus zwei Gründen gibt das für das mittelalterliche "Wirtschaftswunder" keinen Inflationsmaßstab ab:
1. Europa war historisch immer Silber-Exportregion (nach Asien, wo Gold verhältnismässig wesentlich billiger war). Die Silberförderung wurde zwar mit dem wachsenden Wirtschaftsverkehr ausgeweitet, aber die Warenproduktion noch mehr. Die Entwicklung des Verhältnisses zweier Waren zueinander sagt zunächst noch nichts über Inflation aus.
2. Silber war aber auch im alltäglichen Leben nur sehr bedingt "Währung", nämlich nur im zwischenstädtischen oder europäischen Fernhandel. Im Alltag der Menschen herrschte erstens die Naturalwirtschaft - auch die Abgaben waren im entscheidenden Beginn des mittelalterlichen Wirtschaftswunders noch in Naturalien zu leisten - und zweitens die Brakteatenwährung. Letztere war unterwertig ausgeprägtes Blech, also Wertmarken, die inklusive einer Nutzungsbebühr regelmäßig wieder eingezogen und gegen neue Marken eingetauscht wurden. Mit dieser praktischen Alltagswährung fiel es leicht, die Preise der Waren des täglichen Bedarfs stabil zu halten. Die These einer mittelalterlichen "Inflation" läßt sich also zumindest nicht hinsichtlich der Verbraucherpreise halten.
Eine doppelte Wahrungslösung wird auch heute wieder als möglicher Ausweg aus der EURO-Krise und als Ausgleichsmechanismus zwischen den unterschiedlich leistungsfähigen Regionen innerhalb des Währungsraumes diskutiert.

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Cali G

Five Stars

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 6, 2014

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great

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