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The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date Paperback – Illustrated, August 27, 2013
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Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing.
Samuel Arbesman shows us how knowledge in most fields evolves systematically and predictably, and how this evolution unfolds in a fascinating way that can have a powerful impact on our lives.
He takes us through a wide variety of fields, including those that change quickly, over the course of a few years, or over the span of centuries.
Review
—Bloomberg
“Delightfully nerdy.”
—The Wall Street Journal
"Absorbing and approachable treatise on the nature of facts: what they are, how and why they change and how they sometimes don’t (despite being wrong)…Facts matter. But when they change—as they seem today to do with alarming frequency, we begin to lose that control. In his debut, Arbesman…advises us not to worry: While we can’t stop facts from changing, we can recognize that what we know “changes in understandable and systematic ways.”… With this, he introduces “scientometrics,” the science of science. With scientometrics, we can measure the exponential growth of facts, how long it will take, exponentially, for knowledge in any field to be disproved—say, 45 years for medical knowledge…like a good college professor, Arbesman’s enthusiasm and humor maintains our interest in subjects many readers may not have encountered before…[The Half-Life of Facts] does what popular science should do—both engages and entertains."
—Kirkus Reviews
“How many chromosomes do we have? How high is Mount Everest? Is spinach as good for you as Popeye thought—and what scientific blunder led him to think so in the first place?The Half-life of Facts is fun and fascinating, filled with wide-ranging stories and subtle insights about how facts are born, dance their dance, and die. In today’s world, where knowledge often changes faster than we do, Samuel Arbesman’s new book is essential reading.”
—Steven Strogatz, professor of mathematics, Cornell University, and author of The Joy of X
“What does it mean to live in a world drowning in facts? Consider The Half-life of Facts the new go-to book on the evolution of science and technology.”
—Tyler Cowen, professor of economics, George Mason University, and author of An Economist Gets Lunch
“The Half-life of Facts is a rollicking intellectual journey. Samuel Arbesman shares his extensive knowledge with infectious enthusiasm and entertaining prose. Even if the facts around us are ever changing, the lessons and fun in this book will have a very long half-life!”
—Michael J. Mauboussin, chief investment strategist, Legg Mason Capital Management, and author of The Success Equation
“The Half-life of Facts teaches you that it is possible, in fact, to drink from a firehose. Samuel Arbesman, an extremely creative scientist and storyteller, explores the paradox that knowledge is tentative in particularly consistent ways. In his capable hands, we learn about everything from how medieval manuscripts resemble genetic code to what bacteria and computer chips have in common. This book unravels the mystery of how we come to know the truth—and how long we can be certain about it.”
—Nicholas A. Christakis, MD, PhD, coauthor of Connected
"Facts fall apart, some famously so. Brontosaurus is not a real dinosaur species; Pluto is not a planet. When you look at them en masse, patterns emerge: Facts die, and are born, at specific, predictable rates. These rates are the subject of applied mathematician Samuel Arbesman’s engaging, insightful jaunt across the backstage of scientific knowledge. Packed with interesting tidbits—for instance, more than a third of mammals thought to have gone extinct in the last 500 years have since reappeared—the book explains how facts spread and change over time. It also explores how today’s data-soaked reality has yielded high-throughput, automated ways to produce new truths, like algorithms that discover connections between genes and disease."
—Veronique Greenwood, Discover magazine
"Knowledge shifts over time, explains Sam Arbesman in The Half-Life of Facts, and it does so in predictable ways. The book takes us on a whirlwind tour of emerging fields of scientometrics, and undertakes a broader exploration of metaknowledge. Arbesman details how researchers beginning to focus the big-data lens back on science itself are uncovering quantitative laws and regularities in the way that scientific knowledge is constructed and modified over time….Arbesman is a delightful guide to the territory, patently in love with this emerging field. He is also a skilled storyteller, and his wide-eyed reporting invigorates material that could have been dry and academic."
—Carl Bergstrom, Nature magazine
About the Author
Visit www.arbesman.net
- Print length256 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPenguin Publishing Group
- Publication dateAugust 27, 2013
- Dimensions5.5 x 0.64 x 8.44 inches
- ISBN-10159184651X
- ISBN-13978-1591846512
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- Publisher : Penguin Publishing Group; Reprint edition (August 27, 2013)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 256 pages
- ISBN-10 : 159184651X
- ISBN-13 : 978-1591846512
- Item Weight : 8.3 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.5 x 0.64 x 8.44 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,113,104 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #865 in Epistemology Philosophy
- #1,705 in Probability & Statistics (Books)
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About the author

Samuel Arbesman is Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital, a science and technology venture capital firm. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Silicon Flatirons Center of Law, Technology, and Entrepreneurship at the University of Colorado and a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. His writing on science, mathematics, and technology has appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Wired. Arbesman's first book, The Half-life of Facts, examines how knowledge changes over time. He lives in Kansas City with his wife and children.
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Sam blogged on his Wired blog to set the record straight and added the mythbusting he had missed in the Errata and updates web page for this book. His own immediate admission of his human error in fact proves the central thesis of this excellent book. To my mind anyone who responds that diligently to what must have been a cringe-worthy "Oh doh!" moment is a scientist whose work is worth following. I'd like to thank Sam for the virtual handshake - he's a much bigger man and better scholar than the little English professor of criminology who in trying to silence me went into ballistic bullying and threatening mode when I recently busted the myth he created in my own field of criminology.
The question that remains outside of the realms of how knowledge expands at exponential rates is why is the SPIDES myth so widely believed and spread by skeptical scholars? Perhaps we need to study the whole life of myths, particularly those believed by credulous skeptics who weirdly fail to check the underlying premises and facts for widely believed claims?
Sam Arbesman (pp. 67-68) tells us: `The creation of facts, as well as their decay, is governed by mathematical rules. But individually, we don't hear of new facts, or their debunking, instantly. Our own personal facts are subject to the information we receive. Understanding how and why information and misinformation spread or don't spread are [sic] just as important when it comes to figuring out how well we know what we know. Knowledge doesn't always reach us all simultaneously, whether we're talking about big new theories or simple incorrect facts - it filters through the population in fits and starts. But there are rules for how facts spread, reach individuals, and change what each of us knows."
In his clear and elegantly riveting prose, a writing style that never wavers throughout the book, Arbesman neatly explains how knowledge gained from social network analysis reveals that it is medium strength social bonds that are the most important conduits of the dissemination of facts and errors of fact because they are not so strong as those characterized by in-bred knowledge in the strongest social groups yet are strong enough to penetrate such groups. Perhaps this neat explanation accounts for Arbesman's own unintended dissemination of the Spinach Myth as though it is veracious knowledge? Could it be that the social network link between himself (a scientist of science) and the natural science bio-chemistry and medical community (and their prestigious journals and books)from whence the myth arose and was most prolifically spread is a medium strength one, which is stronger than his weak social links to peer-to-peer generalist sites such as BestThinkng where the myth was finally bust in December 2010 or the social science Internet Journal of Criminology where it was part-bust earlier in the same year by a criminologist? That seems very likley to me. Moreover, his accounts of examples of undiscovered public knowledge and the reasons why also fits why he never learened that the Spinach, Popeye, Iron Decimal Error Story (SPIDES)is actually a myth. In fact, Arbesman's own error in spreading the Spinach Myth provides confirmatory evidence for his own explanations for how and why such errors persist in our thinking and are spread in our published work. What more could a skeptical reader wish for than that? Arbesman's Error is confirmatory evidence for his own explanations for the persistence of errors.
Arbesman spreads the Semmelweis Supermyth as well. What's going on?
Not only does Arbesman spread the busted spinach myth but he also credulously spreads a myth that was bust 91 years ago. Namely, the Semmelweis Myth. It is, of course, remotely possible that Arbesman is some kind of sceptically mischievous experimenting genius who has deliberately peppered his book on the half-life of facts with myths in order to see whether they are spotted by others and pointed out by them as I have done so here in this Amazon review of his book. But, unless he has written down or made a pre-publication dated video recording of such an aim - along with a list of the myths he has deliberately re-told as though they are veracious knowledge - and left it in a sealed container with his lawyer or publisher we should remain highly skeptical of such a possibility. In reality, Arbesman's Errata and Updates page for The Half-Life of Facts is already pointing the way to a much needed second edition if he is to avoid prolonging the half-life of myths beyond what they would have been had he not written the book in the first place. Most surely that was not his aim.
The big question I have now after reading The Half Life of Facts is: How long exactly then before busted myths and other wrong 'facts' supersede the continuation of the publication of debunked myths in books about bad science and in a unique one such as The Half-Life of Fact's, which is essentially about how facts and myths are spread? Would Googling first to check that the "facts" they claim are "facts" and the myths they claim are myths help authors of such books to avoid disseminating supermyths, such as the Spinach Myth, before going into print? I was surprised, since in Chapter 9 Sam suggests we use search engines to keep our own biased and out of date memories veracious and up-to-date. Weirdly, he did not himself take his own advice before going to print. Had Arbesman Googled all of the apocryphal examples that he provides to support his arguments he would have surprised himself. Had he, for example, Googled "spinach myth" he would not have added to the problem of myth perpetuation in his own book on the problem of the perpetuation of myths and fallacies in such books. Likewise, had he Googled "Semmelweis Myth" he would have avoided the additional embarrassment of perpetuating the life of another pernicious supermyth. Hoisted by his own petard would be one criticism of Arbesman, but that would be only the poorer half of the story. Because while he appears to have ignored his own good advice, his advice is 100 per cent sound and bang-up-to-date for this Information Age.
In the Information Age, therefore, Arbesman's advice in Chapter 9 is essentially that we should all Google first or else publish and be half-lifed.
Perhaps Google might help us to transcend the medium strength social-bond influence upon myth spreading that Arbesman writes about? After all Google's current algorithm seems to rely heavily upon the most recent viewings of popular web pages rather than those which have been around the longest or in the most prestigious sources.
While Arbesman's expert book provides the non-expert reader with an excellent understanding of his field and its usefulness, and I've learned an enormous amount of useful information from it; I do have some concerns that authors such as Arbesman who do such a perfect job of meeting the requirements of the popular science genre to avoid formal referencing to their sources - apart from the very occasional naming of some notable individuals - run a high risk of spreading new Supermyths and perpetuating old ones. It is for this reason that in academia we insist that our students fully cite the sources of all their statements of fact. The same is usually required in peer-reviewed academic journals.
Arbesman has admirably set up an Errata and Updates web page for his book. This is an excellent development facilitated by the communications revolution. Perhaps popular science books should have a similar facility that provides full Harvard style references for every one of the un-cited sources upon which their work is based? If that were done then readers would be able to fact check for themselves the veracity of claims made and the half-life of myths might be shorter.
Finally, buy this book because its an extremely useful addition to your skeptical toolkit.
Dr Mike Sutton is author of
Nullius in Verba: Darwin's greatest secret
Reviewed in the United States on October 13, 2012
Sam blogged on his Wired blog to set the record straight and added the mythbusting he had missed in the Errata and updates web page for this book. His own immediate admission of his human error in fact proves the central thesis of this excellent book. To my mind anyone who responds that diligently to what must have been a cringe-worthy "Oh doh!" moment is a scientist whose work is worth following. I'd like to thank Sam for the virtual handshake - he's a much bigger man and better scholar than the little English professor of criminology who in trying to silence me went into ballistic bullying and threatening mode when I recently busted the myth he created in my own field of criminology.
The question that remains outside of the realms of how knowledge expands at exponential rates is why is the SPIDES myth so widely believed and spread by skeptical scholars? Perhaps we need to study the whole life of myths, particularly those believed by credulous skeptics who weirdly fail to check the underlying premises and facts for widely believed claims?
Sam Arbesman (pp. 67-68) tells us: `The creation of facts, as well as their decay, is governed by mathematical rules. But individually, we don't hear of new facts, or their debunking, instantly. Our own personal facts are subject to the information we receive. Understanding how and why information and misinformation spread or don't spread are [sic] just as important when it comes to figuring out how well we know what we know. Knowledge doesn't always reach us all simultaneously, whether we're talking about big new theories or simple incorrect facts - it filters through the population in fits and starts. But there are rules for how facts spread, reach individuals, and change what each of us knows."
In his clear and elegantly riveting prose, a writing style that never wavers throughout the book, Arbesman neatly explains how knowledge gained from social network analysis reveals that it is medium strength social bonds that are the most important conduits of the dissemination of facts and errors of fact because they are not so strong as those characterized by in-bred knowledge in the strongest social groups yet are strong enough to penetrate such groups. Perhaps this neat explanation accounts for Arbesman's own unintended dissemination of the Spinach Myth as though it is veracious knowledge? Could it be that the social network link between himself (a scientist of science) and the natural science bio-chemistry and medical community (and their prestigious journals and books)from whence the myth arose and was most prolifically spread is a medium strength one, which is stronger than his weak social links to peer-to-peer generalist sites such as BestThinkng where the myth was finally bust in December 2010 or the social science Internet Journal of Criminology where it was part-bust earlier in the same year by a criminologist? That seems very likley to me. Moreover, his accounts of examples of undiscovered public knowledge and the reasons why also fits why he never learened that the Spinach, Popeye, Iron Decimal Error Story (SPIDES)is actually a myth. In fact, Arbesman's own error in spreading the Spinach Myth provides confirmatory evidence for his own explanations for how and why such errors persist in our thinking and are spread in our published work. What more could a skeptical reader wish for than that? Arbesman's Error is confirmatory evidence for his own explanations for the persistence of errors.
Arbesman spreads the Semmelweis Supermyth as well. What's going on?
Not only does Arbesman spread the busted spinach myth but he also credulously spreads a myth that was bust 91 years ago. Namely, the Semmelweis Myth. It is, of course, remotely possible that Arbesman is some kind of sceptically mischievous experimenting genius who has deliberately peppered his book on the half-life of facts with myths in order to see whether they are spotted by others and pointed out by them as I have done so here in this Amazon review of his book. But, unless he has written down or made a pre-publication dated video recording of such an aim - along with a list of the myths he has deliberately re-told as though they are veracious knowledge - and left it in a sealed container with his lawyer or publisher we should remain highly skeptical of such a possibility. In reality, Arbesman's Errata and Updates page for The Half-Life of Facts is already pointing the way to a much needed second edition if he is to avoid prolonging the half-life of myths beyond what they would have been had he not written the book in the first place. Most surely that was not his aim.
The big question I have now after reading The Half Life of Facts is: How long exactly then before busted myths and other wrong 'facts' supersede the continuation of the publication of debunked myths in books about bad science and in a unique one such as The Half-Life of Fact's, which is essentially about how facts and myths are spread? Would Googling first to check that the "facts" they claim are "facts" and the myths they claim are myths help authors of such books to avoid disseminating supermyths, such as the Spinach Myth, before going into print? I was surprised, since in Chapter 9 Sam suggests we use search engines to keep our own biased and out of date memories veracious and up-to-date. Weirdly, he did not himself take his own advice before going to print. Had Arbesman Googled all of the apocryphal examples that he provides to support his arguments he would have surprised himself. Had he, for example, Googled "spinach myth" he would not have added to the problem of myth perpetuation in his own book on the problem of the perpetuation of myths and fallacies in such books. Likewise, had he Googled "Semmelweis Myth" he would have avoided the additional embarrassment of perpetuating the life of another pernicious supermyth. Hoisted by his own petard would be one criticism of Arbesman, but that would be only the poorer half of the story. Because while he appears to have ignored his own good advice, his advice is 100 per cent sound and bang-up-to-date for this Information Age.
In the Information Age, therefore, Arbesman's advice in Chapter 9 is essentially that we should all Google first or else publish and be half-lifed.
Perhaps Google might help us to transcend the medium strength social-bond influence upon myth spreading that Arbesman writes about? After all Google's current algorithm seems to rely heavily upon the most recent viewings of popular web pages rather than those which have been around the longest or in the most prestigious sources.
While Arbesman's expert book provides the non-expert reader with an excellent understanding of his field and its usefulness, and I've learned an enormous amount of useful information from it; I do have some concerns that authors such as Arbesman who do such a perfect job of meeting the requirements of the popular science genre to avoid formal referencing to their sources - apart from the very occasional naming of some notable individuals - run a high risk of spreading new Supermyths and perpetuating old ones. It is for this reason that in academia we insist that our students fully cite the sources of all their statements of fact. The same is usually required in peer-reviewed academic journals.
Arbesman has admirably set up an Errata and Updates web page for his book. This is an excellent development facilitated by the communications revolution. Perhaps popular science books should have a similar facility that provides full Harvard style references for every one of the un-cited sources upon which their work is based? If that were done then readers would be able to fact check for themselves the veracity of claims made and the half-life of myths might be shorter.
Finally, buy this book because its an extremely useful addition to your skeptical toolkit.
Dr Mike Sutton is author of
[[ASIN:1541343964 Nullius in Verba: Darwin's greatest secret]]
Yet the book doesn't really deliver. Despite the exciting thesis, repeated in the opening paragraphs of numerous chapters, that the phenomena of exponential growth of facts and loss of facts in various fields of knowledge can be described precisely as mathematical models, what we end up with is more like those scientific findings so beloved, it seems, by the media. Researchers have found that (fill in the blank), which could lead to (fill in the blank). Alas, we seldom learn enough about such findings to know how to evaluate them; that would take much, much more effort on the reporting side than the story is worth to the publisher, and, of course, would demand much, much more of the reader than such a one would be prepared to invest in reading the newspaper or listening to the evening news. So out of a decent respect for an author whose scientific credentials are not negligible--but neither are they formidable--I will not severely criticize a work that most probably would never have seen the light of publication day, at least not outside of strictly academic publishing, had it been able to deliver much of what it promises.
Is what you (or your parents) learned in school still accurate? How long can information be relied on before it reaches its "expiration date?" Am I better off with a doctor fresh out of med school or one who has been practicing for fifty years?
Arbesman's book is comprised of a number of thoroughly gripping essays relating to facts and research in the world around us. However, my favorite parts of the book, and what I will probably remember the most, are the amusing trivia and oftentimes hilarious anecdotes. My personal favorite was the one about the medical researcher who "discovered" calculus in 1994.
Arbesman's book is important because it not only allows you to understand how we as a society have changed in the past decades/centuries/millennia - but also where we are going in terms of intelligence, education and technology.
Top reviews from other countries
This is a great little book that is jam-packed with insights and bang-up-to-date thinking on the subject of knowledge and veracity. I highly recommend it as an essential tool for your skeptical tool-kit. The author of this book, Sam Arbesman, is one to watch. I look forward to reading his future work.
Mike Sutton is author of
Nullius in Verba: Darwin's greatest secret
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 13, 2013
This is a great little book that is jam-packed with insights and bang-up-to-date thinking on the subject of knowledge and veracity. I highly recommend it as an essential tool for your skeptical tool-kit. The author of this book, Sam Arbesman, is one to watch. I look forward to reading his future work.
Mike Sutton is author of
[[ASIN:1541343964 Nullius in Verba: Darwin's greatest secret]]
Some of it is repetitive and he jumps around with his ideas in various chapters.









