Thurow presented 3 lists in "Table6.1 The Richest Countries Per Capital in 1870 and 1988." He intended to show that it is difficult for a country to get rich. He was right. But the date he provided in the book also suggests something contrary to commonly held belief concerning the relationship between Western democracy and prosperity.
1. The richest countries in 1988 based on internal purchasing power in descending order:
United Arab Emirates, United States, Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Luxembourg, Australia, Iceland, Kuwait, Sweden, West Germany, Finland, Japan, France, Denmark, United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria.
2. The richest countries in 1988 based on external purchasing power in descending order are:
Switzerland, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, United States, West Germany, Canada, Luxembourg, France, Austria, United Arab Emirates, Netherlands, Belgium, United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, New Zealand.
Judging from the above two lists, one is not difficult to reach the conclusion that democracy is correlated with prosperity. But then a light bulb went up. First of all, correlation is not causation. More important, one can also look at a similar list concerning the relative wealth of the countries at 1870.
3. The richest countries in 1870 in descending order are:
Australia, United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, United States, New Zealand, Denmark, Canada, France, Argentina, Austria, Italy, Germany, Spain, Norway, Ireland, Portgual, Sweden, Chile
Compare the 1870 list with the 1988 lists, it is obvious that many rich countries in 1988 were already rich in 1870. Many of the rich countries are democracies in 1988. Were they equally democratic in 1870?
At 1870, Ireland, Australia,were still part of the United Kingdom. NewZealand's was declared a British dominion at 1907. Canada was independent in 1867, so its properity was not the results of democracy.
Napolean III of the Second France Empire had lost the Frano-Prussian war, the Third Republic was newly established.
How about Austria? Seems Austrians had a low opinion on democracy. ""When Paris sneeze," commented the Austrian Chancellor, Metternich, "Europe catches Cold." French-style democracy was a menance threatening monarch, Church, and property - the pillars of every thing he stood for." (EUROPE by Norman Davies)
In short, not many list 3 countries above were real democracies. Indeed, no European countries in list 3 allowed universal male suffrage in 1870 with Switzerland the only exception.
Again, correlation between democratic coutry and prosperous country is not causation. Many countries are rich today because they were already rich 100+ years ago.
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Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and America Paperback – June 1, 1993
by
Prof. Lester C. Thurow
(Author)
A renowned business leader predicts that economic strength will determine the next world leader, and he outlines a long-term plan for American success. By the author of The Zero-Sum Society. Reprint. National ad/promo.
- Print length336 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherWarner Books
- Publication dateJune 1, 1993
- Dimensions5.25 x 0.88 x 8 inches
- ISBN-100446394971
- ISBN-13978-0446394970
Product details
- Publisher : Warner Books; First Edition (June 1, 1993)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 336 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0446394971
- ISBN-13 : 978-0446394970
- Item Weight : 1 pounds
- Dimensions : 5.25 x 0.88 x 8 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #842,787 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #122 in Exports & Imports Economics
- #323 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Books)
- #709 in International Economics (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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Reviewed in the United States on July 1, 2014
Reviewed in the United States on August 11, 2010
Taking a snapshot of the economic world of the early 1990's, Thurow made predictions that turned out to be as accurate as George W. Bush's Iraqi Intelligence estimates. Looking through a perspective of three economic superpowers dueling it out, namely the U.S., Japan and Germany, Thurow did not predict the rise of many other nations economically, as well as Japan's struggles during the 1990's.
Thurow put too much empasis on Japan's supposed strengths, including an active national banking policy as a means of promoting exports and job growth. Nowhere in Thurow's analysis is there a place for the rise of Chinese capitalism in a totalitarian state. The dynamics have changed dramatically since Thurow put together this book, which at the time, I would have given four to five stars for.
Economists have a tough job. They put their predictions on paper. We rarely hold a weatherman accountable for missing the high temperature by 5-10 degrees, but in this case, you have to atleast acknowledge that the author missed the green and ended up in a sand trap.
Thurow put too much empasis on Japan's supposed strengths, including an active national banking policy as a means of promoting exports and job growth. Nowhere in Thurow's analysis is there a place for the rise of Chinese capitalism in a totalitarian state. The dynamics have changed dramatically since Thurow put together this book, which at the time, I would have given four to five stars for.
Economists have a tough job. They put their predictions on paper. We rarely hold a weatherman accountable for missing the high temperature by 5-10 degrees, but in this case, you have to atleast acknowledge that the author missed the green and ended up in a sand trap.
Reviewed in the United States on July 10, 2006
Even being an (unemployed)agronomist here in Brazil, I love to read books about world's situation.I read this book about eight years ago.
This book has many usefull informations.The best in this book is chapter 6.At the same time, this book is now outdated.Japan has no possiblity to be world's leader, in XXI Century.Europe is changing.USA had no big problem after all, with military expending or anything else.After all, this book is outdated, but not useless.
This book has many usefull informations.The best in this book is chapter 6.At the same time, this book is now outdated.Japan has no possiblity to be world's leader, in XXI Century.Europe is changing.USA had no big problem after all, with military expending or anything else.After all, this book is outdated, but not useless.
Reviewed in the United States on October 14, 2007
With the fall of the dollar and the rise of China together with the bursting of America's housing bubble this book is looking more presentient.
Reviewed in the United States on August 6, 2002
This book is racy reading , and is made of the stuff non-fiction bestsellers are sometimes made of - a lack of intellectual rigour combined with a hypothesis that appeals to the general public. Tell the world that countries are like corporations , and that America and Japan (or any two countries) are engaged in a competitive game similar to that between Coca Cola and Pepsi - and there is a likelihood that a lot of heads will nod in supposed understanding.
No mention is made of the fact that international trade is NOT a zero-sum game , and that exchange based on comparative advantage will lead to a win-win situation for both countries involved. Instead the book harps on the assumption that somehow at the end of the game there will be winners and losers. In fact, it asserts that a united Europe will be the winner among the US , Japan and Europe. That prediction does not look like being borne out anytime soon , and Japan is languishing in a decade long mild recession - even though Japan did follow a policy of preferentially promoting "strategic" sectors , similar to what the book suggests.
The book's assertion that there are some high value-added sectors that ought to be promoted have been demolished by more careful analyses - notably by Paul Krugman's articles in Foreign Affairs ( March/April 1994) . These analyses show that productivity growth , rather than victory or defeat in some supposed economic Olympics , is the primary causal factor behind continued growth or stagnation.
Someone (I think Jagdish Bhagwati , but not sure) said in response to the assertion that it is better to produce semiconductor chips than potato chips ---- that you can produce sophisticated semicon chips, export them and import potato chips, lie in front of the TV all day long eating potato chips, and become a society of morons. On the other hand, you can produce potato chips , export it and import semiconductor chips, and use them to improve education. The hollowness of a lot of assertions in this Thurow book can be demolished by this silly-sounding but relevant quote.
The doctor's prescription is as follows - if you read this book , read some effective antidotes (like the Krugman articles) - otherwise you may be condemned to a view of the world that is siren-like in its appeal , but lacks even a modicum of truth.
No mention is made of the fact that international trade is NOT a zero-sum game , and that exchange based on comparative advantage will lead to a win-win situation for both countries involved. Instead the book harps on the assumption that somehow at the end of the game there will be winners and losers. In fact, it asserts that a united Europe will be the winner among the US , Japan and Europe. That prediction does not look like being borne out anytime soon , and Japan is languishing in a decade long mild recession - even though Japan did follow a policy of preferentially promoting "strategic" sectors , similar to what the book suggests.
The book's assertion that there are some high value-added sectors that ought to be promoted have been demolished by more careful analyses - notably by Paul Krugman's articles in Foreign Affairs ( March/April 1994) . These analyses show that productivity growth , rather than victory or defeat in some supposed economic Olympics , is the primary causal factor behind continued growth or stagnation.
Someone (I think Jagdish Bhagwati , but not sure) said in response to the assertion that it is better to produce semiconductor chips than potato chips ---- that you can produce sophisticated semicon chips, export them and import potato chips, lie in front of the TV all day long eating potato chips, and become a society of morons. On the other hand, you can produce potato chips , export it and import semiconductor chips, and use them to improve education. The hollowness of a lot of assertions in this Thurow book can be demolished by this silly-sounding but relevant quote.
The doctor's prescription is as follows - if you read this book , read some effective antidotes (like the Krugman articles) - otherwise you may be condemned to a view of the world that is siren-like in its appeal , but lacks even a modicum of truth.
Top reviews from other countries
amazon Fan
5.0 out of 5 stars
日欧米の三者共勝利者はいないけど・・・・。
Reviewed in Japan on October 28, 2013
非常に読みやすい内容です。論評はP.クルーグマン先生に任せておいて、ある程度の結果が出てから読むと推測の矛盾やどの指標のどれが無理があったか良く理解できます。欧州の一人勝ちになりませんでしたが、バブル後から日本の進んできた過ちを、現在のアベノミクス効果などと持て囃すマスコミに是非通読していただきたい。確実に目から鱗が落ちますよ。
