The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession Revised Edition
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This book is about Japan's 15-year long recession and how it affected current theoretical thinking about its causes and cures. It has a detailed explanation on what happened to Japan, but the discoveries made are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macroeconomic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked.
The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory- The Holy Grail of Macro Economics
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"...provide fascinating insights into the problems of Japan...interesting thesis" (Wilmott.com/blogs, August 2009)
"…the Japanese policymakers who told everyone the US was in danger of falling into a prolonged period of economic weakness were right. To understand why this is true, you need to read a brilliant book by Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute." (Financial Times, January 2009)
"…the definitive book on Japan's decade-long recession in the 1990s." (USA Today, March 2009)
"Books about the current global economic crisis are being written and published by the truckload. But few – perhaps none – are worth reading… Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo, a think tank attached to Japan's biggest investment bank, watched Japan's 'lost decade' from an excellent vantage point: he was close enough to understand the detail, data and ways in which both corporate and political decisions were made, and independent enough to be able to analyse what happened in a reasonably detached and cool way." (Survival, May 2009)
"A must-read to an understanding of what Japan went through and what the United States and Europe may experience is Koo's latest book The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession." (The Edge Financial Daily, December 2008)
From the Inside Flap
THE HOLY GRAIL OF MACROECONOMICS: LESSONS FROM JAPAN'S GREAT RECESSION
"...any analyst of the current United States situation must consider koo's argument."
—Lawrence H. Summers, Director, National Economic Council
"... the Japanese policymakers who (said) the U.S. was in danger of falling into a prolonged period of economic weakness were right. To understand why ... you need to read a brilliant book by Richard Koo..."
—Martin Wolf Financial Times
"There will probably never be a last word on the Japanese financial catastrophe of the 1990s but Richard Koo's book may be the most significant analysis ever published. Agree or disagree, any analyst of the current United States situation must consider Koo's arguments."
—Lawrence H. Summers Director, National Economic Council Former President, Harvard University and the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
"Richard Koo does it again. By presenting a unique theory regarding the Great Depression and Japan's recession of the last 15 years, Koo offers a new understanding of current problems in the U.S. and other economies. With many pearls of analytical wisdom, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession is a must-read for economists, policymakers and individual investors alike."
—Nobuyuki ldei Founder & CEO, Quantum Leaps Corporation Former Chairman & CEO, Sony Corporation
"Richard Koo's pioneering work on balance-sheet recession has been invaluable in understanding the difficulty faced by Japan's economy and monetary authorities during the past 15 years. In this book, he has shown that the U.S. Great Depression was also driven by the same balance sheet concerns of the private sector, indicating that this kind of recession can happen to any post-bubble economy. I sincerely hope that the lessons contained in this book are put to good use in fighting similar recessions elsewhere, including the U.S. subprime crisis."
—Yasushi Mieno Former Governor, Bank of Japan
"The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics presents a brilliant and original framework for understanding—and overcoming—a post-bubble economic crisis such as the one the world faces today. By discrediting the conventional view that monetary policy is effective in combating a post-bubble recession, Richard Koo has made an invaluable contribution to economic theory and at just the right time."
—Richard Duncan Author, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures Partner, Blackhorse Asset Management
From the Back Cover
THE HOLY GRAIL OF MACROECONOMICS: LESSONS FROM JAPAN'S GREAT RECESSION
"...any analyst of the current United States situation must consider koo's argument."
―Lawrence H. Summers, Director, National Economic Council
"... the Japanese policymakers who (said) the U.S. was in danger of falling into a prolonged period of economic weakness were right. To understand why ... you need to read a brilliant book by Richard Koo..."
―Martin Wolf Financial Times
"There will probably never be a last word on the Japanese financial catastrophe of the 1990s but Richard Koo's book may be the most significant analysis ever published. Agree or disagree, any analyst of the current United States situation must consider Koo's arguments."
―Lawrence H. Summers Director, National Economic Council Former President, Harvard University and the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
"Richard Koo does it again. By presenting a unique theory regarding the Great Depression and Japan's recession of the last 15 years, Koo offers a new understanding of current problems in the U.S. and other economies. With many pearls of analytical wisdom, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession is a must-read for economists, policymakers and individual investors alike."
―Nobuyuki ldei Founder & CEO, Quantum Leaps Corporation Former Chairman & CEO, Sony Corporation
"Richard Koo's pioneering work on balance-sheet recession has been invaluable in understanding the difficulty faced by Japan's economy and monetary authorities during the past 15 years. In this book, he has shown that the U.S. Great Depression was also driven by the same balance sheet concerns of the private sector, indicating that this kind of recession can happen to any post-bubble economy. I sincerely hope that the lessons contained in this book are put to good use in fighting similar recessions elsewhere, including the U.S. subprime crisis."
―Yasushi Mieno Former Governor, Bank of Japan
"The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics presents a brilliant and original framework for understanding―and overcoming―a post-bubble economic crisis such as the one the world faces today. By discrediting the conventional view that monetary policy is effective in combating a post-bubble recession, Richard Koo has made an invaluable contribution to economic theory and at just the right time."
―Richard Duncan Author, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures Partner, Blackhorse Asset Management
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Wiley; Revised edition (August 17, 2009)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 352 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0470824948
- ISBN-13 : 978-0470824948
- Item Weight : 1.11 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.02 x 1.05 x 9.08 inches
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Best Sellers Rank:
#572,003 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #112 in Macroeconomics (Books)
- #136 in International Business (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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Customer reviews
Top reviews from the United States
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However, I do think that the book is worth reading. Koo brings forth the concept of "Balance Sheet Recession" which is a deterioration of the assets on a company's balance sheet which makes the company want to pay down debt rather than take it on. Therefore all the monetary policy of increasing money supply will not tempt the companies to borrow. I think he is right on this.
I also think that he presents many data charts from the Great Depression and elsewhere that are useful pieces of info (in fact, I bought two books that he referenced for some of this data).
Economics is a tough subject. Koo praises FDR for raising the US GDP by 48% in 4 years with budget deficits, Public Works Admin, Works Progress Admin etc. Yes, these organizations did put people to work. Some of the stuff was actually useful (like the Grand Coulee Dam). But Koo fails to mention that FDR took the US off the gold standard which helped boost the US GDP (with less valuable dollars).
My warning is not to take what Koo says as gospel, but to say that what he discusses is worth discussing and therefore this book should be read.
The book is written in an engaging style, although it is a bit repetitive. The discussion focuses mostly on the historical data necessary to prove the validity of the ideas and the implication of the ideas for policy. With such significant implications for macroeconomic models it is unfortunate that a new or adjusted macroeconomic model was not provided. Overall I really enjoyed this book, I just wish I understood all of its implications.
This realization is deemed to be the missing link to complete economist's understanding of how to bridge fiscal macroeconomic thought and monetary economic thought and the solutions required in the aftermath of a burst asset bubble. Discussing the shortfalls of Friedman's positions on the demand function for money to be a function of nominal interest rates, it is argued that when one is in the position of being insolvent yet operational, the focus shifts from using lending lines to maximise ROE to using free cashflow to minimize the debt that is causing this insolvency. When this market regime is upon us, it is the need of the government to use fiscal policy to fund the output gap.
I think this is pretty accurate as an analysis of the problems that arise in monetary policy when the world is in fear of the phenomenon that hurt them (being burdened with debt that is greater relative to the asset base one had assumed would back it) and this aversion has macroeconomic repurcussions. My only criticism is, I dont think this is as obscure a result as is described. Most ecnomists realize how output gaps can arise, how debt aversion can form. Richard Posner, who is a judge, talks about debt aversion off-hand as though its well known. So all in all i think its a god perscriptive piece on a very real phenomenon we deal with but its not revolutionary and this phenomenon is discussed by others (though few have gone in to as much detail about it).
That said, the analysis expressed in his book does not constitute the Holy Grail of macro-economics (which I imagine is: how do you deliver sustained non-inflationary economic growth ?). It is, rather, a well-timed cautionary tale for ministers of finance and central bankers.
Top reviews from other countries
This shock causes them to stop spending and borrowing and direct their space cash-flow to repaying their debts. This is sensible from the individuals point of view, but, when most individuals and businesses are facing the same problem the bottom drops out of the economy, a deflation results. With borrowings built up over years and only spare can flow to pay back with (assets have dropped) its a long way back...
The examples in the book explain the mechanism and the correct policy responses and how the incorrect responses such as those in the US following the Wall Street Crash of 1929 brought about the great depression of the 30's.
In 2008 the global financial crisis was just getting underway, the Author was right on the money and correctly explained what was coming next. I disagree with the reviewer who said the text lacked academic rigour, it is convincing from a simple mathematical basis.
I'm not an economist but an individual whose interested in asset economies and the seemingly endless rise in house prices in the UK during my lifetime, 70's, 80's, 90's 00's. I was shocked when I saw what happened in Japan to property prices following the bursting of the assets bubble and the 90% collapse in proper prices subsequently. Not all at once but "death by sandpapering", my worry, could this happen in the UK? What would happen to the nation if it did?
The author explains how the Japanese property crash came about over a long period of time and the policy errors which were made.
Rather than a peculiar Japanese experience the same things could happen anywhere. What's particularly optimistic is how eventually the problem was solved and how relevant the solution is to the problems facing the western world today. Whats really heartening is how great depressions have been solved in 5 years or so with the correct policy, read the book to find out what.
Read thus book first before going onto his 2nd book the QE Trap, you'll get much more out of reading the two books.
While I have rated it 5 stars it does have some flaws. As one of the other reviewers have commented the data and the quality of the charts are rather lacking. It would have been nice to have more detail and some of the underlying data.
While the author might be right; his approach lacks some academic rigour. The book doesn't sufficiently test alternative hypothesises and eliminate them as possible explanations. Rather the author immediately moves onto his theory as the only possible explanation.
Stylistically, it could have been shorter, a little less repetitive and more concise. Though these are minor complaints.
Koo has a proven track record and debunks the most prevalent myths about what went wrong, and is still going wrong to this day, in Japan.
A good read for anyone regardless of capabilities in economic theory.






