David Goldman's book is hard to summarize, perhaps because it is so thought-provoking. It is also full of data which you have probably never seen before.
The most startling data describe what might be the impending collapse of the Iranian theocracy. It has been a complete failure in every direction, and even the mad, evil Ahmadinejad can see the handwriting on the wall. After thirty years of religious tyranny, it turns out that a mere two percent of Iranians attend mosque on Fridays. The birthrate has plummeted --- the steepest drop in fertility known to recorded history. Prostitution is pandemic, with a huge number of prostitutes being women who passed the university entrance exam, or who are actually studying at the university. They sell themselves not out of desperation but out of greed. Drug addiction now has hit 5 million men, among the work-force which is 35 million strong. Rumor has it that the Big Turbans on top of this seething volcano are now grabbing everything they can before their number is up, with billions of dollars disappearing from Iranian banks.
Gee, maybe Grandpa was right: "Religion is in the heart. It cannot be forced upon the people. You find the love within God, and with that love, you cherish life."
What is even more startling is that this is only the worst case in the Muslim world --- all of the oil-importing Muslim countries are facing disaster, with Egypt as a prime example: 80 million very backward people who need to buy half their bread from abroad. Well, tourism in Egypt is dead, for some STRANGE reason, and that foreign exchange has disappeared, and the price of wheat is going up up up as the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese buy more and more. We may well be looking at a desperate famine situation within twelve months.
And where will the starving Egyptians try to run? Do you know where the Libyans are running right now?
They're trying to run to Europe, naturally, at the same time as a lot of Europeans are beginning to feel that they have enough Muslims already. The rioting "youths" burning cars in Paris may well have slammed the door shut for the coming refugees from Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria.
This all presents a highly dangerous situation, because many of these countries (like Iran and Syria) are in danger of simply becoming failed states, and the idea of Persian culture suddenly disappearing from the earth will make many people unhappy, but no one more than the Persians themselves.
Goldman makes a sensational prediction when he guesses that no more than 10 percent of the languages being spoken today will make it into the next century as living languages.
Europe will come out of the mess better than the Muslim world, because Europe has money.
Basic demographics: a rise in literacy goes with a fall in religious faith and a fall in fertility. Some cultures (such as Ancient Greece) simply lose the will to live. Goldman sees two countries where religious faith and fertility have not collapsed: America and Israel. India is also doing well.
But for the next few decades, that ancient Chinese curse seems likely to apply: "May you live in interesting times."
This book gets my highest recommendation.
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