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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower Paperback – March 15, 2016

4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 3,440 ratings

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One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.

For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?

Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents,
The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.

Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be.
The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.


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Editorial Reviews

Review

#1 National Bestseller

“China’s ambition to become the world’s dominant power has been there all along, virtually burned into the country’s cultural DNA and hiding, as [Pillsbury] says, in plain sight… The author is correct to assert that China constitutes, by far, the biggest national challenge to America’s position in the world today.”―
The Wall Street Journal

“Provocative…. detailed and rigorous. [Pillsbury is] right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our time.”―
Newsweek

“Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.”―
Foreign Affairs

“The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul Revere.”―Gordon Chang, The National Interest

“This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion. . . . Pillsbury . . . draw[s] on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense of this thesis. . . . In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful read.”―Elizabeth Economy, Council on Foreign Relations

“Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say . . . [in] this highly readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.”―
The Christian Science Monitor

“Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material…. Pillsbury’s key claim [is] that China… is methodically undertaking a ‘hundred-year marathon’ strategy to displace the United States as the global hegemon… The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy [and] the marathon is hardly over.”―
The Weekly Standard

“Following the Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, Americans agonized over ‘Who lost China?’ If we do not recognize the Chinese party-state for the predatory animal that it is, in 20 years the question we will be asking ourselves is ‘Who lost the world?’ The answer will be, ‘We did.’”―
The Washington Times

“A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense Department…. Fodder for concerned thought.”―
Kirkus Reviews

“This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in years. Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning from a core of Chinese ‘hard-liners’ who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today under Xi Jinping. Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American cooperation.”―Robert Kagan, author of
The World America Made and Of Paradise and Power

“A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become #1.”―Graham Allison, Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

“Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the ‘hawks’ in China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union. In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks’ views about the United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the middle of this century. In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington about a gradually reforming China. Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes on immediate relevance.”―James Mann, author of
About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, The China Fantasy, and Beijing Jeep

The Hundred-Year Marathon is based on work that Michael Pillsbury did for the CIA that landed him the Director’s Exceptional Performance Award. It is a fascinating chronicle of his odyssey from the ranks of the ‘panda-huggers’ to a principled, highly informed, and lonely stance alerting us to China’s long-term strategy of achieving dominance. He shows that we face a clever, entrenched, and ambitious potential enemy, suffused with the shrewdness of Sun Tzu conducting a determined search for the best way to sever our Achilles’ heel. We have vital work to do, urgently.”―R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence and chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

About the Author

Michael Pillsbury is the director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute and has served in presidential administrations from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Educated at Stanford and Columbia Universities, he is a former analyst at the RAND Corporation and research fellow at Harvard and has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and on the staff of four U.S. Senate committees. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He lives in Washington, D.C.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ St. Martin's Griffin; Reprint edition (March 15, 2016)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 352 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1250081343
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1250081346
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.35 x 0.95 x 8.2 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 3,440 ratings

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Customer reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars
4.7 out of 5
3,440 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book highly insightful, well-written, and detailed. They also describe it as scary and enlightening.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

151 customers mention "Content"148 positive3 negative

Customers find the book highly insightful, stimulating, and valuable for future US presidents. They also say it provides a good balance of history and background. Readers also say the book provides an eye-opener on what China is doing behind the scenes.

"...to do while laying on my back and this seemed like it was sufficiently stimulating enough that i wouldn't be bored...." Read more

"Very well written with a good balance of history and background combined with pseudo predictors and insights" Read more

"...The main points are terribly important - it is a book (in one form or another) that everyone should read, and the author clearly points out..." Read more

"...Pillsbury's book, "The Hundred Year Marathon" may be the most useful and insightful book on China I have read...." Read more

60 customers mention "Writing style"53 positive7 negative

Customers find the writing style very well written, with a good balance of history and background combined. They also say the author did a fantastic job skillfully introducing the reader to this complex geopolitical topic. Readers also say that the book is readable and easy to follow the theme.

"...very familiar with the topic but the author did a fantastic job skillfully introducing the reader to this complex geopolitical challenge we are..." Read more

"Very well written with a good balance of history and background combined with pseudo predictors and insights" Read more

"...The book is thoughtful and sobering, and offers insight into China’s posture vis-a-vis the west in the context of their 1,000 year written literary..." Read more

"...deep experience as a “China Hand,” make Pillsbury a compelling writer, with an equally compelling argument to match...." Read more

24 customers mention "Alarming"20 positive4 negative

Customers find the book scary and enlightening. They also say it's informative and not drama or sensationalism.

"As a native Chinese, I found this book both intimidating and encouraging...." Read more

"...The book is thoughtful and sobering, and offers insight into China’s posture vis-a-vis the west in the context of their 1,000 year written literary..." Read more

"...This book does not amount to fear-mongering...." Read more

"...Ominous but realistic, especially in view of the progress China has made over the past 45 years since the Nixon detente." Read more

9 customers mention "Writing quality"9 positive0 negative

Customers find the writing quality excellent, well structured, and credible. They also say the material is ground-breaking and eye-opening.

"For a used book great condition. Terrific value. Arrived quickly. Thanks, LC" Read more

"...a relatively easy read because of how interesting and important this material is...." Read more

"...Compelling and richly substantive case as to why the Trump administration's current engagement approach with China must be energetically supported..." Read more

"...noted practices of the chinese government it is a top-flight book, well-crafted, reasoned with clear data and reason...." Read more

7 customers mention "Author's viewpoint"3 positive4 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the author's viewpoint. Some appreciate the author’s perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective, while others find the book biased and partisan.

"...To be honest, I do think that the claims made by the author are biased, because they are quite based on the opinions of radicals in China and..." Read more

"I appreciated the author's perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective and how it has changed and obviously been informed over..." Read more

"I found the book hateful and partisan...." Read more

"...The author is balanced and demonstrates with evidence why he thinks China is pursuing a long term strategy of emerging as a superpower." Read more

The Hundred-Year Maraton
5 Stars
The Hundred-Year Maraton
I thought this book was going to be dry and boring, it turns out to be insightful and intriguing kept me on the edge of my seat. I read it from cover to cover in 20 days. Only time will tell if these are things to come, in the meantime learning to speak some mandarin might be wise.
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Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on February 1, 2021
This book is a must read for anyone concerned about their freedom, threats to that freedom and to the United States and her allies. Please read on...

I initially purchased this as an Audible's book, recommended by a friend, a few days prior to undergoing surgery. A corneal transplant (DMEK) plus cataract removal with an inter-ocular lens replacement in my left eye. I needed something to do while laying on my back and this seemed like it was sufficiently stimulating enough that i wouldn't be bored. I always loved suspense novels like those written by Robert Ludlum, Frederick Forsyth, Tom Clancy, John le Carre, etc. And I thought to myself, this might be even better. It is! It is the real deal!

As I was laying flat on my back. a position I must maintain for almost an entire week so the nitrogen bubble in my eye "glued" the grafted endothelial layer of skin to the back of my cornea, I enjoyed the calm, relaxing tone of the narrator's voice as he outlined, in somewhat astonishing detail, the author's experience about assignments, working for the United States, to collect information pertaining to the plans of China to become a democratic nation, enabling it's citizens human rights and reasonable autonomy.

Much of the U.S. policies toward China when Michael Pillsbury began his assignment, from the Presidencies of Nixon up to and including Bill Clinton, if my recollection is correct, revolved around assessing China's move to become a democratic nation. Which the author described later as wishful thinking.

I entirely finished this book in about three days and was able to move around when my brother contacted me by phone. We discussed this book and he sent me an article from Wall Street Journal "China Is National Security Threat No. 1" written by John Ratcliffe on Dec 3rd, 2020 in the opinion section. My brother works for an IT company that provides security for businesses, and during our conversation he recommended SANDWORM, another book I would highly recommend for the same reasons as the this book. It details how the Soviet Union, oops, I mean "Russia" used hacking technology to destroy the infrastructure and bombard the media with mis and dis information for political races in order to assume control of that country.

I would like to mention right now that once my eye had healed enough for me to remain in a vertical position for the entire day I read many of the negative reviews on this book and, as a result, purchased the Kindle edition of the book so I could reference the text to see if any of those claims were true. I also fact checked a enough material of this book to satisfy myself that this author knew what he was talking about. I think it pretty obvious what my research came back thumbs up for this book.

The bottom line is, if we do not stop fighting amongst ourselves, find some way to work together to address these threats to our nation and our freedom they will both be lost.
49 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on December 27, 2023
I highly recommend this book for those seek to gain a modicum of understanding regarding China’s long term plans, ambitions, and the strategic framework being utilized to fulfill those aims. I was not very familiar with the topic but the author did a fantastic job skillfully introducing the reader to this complex geopolitical challenge we are facing as nation.
7 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on February 27, 2024
Very well written with a good balance of history and background combined with pseudo predictors and insights
7 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on December 26, 2022
Let me be honest - I have not finished this book. But about halfway through, the repetition is not helping me want to keep going. It feels like a long pamphlet that someone thought should be a book.

The main points are terribly important - it is a book (in one form or another) that everyone should read, and the author clearly points out (and points out and points out) the essential elements in the threat that China presents to the United States and ultimately to the world. He gradually adds elements - and I have lived in foreign countries where I have seen the Chinese plan at work, first hand and up close and I have been issuing the same warnings for almost 30 years.

But as far as I have gotten - the basic theme is laid out and like a mediocre teacher dealing with a slow class, the points are made again and again. Now the last sections may open up new horizons, and if so, I will modify these notes.

On one hand, I urge people to read it. On the other - if you jump jump before the end, you will have received the essential message.
24 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on May 16, 2015
In some ways this book is as fantastical as “The Travels of Marco Polo.” It’s a disturbing account of the Chinese Communist Party’s obsession with displacing the Unites States as the world’s leading economic and political power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s China takeover. According to the author, becoming the world’s number-one power is China’s dream, and the goal of “The Hundred-Year Marathon.” Only China’s dream could become America's nightmare, because of the way China is going about it, which is through deception on a tall order: stealing technology rather than creating it themselves, embracing mercantilism rather than free trade and a free-market economy, demonizing America in Chinese school books, and poisoning their own environment and that of their neighbors with dangerously high levels of toxic pollutants. In a world where image is everything, China is carefully crafting an image of friendliness and cooperation; as being something of a victim of centuries of abuse by outside nations (Western Europe, Japan, the U.S.), and in need of a helping hand with modernization and of becoming a viable world economy and friendly U.S. ally. China wants America to give-and-give-and-give, while offering nothing of substance in return. Reading this book I couldn’t help thinking of Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope technique to beat a younger and stronger boxer (George Foreman). That seems to be China’s plan for overtaking the U.S.—to rope-a-dope America into complacency. By the time Washington’s leaders have figured out what China’s doing it will be too late; they will have achieved their ultimate of goal of becoming the world’s leading power. And, irony of ironies, we will have helped them do it.

Sound far-fetched? Michael Pillsbury makes a compelling case. He knows his subject well, having been a China observer since the 1960s, an advisor to presidents Richard Nixon to Barrack Obama, as well as serving in senior positions for the Defense Department, working in conjunction with the CIA, and being a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Pillsbury’s book comes at a time when China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping has been perhaps too candid, admitting he regrets the fall of the Soviet Union, his disdain for an independent Chinese judiciary, free speech, individuality, and human rights. He sees the Chinese people as grass that will bend in whatever direction he should expel his breath. Indeed, the thread that runs throughout Pillsbury book is fear: fear of the West, fear of China becoming democratic, fear of criticism, fear of being deceived, and most of all fear of China’s one-power rule being deposed. Indeed, one gets the feeling that the Chinese Communist Party leaders are jealous, selfish, petty, churlish, and childish. They are not about to release their grip on absolute power and have been cracking down since Xi Jinping took power in 2013. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal (“The Coming Chinese Crackup” — March 7, 2015), the endgame of communist rule has begun, and Xi’s campaign against dissent and corruption is only bringing the country closer to a breaking point.

I suggest reading the last chapter first (chapter 11—America as a Warring State) then proceed to the Introduction and go from there. The last chapter contains the author’s step-by-step advice on how to deal with China in an effective and constructive way while insuring America’s place as the world’s leading power. A better title for the chapter would have been, “Fighting Back.” It’s the good news in a book that’s filled with relentless pessimism, which at times I found a bit much. Having said that, the book is strong medicine that’s foul-tasting but necessary to keep the patient—us—in robust health and out in front, as a paradigm of democracy and fair-dealing. Five stars.
22 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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leon tang
5.0 out of 5 stars Master Piece, Deep Thoughts
Reviewed in Canada on July 18, 2023
This book is a master piece from Michael Pillsbury, he sees the unseen.
aditya kohale
5.0 out of 5 stars Superb read
Reviewed in India on February 14, 2024
Must read
The book brings to light how china has decieved America till now and how it ll surpass the lone present day superpower in the similar manner.
Very well articulated with various examples
Oscar Lambert
5.0 out of 5 stars Todo bien
Reviewed in Mexico on May 1, 2020
El libro Llegó antes de lo previsto y en excelentes condiciones
Simona R.
5.0 out of 5 stars A very excellent book!
Reviewed in Italy on January 16, 2020
A very excellent book!
O., Oliver
5.0 out of 5 stars Stuff you don‘t find in other books on China
Reviewed in Germany on August 8, 2019
Highly interesting, especially if you already did some reading on China‘s strategy and future development. Very different but well researched views in this book. The 1-star review here on Amazon (book shows racism, comparable to Elders of Zion Protocols) actually seems to prove the point of propaganda warfare and a West too ignorant and self-centred to understand long term thinking with a distinctly different world view.

You might also be interested in https://www.amazon.de/Unrestricted-Warfare-Chinas-Destroy-America/dp/1549510525/ref=pd_sim_14_3/260-9809775-6445846?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1549510525&pd_rd_r=f3c4d86f-0df9-4d1c-ab75-efc3a537a2c5&pd_rd_w=F0mI2&pd_rd_wg=M9c3D&pf_rd_p=b0773d2f-6335-4e3d-8bed-091e22ee3de4&pf_rd_r=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH&psc=1&refRID=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH
2 people found this helpful
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