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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower Hardcover – February 3, 2015
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One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
- Print length336 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherHenry Holt and Co.
- Publication dateFebruary 3, 2015
- Dimensions6.37 x 1.14 x 9.18 inches
- ISBN-101627790101
- ISBN-13978-1627790109
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Editorial Reviews
Review
#1 National Bestseller
“China’s ambition to become the world’s dominant power has been there all along, virtually burned into the country’s cultural DNA and hiding, as [Pillsbury] says, in plain sight… The author is correct to assert that China constitutes, by far, the biggest national challenge to America’s position in the world today.”―The Wall Street Journal
“Provocative…. detailed and rigorous. [Pillsbury is] right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our time.”―Newsweek
“I really enjoyed your book. . . . I very much advocate people read it because it's a very thoughtful book about what Chinese intentions are long-term.”―Fareed Zakaria, CNN
“Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.”―Foreign Affairs
“The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul Revere.”―Gordon Chang, The National Interest
“This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion. . . . Pillsbury . . . draw[s] on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense of this thesis. . . . In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful read.”―Elizabeth Economy, Council on Foreign Relations
“Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say . . . [in] this highly readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.”―The Christian Science Monitor
“Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material…. Pillsbury’s key claim [is] that China… is methodically undertaking a ‘hundred-year marathon’ strategy to displace the United States as the global hegemon… The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy [and] the marathon is hardly over.”―The Weekly Standard
“Following the Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, Americans agonized over ‘Who lost China?’ If we do not recognize the Chinese party-state for the predatory animal that it is, in 20 years the question we will be asking ourselves is ‘Who lost the world?’ The answer will be, ‘We did.’”―The Washington Times
“A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense Department…. Fodder for concerned thought.”―Kirkus Reviews
“This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in years. Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning from a core of Chinese ‘hard-liners’ who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today under Xi Jinping. Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American cooperation.”―Robert Kagan, author of The World America Made and Of Paradise and Power
“A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become #1.”―Graham Allison, Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
“Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the ‘hawks’ in China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union. In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks’ views about the United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the middle of this century. In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington about a gradually reforming China. Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes on immediate relevance.”―James Mann, author of About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, The China Fantasy, and Beijing Jeep
“The Hundred-Year Marathon is based on work that Michael Pillsbury did for the CIA that landed him the Director’s Exceptional Performance Award. It is a fascinating chronicle of his odyssey from the ranks of the ‘panda-huggers’ to a principled, highly informed, and lonely stance alerting us to China’s long-term strategy of achieving dominance. He shows that we face a clever, entrenched, and ambitious potential enemy, suffused with the shrewdness of Sun Tzu conducting a determined search for the best way to sever our Achilles’ heel. We have vital work to do, urgently.”―R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence and chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Henry Holt and Co. (February 3, 2015)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 336 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1627790101
- ISBN-13 : 978-1627790109
- Item Weight : 1 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.37 x 1.14 x 9.18 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #71,380 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #44 in International Diplomacy (Books)
- #66 in Chinese History (Books)
- #70 in Asian Politics
- Customer Reviews:
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Customer reviews
Top reviews from the United States
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First, let me state the strong point. This book is great for being able to read key quotes from primary Chinese documents and sources. Most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, so I want to focus my review on the underwhelming parts of this book.
Pillsbury is upfront about the fact that he used to be a duped fool and had poor analysis. He claims that he learned from it and has now changed his views to be more wary.
To me, it seems, he is still falling into the same trap of being naive. The enemy is still a couple steps ahead of Pillsbury.
His coverage of Golitsyn, a Russian defector from 1961, which opens up the book, is terrible.
He dismisses Golitsyn by saying he was a "conspiracy theorist and would later claim that British prime minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informant." That's quite a claim by Pillsbury!
In December of 1962, the pro-America labor party leader Gaitskell went to Russia. In January of 1963 he died of sickness at age 56. Harold Wilson took over the labor party and became Prime Minister. This is a guy who in the 1940s had been traveling to Russia.
Okay so Golitsyn, who defected in 1961, says that Wilson is a KGB agent... So how does Wilson rule? By keep close ties to KGB agents and handing out jobs to KGB agents.
Then Pillsbury goes on to imply Golitsyn was a Russian plant, notwithstanding the fact that Golitsyn helped catch Philby.
Pillsbury says the real truth teller was Nosenko. This was a guy who defected right after Oswald killed JFK to say that he had special information showing the KGB was not behind Oswald. He even claimed that, though Oswald had been a marine, operated sensitive radar tech in Japan, and lived in Russia, the KGB had never tried to recruit him.
I mean, give me a break! His take on Golitsyn and Nosenko is so silly it's hard for me to trust him.
A couple more critiques on the China parts of his book...
He frames China as being run by the "war hawks." But China is officially run by Communists. Xi sure seems like a Communist. But Pillsbury talks very little, or not at all, about their Communist ideology. A rather striking and bizarre omission.
Another problem, his views on Assassin's Mace are myopic. He never talks about the possibility that North Korea itself if their Mace. Further, despite the fact that he repeatedly quotes Chinese manuals which explicitly talk about using electromagnetic weapons--"The side with electromagnetic combat superiority will make full use of that Assassin's Mace weapon to win naval victory"--he will only very briefly refers euphemistically to an "EMP generation" to attack us... Little or no mention of nuclear EMP attack. He keeps honing in on laser threats, or missiles to destroy our satellites, when it would take just a single nuclear EMP strike to achieve all the things that China says it wants to achieve w Assassin Mace.
So bizarre.
What an eye opener.
The US has a very open, trusting and helping culture, which separates this country from any other in the world and makes me proud to be an American (or at least it used to, but I believe we'll make it back). And China is taking serious advantage of that culture; compounded by the useless, bi-partisan bickering of our politics, both of which are playing right into their hands. Like a magician that distracts our attention from what is really going on. But this is not for entertainment, it is to build China in its Politburo's (not people's no less) interest, at the expense of severely, and potentially irreparably diminishing the United States. I pray to God the country wakes up in time to save ourselves or our children, who already are, will pay en even more tremendous price.
By A. Kincaid on October 19, 2018
Top reviews from other countries
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account.
- the views presented by the author although may be correct and deeply researched (the Chinese are likely to have a plan which is enabled through an undemocratic yet more consistent political system in that they dont live from tweet to tweet as US politicians do nowadays) however are in no way balanced. When he refers to stolen technology by the US from the British in the 19th century, it is in the context of this is how the Chinese have analysed the US's path to development. It could be less biased and more apologetic by comparing China's policies to US ones in the 19th Century
- nowhere does he 'excuse' the Chinese for viewing the US as a global hegemon that uses economic tools and the USD post war institutional infrastructure to unilaterally impose punishment on its enemies as well as its military power to again act as a hegemon
In summary, he is a US hawk who is responsible for partly developing Trump's China policy. Nowhere is it explained that the US population enjoyed cheap imports and its labour and businesses could focus on higher value added products and technology. Nevertheless, a good book to read to understand how current US thinking towards China is shaped.
MP seems sour grapes for the US has been outsmarted and outmanoeuvred by the Chinese.
For me it’s More like an attempt for Michael to build up an explanation or theoretical foundation for the increasingly confrontational and aggressive China policy proposed by the GOP, and more recently, the bipartisan leadership. I am not going to say that’s good or bad, Americans have their analysis and approach to cope with us. All we need to do is to understand what some leading authorities think of us and, always be eager to learn more about and from your rival, and be prepared.











