An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition 2nd Edition

by Robert Winkler (Author)

7 customer reviews

ISBN-13: 978-0964793842

ISBN-10: 0964793849

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The 2nd Edition of Dr. Winkler's classic book, first published in 1972, includes access to electronic files, Perspectives, and updated material. However, the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and decision have not really changed. This book gives a foundation in the concepts, enables readers to understand the results of Bayesian inference and decision, provides tools to model real-world problems and carry out basic analyses, and prepares readers for further exploration.

Please note that the material the publisher used to provide on an accompanying CD is now available from the publisher's web site and the CD is no longer provided.

An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition

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Product Details

Hardcover: 464 pages
Publisher: Probabilistic Publishing; 2nd edition (January 15, 2003)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0964793849
ISBN-13: 978-0964793842
Product Dimensions: 1.2 x 7.2 x 10.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 2.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #729,297 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1552 in Books > Textbooks > Science & Mathematics > Mathematics > Statistics
- #2298 in Books > Science & Math > Mathematics > Applied > Probability & Statistics

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Top Customer Reviews

Get Past The Title... This Is A Key Reference Book

ByW. J. Hasketton July 22, 2003

Format: Hardcover

Not only is this a top notch instruction tool from a well-respected author, but for anyone whose work or interests lay in the risk and decision analysis field, this is a "must have" reference book. It may seem oxymoronic to say that a book on statistical inference, "probability", or Bayesian methods is interesting, but that is exactly what the author has achieved. Winkler makes what many of us may view to be a complex and intimidating topic understandable and enables practical implementation of the concepts. More than just a simple re-printing, the second edition provides updated references, additional readings and assessments of developments in the chapter scope since the first edition.
The initial chapter in the book provides an introduction to probabilistic thought and Bayes' theorem. Following chapters deal with discrete and continuous distributions, decision theory (practical applications...including influencing factors such as utility and subjective probability), Value of Information, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing (quite meaningful for six-sigma thinkers, efficient resource appraisal decisions, and other business applications).
Practitioners will have to get past the rather academic title. If you model or work with uncertainty distributions, dependency, correlation, or contingent portfolio analysis, this book will provide the necessary conceptual understanding that will save you time and allow you to provide a better, more valid product.
The CD that accompanies the book provides standard reference tables and work-throughs for many of the problems/examples. All figures found in the book are included as are all chapter exercises (MS Word format). It also provides trial versions of decision software such as Lumina's Analytica (object based simulation) and TreeAge's Data (decision trees). A series of distribution generators are included as a plus for those of us who have a simulation modeling bent.
There is folklore that is tied this title. So well received was the first edition that rumors persist regarding people resorting to beaten up photocopies of the book. You don't have to do that anymore.

0Comment 48 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

Pleasant math anybody can understand (I can)

ByClaude Lamberton August 8, 2013

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

I like paintings the same way I like math: I cannot paint and I cannot math, but I really enjoy it. I have three recurrent problems with math books. (1) the author usually imagines that the reader has a certain level that I (usually) do not have. So I get stuck. (2) many mathematicians assume that some detail is easy or obvious, consequently they leave me in the dust without a word of pity or any explanation. (3) Some try to explain math or physics without any math at all. It is a guarantee that then I am not going to learn anything (I know, I tried that too).
NOT HERE. Winkler takes you by the hand in this very interesting book, nicely written and humorous and he does not let your hand go.
Why should you be interested in Bayes? Well, a little bit of stats can tell you how things were in the past. You collect data and retrieve a model. Probabilities tell you how things will be in the future. You have a model and you predict the data. Bayes is so much the key to probabilities that his admirers took turns to go brush the mold from his tomb (he died in 1761. His tomb is in Bunhill Fields Cemetery in London and was well restored in 2007). It is one of 2 math places you want to visit in London (the other one is the pump of Broadwick Street, where statistician John Snow discovered the origin of the cholera outbreak of 1854. You go see the British museum, Covent Garden, Snow and Bayes, you own the world.

22 comments 4 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

ByKevin Carl Santoson October 20, 2015

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

good book for introductory bayesian inference! I used it during my undergrad

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Bybayespsychon May 17, 2015

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

accurate item descriptions and fast delivery!

0Comment One person found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

Bayesian Inference and Decision

ByJames E. Roseon August 20, 2005

Format: Hardcover

This is definitely useful for someone going for an MBA or other managerial degree. I would not have been able to do my class assignment without it. I am taking a graduate course in Statistics and this reference may help me achieve an A.

11 comment 5 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

ByJames W Butler Jron April 10, 2015

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

Good book.

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Just Bought what was Requested

ByKaren A. Barschon January 3, 2014

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

Book arrived in perfect condition. I understand this is the book to get for math information. Was glad to be able to get it as a gift.

0Comment One person found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

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