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Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets Hardcover – Illustrated, October 3, 2008

by Anthony Crescenzi (Author)

4.1 27 ratings

Part of: PERSONAL FINANCE & INVESTMENT (16 books)

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In Investing from the Top Down, Anthony Crescenzi, esteemed financial author and chief bond strategist for Miller Tabak & Co., explains how to develop new, highly effective investment strategies by taking a macro view of the factors shaping industries and markets. Emphasizing the importance of economic and market cycles (as opposed to a bottom-up approach, which places valuation ahead of the big picture) top-down investing is better suited for today's global economy and will likely become the dominant strategy in the future.

Crescenzi provides more than fifty tools for analyzing domestic and international trends and indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest and exchange rates, and energy prices. He then explains how to narrow your search down to region, total sales, price levels, competition, and entry/exit from market to make astute buying and selling decisions. Crescenzi explains why “thematic” investing is the ideal approach for:

Taking full advantage of exchange traded funds (ETFs)
Using the policies of central banks to steer your investments
Designing diversification best suited for the long term
Using sector selection to insulate your portfolio from risk
Maximizing profits when market sentiment spikes or plummets
Investing from the Top Down covers every major financial instrument and investment choice, from bonds, treasuries, and currencies to real estate, private equity, and emerging markets. Crescenzi concludes with an extensive list of market indicators, providing specific advice on how to exploit them using a top-down investment strategy.
Investing from the Top Down provides everything you'll need to develop a sound strategy rather than making isolated choices. Comprehensive and forward-thinking, it will place you ahead of the game today and take you well into the 21st Century.

From the Publisher

Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., is the author of The Strategic Bond Investor and Stigum's Money Market, 4th Edition. He frequently appears on business and finance programs, including NBC's “Wall Street Journal Report,” CNBC, and Bloomberg. He is a contributor to realmoney.com.

About the Author

Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., is the author of The Strategic Bond Investor and Stigum's Money Market, 4th Edition. He frequently appears on business and finance programs, including NBC's “Wall Street Journal Report,” CNBC, and Bloomberg. He is a contributor to realmoney.com.

Part of series

PERSONAL FINANCE & INVESTMENT
Print length

304 pages
Language

English
Publisher

McGraw Hill
Publication date

October 3, 2008
Dimensions

6.2 x 1 x 9.1 inches
ISBN-10

0071543848
ISBN-13

978-0071543842
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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ McGraw Hill; 1st edition (October 3, 2008)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0071543848
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0071543842
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.27 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.2 x 1 x 9.1 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #1,411,193 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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4.1 27 ratings

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Tenny Locke

Speedy and good condition

Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2023

Verified Purchase

No problems, the way I like it

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AL

Follow the recommendations and YOU WILL MAKE MONEY

Reviewed in the United States on February 6, 2009

Verified Purchase

All smart investors know that 1) Wall street is infested with SHARKS and 2) Most corporations are being run by a bunch of CROOKS. With that reality in mind, it is then a fact that long term buy and hold is dead and only a FOOLS play. The only game in town is hit and run and this book shows you how to identify the trends that can make you big money. GOOD BOOK

4 people found this helpful

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BlacklionCTA

A Guide From the Master

Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2011

Verified Purchase

An outstanding macro economic book from a master in the craft.

Anthony Crescenzi was responsible for revising Stigum's Money Market and carries his level of dedication and expertise to this work.

How much better I would've been had I been able to study a book like this 5 or 10 years ago and seen the coming crash that began in 2007.

One issue that keeps it from being 5 starts. The Golden Compass list includes several indicators that are not available without subscription. That has frustrated me as I have tried to accumulate as much data from the Golden Compass indicators he recommends and chart and analyze them to where they can be integrated into my investing. It would be nice to acknowledge this and suggest possible alternate sources.

The text and discussion leading up to the Golden Compass chapter(s) is outstanding and very well written and easy to read.

One person found this helpful

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Ozan S

Finally a Book on Top-Down Investing!

Reviewed in the United States on December 29, 2008

After the credit crisis it became obvious that one cannot base their investment decisions only on the domestic or company specific factors. What does an investor in India have to do with the subprime mortgages in the USA? nothing? Well he lost about 70 percent value of his investments due to the crisis.

This book came right at the time when I was thinking a top-down perspective was in order for making investment decisions as bottom-up approach failed and the markets became more integrated than ever before.

Here the book goes: First few chapters explain why top-down investing is a must today, the changing world, advantages of top-down, so on. After that one of my favorite chapters come. Chapter 4- Thematic Trading and Investing, where the author shows how themes (major ideas, trends) may be used in top-down investing, gives a few examples and guidance. Another big chapter is Chapter 6- Central Banking Is a Top-Down Affair, where the author explains the transmission effects of Fed policies on the financial markets, (stock prices, credit spreads, dollar, so on), Fed's impact on stock sectors, and commodity prices.

Here is an excerpt :" Keep in mind that, when credit spreads widen, it is important to determine whether the widening is because of a liquidly shock, as was case in 1998 and 2007-2008 when investors... or because of credit-quality shock, as was the case in 2001. The distinction is important because..."

I also like chapter 7- Filling the Gaps on Value Investing (for those who want to stick with bottom-up) and Chapter 9- Do the Math, where the author gives some examples of how to do calculations to see if market has valued something wrong or if an investing opportunity exists.

At the end of every chapter, the author summarizes key points and lists the key indicators (the "golden compasses") mentioned in the chapter.

Finally, the 60-page chapter, chapter 14- The Top 40 Top-Down Indicators goes through the 40 indicators selected by the author. For each indicator "its power", "where to find it", "the view from the top down" and "how to nail it" is briefly explained.

Here is a few things I didn't like: 1- The author consistently refers to financial statements (whether its balance sheet, income statement or statement of cash flows) as "balance sheets", which is a little annoying. 2- Occasionally after giving some information about the subject, the author doesn't mention anything as to its application and leaves some question marks. One example to this is on page 205, in a chapter about the market sentiment. The author mentions "surveys of aggregate duration levels" as a way to track sentiment in the treasury market. "Aggregate duration surveys... capture the average duration level among the portfolio managers surveyed. .. look for the degree to which fixed income managers are long or short relative to the benchmark index. For example a reading of 98 percent would indicate that on average portfolios had duration levels that were 98 percent of the benchmark indexes.." And? How do we make use of this information? Since the portfolio managers created a lower duration they expect interest rates going up? If so should we expect the same? How should we interpret this and act? These questions are not addressed. But again, in general explanations suffice.

To wrap it up, the book is full of useful information and some sections are well worth reading twice. The book is similar to Ken Fisher's the Only 3 Questions.. But the author does not try to push his opinions into your head like Ken and gives more macroeconomic information that would be useful in investing. Highly recommended to those who are interested in the title.

25 people found this helpful

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Amazon Customer

But very interesting tools and nice key takeaways closing chapters

Reviewed in the United States on July 14, 2016

Verified Purchase

lots of space (time) spent on criticizing opposite investment strategies, i.e. Value Investing. But very interesting tools and nice key takeaways closing chapters.

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Author and Investment guru

Perfect for these times and rarely covered

Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2009

One of the key lessons of the financial crisis is that macro-related factors can overwhelm all other factors and influence the performance of both the financial markets and the economy. Investing from the Top Down gives investors tools that they can use to either augment their current approach to the markets (for example, the popular bottom-up, value-style investing approach), or to adopt as their main investment approach. Critics of the book have thus far missed the point of the book, which is to first argue why it is such a good approach and show how to apply some of the best tools toward making optimal investment decisions.

Within Investing from the Top Down you will find solid examples of where top-down investing worked in the past and how it works on an on-going basis. There is specificity, for example, within the section on the indicators--dubbed "golden compasses," that details what the indicators are best used for and the specific investment strategies to consider depending on the behavior of the indicators.

Few books have been written about top-down, macro-style investing save for the recounts of select macro stars such as George Soros. The book therefore has a rightful place in the world of solid investment books.

4 people found this helpful

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Seeker

preaching to the converted

Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2009

there is nothing practical in this book. complete waste of money. it's saddening to see valuable resources (papers) wasted on this useless book.

3 people found this helpful

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Avi Cohen

Dont tell me, Show ME!!

Reviewed in the United States on February 20, 2009

I was more than a little disappointed with this book as I thought it might actually describe some strategies the author uses to invest from the top down, or even a process. Instead half the book is filled with reasons why you should invest from the top down. Wow!!! Great job Anthony, but dont you think the purchasers of the book are already interested in top-down investing? Inside the house of money, The Alchemy of Finance, Mr Market Miscalculates are all better choices.

The only good thing about the book is that is stresses you should do your own research (agreed) and it tells you some websites where to do so (BIS, Fed in Print, World Bank, etc).

Nonetheless, if you read finance/investing/trading books in the hope of getting just 1 or 2 good ideas, this book will probably have something for you. Just don't expect anything earth-shattering.

24 people found this helpful

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