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The Keys to the White House Paperback – July 5, 2000

by Allan J. Lichtman (Author)

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With The Keys to the White House, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election from 1860 through Clinton's 1992 defeat of Bush and reelection in 1996, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to know why Al Gore will be the next president should not miss this book.

Print length

208 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Lexington Books
Publication date

July 5, 2000
Dimensions

5.96 x 0.61 x 9 inches
ISBN-10

073910179X
ISBN-13

978-0739101797
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Editorial Reviews

Review

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book. (David Broder)

This is a must book for political junkies who want to answer one important question about any campaign: Who's going to win? (Baltimore Sun)

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House. (Roll Call)

If you're into American presidential politics, The Keys to the White House is a must, and fun, read. (Toronto Sun)

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable. (Schneider, William)

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman is Professor of History and Chair of the Department of History at American University.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Lexington Books (July 5, 2000)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 208 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 073910179X
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0739101797
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.96 x 0.61 x 9 inches

Customer Reviews:
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Allan J. Lichtman

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Allan J. Lichtman received his PhD from Harvard University in 1973 and is currently

Distinguished Professor of History at American University in Washington, D.C. He specializes

in American political history and the presidency. Dr. Lichtman has authored or co-authored nine

books, and hundreds of scholarly and popular articles. His latest book is The Case for

Impeachment (Dey Street books, 2017), was an independent book store best seller, an

Amazon.com bestseller in several academic categories, and a Newsweek, best new book release.

Dr. Lichtman’s book FDR and the Jews (Harvard, 2013, with Richard Breitman), won

the National Jewish Book Award in American Jewish History. It was a 2013 New York Times

editor’s choice, and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize in History. His book, White

Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement (Grove/Atlantic 2008), was

a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in non-fiction. The Teaching Company

produced his video lectures on Great Presidents as part of their “Great Courses” series.

Dr. Lichtman is the co-developer of the Keys system that has successfully predicted the

outcome of every presidential election since 1984. In September 2016, he defied the

conventional wisdom to predict the election of Donald Trump. In early 2016, Rowman &

Littlefield published the sixth edition of his Keys book series, Predicting the Next President: The

Keys to the White House 2016.

Dr. Lichtman has lectured extensively in the United States and abroad. He has provided

commentary for all major television and radio outlets and is regularly quoted by leading

newspapers and magazines worldwide. He has served as an expert witness in more than 90

federal civil rights cases, including recent landmark cases challenging restrictive voting laws in

North Carolina and Texas. As an expert for the U. S. Commission on Civil Rights Dr. Lichtman

discovered that the outcome of the 2000 presidential election turned on the vast disparity in rates

at which officials rejected ballots cast by blacks and whites in Florida. Dr. Lichtman received the

American University Scholar/Teacher of the year award for 1992-3, the University’s highest

academic honor.

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Kindle Customer

I Enjoyed The Key System

Reviewed in the United States on October 2, 2020

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I think this is a great system that is also a framework for developing systems where people are the focus in terms of the goal, in what people subjectively think matters as to the outcome. I also like the idea of focusing on things that matter first, I.e. things that influence and tend to predict more accurately the results. I also liked at the end what he recommended didn't matter that people say does matter in a presidential race. Maybe some of them matter a bit, but probably not nearly as much as the key points given.

One question I would have for the author is whether the 2020 pandemic should be a factor, though it seems rare to occur, may be a serious and "key" issue whenever that magnitude of a thing happens.

Reviewed in the United States on January 18, 2017

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He was right! Saw him prior to the elections and could not believe this could be but it was

One person found this helpful

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Morellwj3

Did the keys fail foe 2016 election

Reviewed in the United States on December 26, 2016

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Very interesting, but did the keys fail in the 2016 presidential election

2 people found this helpful

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Errol M. Brouchoud

13 keys

Reviewed in the United States on October 10, 2011

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A very good 'guide' to predicting the potential outcome of the 2012 election...The author has been 100% accurate for all pres elections since 1980!!!!

3 people found this helpful

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Amazon Customer

Betting on Election

Reviewed in the United States on May 2, 2016

Verified Purchase

Good ideas but easy to look back. Much qualitative judgement to support statistical premise. Let's see published predictions first.

4 people found this helpful

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Chessman

Primary

Reviewed in the United States on November 17, 2020

Does he have a prediction for who will win the primaries?

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rwgo

Best book on predicting presidential elections

Reviewed in the United States on May 21, 2009

No matter your political leanings, this is the definitive book on presidential elections. Think they're all about the campaign? Think Nixon lost because he sweated on TV or that Dukakis lost because of the Willie Horton ad? Think again.

Lichtman relies on sound science to show what really matters in presidential elections-that is, how well the incumbent party has done at governing. It is quite refreshing after hearing the talking heads' saying that McCain lost because he picked Palin or because he was too old, when the reality is that any Democrat would have beaten any Republican in 2008.

3 people found this helpful

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Doug Samuelson

Entertainingly written, based on solid science

Reviewed in the United States on February 1, 2004

The casual reader might not realize it, but this book is a significant piece of social science. Lichtman and Soviet seismologist (!) Volodia Keilis-Borok threw about 300 variables into a computer and let it find the ones that differentiate between popular-vote winners and losers in every Presidential election from 1860 through 1980. (For those few who would know and care, they used what is known in the English-language literature as kernel discriminant function analysis.) The model produced correct calls in the elections since. This is remarkable. 1988 and 1992 were not easy, as the polls changed dramatically during the campaigns. In 2000, only two sources called Gore's popular-vote win: the last Zogby poll before the election, and the 13 Keys nearly a year in advance! Many political scientists, pundits, and commentators are unhappy with this model, since it implies that much of the ideology, campaign strategy and tactics, image polishing, etc. they care so much about don't really affect the outcome: it's about governance, not campaigning. Ignore their howls of protest. The model works, and Lichtman has explained it well, in easily readable style.

19 people found this helpful

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The Keys to the White House Paperback – July 5, 2000

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