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Lessons from the Great Depression (Lionel Robbins Lectures)
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Lessons from the Great Depression provides an integrated view of the depression, covering the experience in Britain, France, Germany, and the United States.
Do events of the 1930s carry a message for the 1990s? Lessons from the Great Depression provides an integrated view of the depression, covering the experience in Britain, France, Germany, and the United States. It describes the causes of the depression, why it was so widespread and prolonged, and what brought about eventual recovery.
Peter Temin also finds parallels in recent history, in the relentless deflationary course followed by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the British government in the early 1980s, and in the dogged adherence by the Reagan administration to policies generated by a discredited economic theory--supply-side economics.
- ISBN-100262700441
- ISBN-13978-0262700443
- PublisherMIT Press
- Publication dateOctober 8, 1991
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions8.01 x 5.11 x 0.4 inches
- Print length211 pages
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The author seems more intent on promoting his own views of the Depression and the advantages of socialism than in presenting a balanced view of an event that was due to many factors, most of which could be interpreted in several ways. Maybe I just expected too much but I was annoyed by his constant references to equilibrium , an idea that doesn't fit with the real world that is in a constant state of flux.
Initial shock
Building on his previous book (Did monetary forces cause the Great Depression?) where he brilliantly attacked Milton Friedman's analysis, he presents in these `Lionel Robbins Lectures' his overall view of the catastrophic event: the initial shock, the causes of the depression and the (too) late recovery.
What changed fundamentally the Western world politically and economically was the First World War. It changed completely existing demographics, agricultural and industrial production and capital movements.
Gold standard
But, after the war, political leaders returned to the `gold standard' ideology to resolve international commercial and financial problems. This regime imposed fixed values of national currencies in terms of gold. Balance of payments deficits had to be adjusted by deflation (a change in the domestic price level), not by devaluations (a change in the exchange rate).
When in 1929 a severe economic downturn arrived, the wrong medicine was administered: deflation and contractionary monetary policies (tight credit) which accentuated the downturn and, in fact, discouraged economic activity. The outcome was a massive Depression.
Recovery
The decline was halted by clairvoyant political leaders and economists who understood that governmental intervention (like public works) and easy credit were needed as countercyclical measures. They adopted `socialist' measures: public regulation or ownership of the basic economic activities (utilities, banking), wage fixing and the introduction of the welfare State (a safety for everyone).
M. Friedman, B. Bernanke, Smoot-Hawley tariff
Peter Temin criticizes M. Friedman's (the Depression was not caused by banking panics) and B. Bernanke's (banking failures did not decrease aggregate demand) analyses as well as those who see the Smoot-Hawley tariff as the main culprit (the fall in export demand was only a small part of the story).
Today, the political leaders have learned their lessons. By massive capital injections by the State and easy credit (zero interest rates) together with public investments, they try to avoid a monstrous depression (up to a fall of 30 % in certain industries).
This book is a must read for all economists and for all those interested in the history of mankind.
The Great Depression was the direct result, he says, of the breakdown of peace in the first decade of the twentieth century. The international spirit of co-operation that had existed throughout most of the second half of the 19th century evaporated with the European struggles for empire. So when crisis loomed in the late 1920s all the lifeboats were full of holes. Franco-German rivallry, the demise of the British Empire and isolationism in the United States all produced paralysis when leadership was needed most.
When leadership finally did arrive, it came in the form of social democracy and labour market rigidities which put a floor under the markets but extended the depression in ways not dissimilar to Japan in the 1990s.
If you like your economics filled with Keynes and history this is for you. If Friedman or Schumpeter is more to your taste, then this is worth reading just to see what the other side thinks.
Great stuff.



