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Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Paperback – Illustrated, June 1, 2004

4.6 out of 5 stars 514

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"A pioneering work of science."―Business Insider

"[This book] helped launch modern environmental computer modeling and began our current globally focused environmental debate . . . . a scientifically rigorous and credible warning."―The Nation 

In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update.

Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet.

Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes.

In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste.

Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.


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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Updated for the second time since 1992, this book, by a trio of professors and systems analysts, offers a pessimistic view of the natural resources available for the world's population. Using extensive computer models based on population, food production, pollution and other data, the authors demonstrate why the world is in a potentially dangerous "overshoot" situation. Put simply, overshoot means people have been steadily using up more of the Earth's resources without replenishing its supplies. The consequences, according to the authors, may be catastrophic: "We... believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain. And it will occur within the lifetimes of many who are alive today." After explaining overshoot, the book discusses population and industrial growth, the limits on available resources, pollution, technology and, importantly, ways to avoid overshoot. The authors do an excellent job of summarizing their extensive research with clear writing and helpful charts illustrating trends in food consumption, population increases, grain production, etc., in a serious tome likely to appeal to environmentalists, government employees and public policy experts.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

John N. Cooper, for AxisofLogic.com-
This is a wonderful book. Originally published in 1972 as Limits to Growth and refreshed in 1992 in Beyond the Limits, the authors have now issued a 30-year appraisal [Chelsea Green Publishing, ISBN 1-931498-58-X], in which they examine the progress made both in their understanding of the mechanisms underlying the impact of humanity on the world ecology and of steps taken toward remediating the accelerating approach to trainwreck that is mankind's ill-managed and uncontrolled 'footprint' on this planet's environment.

Briefly, humanity has overshot the limits of what is physically and biologically sustainable. That overshoot WILL lead to the collapse of the planetary environment's ability to support not only our species but much of the rest of the biosphere if we do not act rapidly and effectively to reduce our footprint. These conclusions provide reasons for both optimism and alarm: optimism because humanity has demonstrated its capacity to act appropriately in one specific instance; and alarm because thirty years have been largely wasted since the consequences of our failing to act were detailed. There is still time but the need to act quickly and effectively is urgent. The authors demonstrate that the most critical areas needing immediate attention are: population; wasteful, inefficient growth; and pollution. They show how attention to all three simultaneously can result in returning the human footprint on the environment to manageable, sustainable size, while sharply reducing the disparity between human well-being and fostering a generous quality-of-life worldwide. Absent this, the prospects are grim indeed.

The book is divided into three sections, the first outlining in principle the authors' systems analytical approach to understanding the planet's ecology. Their presentation is clear and comprehensible with an abundance of charts and figures that make visualizing the concepts easy. They successfully avoid the pitfalls of many technical presentations by using familiar analogies and largely avoiding professional jargon. As a result readers come away with insights not just into global interconnectedness of inputs, outputs, accumulation and feedback but also the significance of such dynamics in local, even personal, situations.

The second section deals with the authors' updated and revised modeling program, World3, which they utilize to test the plausible effects of changes in human political, economic and social behavior on the environment. Their discussion of World3 focuses on the assumptions for, and results of, a variety calculational scenarios. Details of their latest programming revisions are reserved for an index. Repeatedly they emphasize that their results are NOT prescriptive, but merely descriptive in general terms of likely consequences of humanity's failure or success in rising to meet the issues cited. Again excellent graphics for the various scenarios allow the reader to see at a glance what different approaches toward rectifying past, present and future environmental damage may have.

The final chapters describe options open to humanity that the authors believe have the best chance of avoiding social, economic and probably political collapse in the next century or so. We have a choice: the human experiment, possibly even the biological experiment, that is life on this planet can yet succeed and persist in a sustainable way. But to do so will require our species as whole consciously and deliberately to take immediate, remediating steps, now, seriously and adequately to address the issues we have so far failed to do so effectively. It IS up to us. © Copyright 2005 by AxisofLogic.com.

-- John N. Cooper

"In 1972, The Limits to Growth was published as a clarion call to begin changing the way the world worked so we safely made it to 2050-2070. The authors were clear that the path of change needed to begin "now" so we made a course correction within the next 30 years. Sadly, the message they wrote got badly misunderstood and by 30 years later, scores of critiques to the book claimed the authors warned that the world would run out of oil and other scare resources by 1990 or 2000. It is time for the world to re-read Limits to Growth! The message of 1972 is far more real and relevant in 2004 and we wasted a valuable 30 years of action plans by misreading the message of the first book."--Matthew R. Simmons, energy analyst and founder, Simmons & Company International, The world's largest energy investment banking practice

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Chelsea Green Publishing; Illustrated edition (June 1, 2004)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 338 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 193149858X
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1931498586
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1 x 9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.6 out of 5 stars 514

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Customer reviews

4.6 out of 5 stars
4.6 out of 5
514 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on October 23, 2010
I think this book very clearly and understandably describes the bigger problems humanity is facing. I think it is honestly the best book I have read related to Sustainable Development. It is able to cut through the noice around all the discussions of climate change, no climate change, peak oil or no peak oil, overpopulation e.t.c. The book gives a model and a deeper understanding on how every thing is linked together, and a clear picture of how when one variable of the system changes, it will effect all the other variables. I truly cherish this introduction to system dynamics as well.

The authors do not claim to have have all the answers, or the perfect model of the world, but he book stills gives a very good picture of linkage, cause and effect in a complex system. Nothing can be said with certainty about future developments, it all rests on the choices we make. This is true for each individual, but also true for the choices we collectively make as a society. What is also true is that whatever we choose, it we will have an effect, and outcome, and we all make these decisions within a systems with certain rules, equations and feedback loops. The rules, equations and feedback-loops for how we operate as a society can be changed by choice, but the responses of the natural world, for what we depend for all we have, can not so easily be changed.

I hope to see this book as obligatory reading for any higher education or management training in the future; it really would help the public discourse stay on topic of the really critically discussions, and not so easily get sidetracked and polarized by claims from different special interest groups within the realm of Sustainable Development.
6 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on October 13, 2023
in perfect new condition
Reviewed in the United States on April 23, 2015
It makes so much sense---we are in overshoot on our way to collapse. In such simple and convincing ways, these process engineers lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned growth ecomonics. And they show how making substantial yet not impossible changes could change the fortunes and bring us back to a sustainable balance. Do they overly-discount the potential benefits of new technology yet to be discovered to prevent collapse? I hope to hell they do because if there is anything that is clear, it is that human nature has 1) blind faith in new technology to save us (e.g. how else could nuclear power/waste be justified?) and 2) there is no way that humans will make substantial changes prior to collapse--balance will only be achieved afterwards and of course that means it will be less-rational, more-drastic, less-controllable, more-expensive, more-devastating, etc.
6 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on March 31, 2014
The LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study. A principal difference, of course, is that advances in computing power have far exceeded probably even the most optimistic expectations in the 1970s, and we can see with greater precision exactly that the effects of our activities are on our tiny planet. Another difference is that many of the trends studied in the initial work can now be confirmed 30 years later.

The authors' conclusion is that we have not done much to ameliorate the damage we are doing to Earth, and implicitly to ourselves, by what we have done in the intervening 30 years. We still produce too many offspring, consume too many finite resources, despoil to much of nature's waste-absorbing capacity, and seem to be stuck in a system that inexorably demands still more of the same.

But all is not lost. Read this in conjunction with Jordan Randers follow-on study entitled "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years". He uses the same "systems approach" used in this 30-year update. There are solutions, but they will require an informed body politic, thoughtful leadership, and an honest assessment of public policy from all of us.
17 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on March 29, 2022
The book tells the truth. Humanity will suffer the collapse of civilization and the horrible deaths of billions because of their collective inability to understand that the earth and the resources the earth can provide to humanity are finite and limited It is absolutely essential for every intelligent person on the planet to not only read the book but to fully understand. It is easy to read and understand and all of the facts set forth in the book are supported.
8 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on October 21, 2008
Main points are these:
- People normally use only cause-effect associations (input - output models).

- They need to understand that the effect can "send a message" to the input, and this can only be viewed using dynamic models.

- They do not think that all exponential process are terminated by
the activation of strong negative limiting feedback forces.

- The first edition was wrong and this edition will be wrong concerning the timing of the events because:
1) no one knows who will play the game (China phenomenon for example would be thought as an "impossible" event viewed from 1972 perspective)
Notice however that venerated Yellow River has received a very large pollution charge in these "growth" years.

2) It is very difficult (impossible) to set accurate parameters for the model.

But the MAIN point is:
The conclusions (although the timing is not precise) are true, or have a high probability of occur, so that, as the credit growth busted, the pollution growth and the end of natural resources can spoil the world.

In this case, we will not be able to borrow pure water, pure air, and food etc... from GOD or from a Natural Resources Central Bank.

------------------------------------------

PS: So that the only way to not spoil the world is to control several key
parameters (population growth, natural resources usage, pollution etc...) and some are interdependent.
13 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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MARCO ANTONIO BALEEIRO ALVES
5.0 out of 5 stars Excelente!
Reviewed in Brazil on March 20, 2023
Excelente livro, mas só tem que tomar cuidado com a capa. É linda, mas estraga fácil. O plástico que recobre o desenho é sensível demais.
Martin
5.0 out of 5 stars essential reading for anyone concerned about the future of humanity.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 3, 2024
Very clear and well researched. The forward relates it to the world of 2020+. The limits to growth have been overshot.
Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book, Bad print
Reviewed in India on June 29, 2022
The book is iconic and extremely relevant..however the print is substandard
GB
5.0 out of 5 stars Dangerous ride to the limits
Reviewed in Italy on February 11, 2019
I read “Limit to Growth” in 1972 and was impressed. A lot of people denied it. I think it was the first honest attempt to sensibilize Human Beings about risks in a blind race to destroy natural reserves. There is a lot to do and perhaps we are just in time to do it. This 30YRS upgrade book is more detailed and more up to date and, of course, more impressive. Definitely to read.
One person found this helpful
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Philippe
5.0 out of 5 stars Incontournable
Reviewed in France on November 4, 2018
Les auteurs utilisent des outils mathématiques pour modéliser sans parti pris les questions d'environnement et de resources. Le livre est très accessible, mais il intéressera d'autant plus ceux qui ont un petit bagage mathématique.