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The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing: Finding Value, Generating Absolute Returns, and Controlling Risk in Turbulent Markets Hardcover – May 8, 2012
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From the Inside Flap
To make money in this troubled economy you need to understand where the markets are headed, not where they've been. Clinging to outdated strategies and played out market trends are sure ways to miss out on new investments. In The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing, acclaimed investment expert John Mauldin teaches you how to read the direction of the markets to make decisions that capitalize on today's investment opportunities.
A practical road map to what's in store for the markets to help you stay ahead of the curve, the book debunks many of the myths that have come to govern investment logic, particularly the buy-and-hold, relative return vehicles that Wall Street peddles to unsuspecting investors. Giving you a clear view of the trends shaping the markets right now, which are likely to provide investment options for the decade ahead, The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing teaches the value of careful research before you put your money to work.
Whether the market is on its way up or down, there are always excellent opportunities to invest profitably. You just need to know where they are. Looking at how the markets have behaved in the past to make an educated prediction about where they're going, The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing explains how to make investment decisions that make sense today, whether you're trading stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, or anything else.
Making the most of the markets is like hitting a moving targetdifficult, but not impossibleand with The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing in hand, you have everything you need to improve your eye for investing and make stable and secure trading decisions that can turn a profit in even the most turbulent of times.
From the Back Cover
Praise For THE LITTLE BOOK OF BULL'S EYE INVESTING
"John Mauldin understands the complexities of investing in today's tumultuous global environment. This is an invaluable guide for identifying the certainties in an increasingly uncertain market climate, and the profitable opportunities that will emerge."David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist,Gluskin Sheff + Associates
"Successful investing requires making sense of the big picture and helping investors gain perspective. The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing is a must-read. Once again, John Mauldin has nailed it!"Jon Sundt, President and CEO, Altegris Investments, Inc.
"Be prepared to discover what readers of John Mauldin's online newsletter already knowhis practical and sensible investment advice, drawn from a deep knowledge of markets and history. In this book, John lays outin his appealing stylenot only the essence of bull's eye investing, but also how not to fail as an investor."A. Gary Shilling, President, A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
"No one does a better job of synthesizing wide ranging sources of market wisdom than John Mauldin. His unique perspective often reveals what professionals miss and what Mom and Pop investors have yet to learn."Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director of Equity Research,Fusion IQ
Top Customer Reviews
The beginning of the the book is consumed with 12-20 year market cycles. There are times when investing in risky assets where you face headwinds and tailwinds. The headwinds and tailwinds are driven by valuation, often expressed through Q-ratio, CAPE, or Michael Alexander's Price-to-Resources ratio, out of which the book makes a lot (link here for an example). It's a Price-to-Adjusted Book value ratio as I see it.
Regardless of the method, if you buy in at high valuations, the wind is in your face, and you are not likely to earn much. The opposite is true for low valuations, but at the valuation trough, everyone is disgusted, and few are willing to buy.
So it takes a strong stomach and mind to follow a method like this. Strong stomach, because when it is time to buy one will fear that the money will be lost. Strong mind, because near valuation peaks people will tell you that you are nuts to leave the party -- it's just getting started.
But what if a decent sized portion of institutional money did this? The cycles would go away, or be muted. That's not likely to happen in my opinion: some men may change, but you can't change mankind. Emotions of fear and greed dominate over clear thinking.Read more ›
When Mauldin published the original Bull's Eye Investing in 2003, he made his case that U.S. stocks were in the early stages of a secular bear market. Today, nearly a decade later, he has been proven largely correct. The S&P 500 is still below its 2007 all-time high and, far more significantly, still below the previous high set after the secular bull market of 1982 - 2000. Adjusted for inflation, investors that held throughout this period would be sitting on some stinging losses.
The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing, published in 2012, is a shorter, more digestible update to Mauldin's original magnum opus. And Mauldin is adamant that, despite his belief that the secular bear still has a few years left in it, the book is not about "doom and gloom," and "the world as we know it is not coming to an end." There is money to be made; it just so happens that you might have to look in unfamiliar places to find it.
Let's start with a few definitions. A secular bear market is a long-term period in which stock prices are flat or falling. In practice, this has been anywhere from 8 to 20 years, with approximately 17 years being the average of the past century.
Investing in a secular bear is very different than investing in a secular bull. As Mauldin writes,
In secular bull markets, an investor should search for assets that offer relative returns--stocks and funds that will perform better than the market averages. If you beat the market, you're doing well...
In a secular bear market, however, that strategy is a prescription for disaster.Read more ›
There are tons of statistics and charts but the data is explained in plain english. Also, the author summarizes the main points at the end of each chapter. I though this was helpful in reinforcing what I just read, like a school textbook.
The context focuses on major economic trends throughout history and what is likely to happen over the next decade or two. Some of the cycles that have occurred (and repeated) in the past are pretty amazing. Who knows if they'll repeat again but at least you'll have an idea of what might be coming down the pike.
So, this book is not for your typical day trader but I think it is a great read for almost anyone interested in economic cycles and future trends.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
This venerable pundit offers good insights and classic tales. A good choice for investors and economics majors.Published 23 months ago by Carol Kay
Read this book a couple of years ago but enjoyed it. Mauldin makes some good points and I like the fact that he is a thinking man and makes decisions based on facts and not on... Read morePublished on August 12, 2014 by Satyrman63
I have read meany of the "Little Book" series. This one fails to provide any real useful information. Skip this one and read Joel Grenblatts book, or John Bogels. Read morePublished on July 24, 2014 by Online
There are traditional books on investing. This slim volume is different. It relies on John Mauldin;s extensive past experiences to point out that the old methods are outdated by... Read morePublished on June 10, 2014 by Jon W. Schonblom
John Mauldin has written a very good defense of value investing by doing good due diligence and intelligent review. The book is valuable to all investors.Published on May 22, 2014 by Ernest G. Mccray
Good advice, but probably won't make any money as a result of reading it. It might avoid making some investments that are better to avoid.Published on March 27, 2014 by Dennis Strange
Good reading about the current economic situation and steps taken by the central bankers around the world. However, not totally convinced on the anticipated outcome.Published on February 11, 2014 by Bluelion
I bought it because others referred me to this book, and I have heard alot about the author, all good.Published on January 5, 2014 by ladyliza
Bottom lines: We are in a secular bear market. It began in 2000. There will probably be 2 more recessions before it ends. Read morePublished on July 11, 2013 by John G. Barbour