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The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate (Princeton Science Library) Paperback – March 22, 2016
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Why a warmer climate may be humanity’s longest-lasting legacy
The human impact on Earth's climate is often treated as a hundred-year issue lasting as far into the future as 2100, the year in which most climate projections cease. In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world’s leading climatologists, reveals the hard truth that these changes in climate will be "locked in," essentially forever.
If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long Thaw, David Archer predicts that if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. A human-driven, planet-wide thaw has already begun, and will continue to impact Earth’s climate and sea level for hundreds of thousands of years. The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland may take more than a century to melt, and the overall change in sea level will be one hundred times what is forecast for 2100. By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long-term climate forecast.
Archer shows how just a few centuries of fossil-fuel use will cause not only a climate storm that will last a few hundred years, but dramatic climate changes that will last thousands. Carbon dioxide emitted today will be a problem for millennia. For the first time, humans have become major players in shaping the long-term climate. In fact, a planetwide thaw driven by humans has already begun. But despite the seriousness of the situation, Archer argues that it is still not too late to avert dangerous climate change--if humans can find a way to cooperate as never before.
Revealing why carbon dioxide may be an even worse gamble in the long run than in the short, this compelling and critically important book brings the best long-term climate science to a general audience for the first time.
With a new preface that discusses recent advances in climate science, and the impact on global warming and climate change, The Long Thaw shows that it is still not too late to avert dangerous climate change―if we can find a way to cooperate as never before.
- Print length200 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPrinceton University Press
- Publication dateMarch 22, 2016
- Dimensions5.5 x 0.6 x 8.4 inches
- ISBN-100691169063
- ISBN-13978-0691169064
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"One of The Australian's Best Books of 2009"
"Selected to appear on ClimateUnited's Booklist of Top Books on Climate Change"
"Worried about warming but confused about carbon? Try [The Long Thaw], which tells you nearly everything you need to know with down-to-earth clarity and brevity."---Evan Hadingham, PBS's NOVA blog
"Archer . . . presents the dire and long-lasting consequences of our fossil-fuel dependency but concludes that it's not too late for us to go a different, better way."---Avital Binshtock, Sierra Club Blog
"Archer has perfectly pitched answers to the most basic questions about global warming while providing a sound basis for understanding the complex issues frequently misrepresented by global warming skeptics. With a breezy, conversational style, he breaks complex concepts into everyday analogies. Divided into three parts--the Present, the Past and the Future--Archer provides a complete picture of climate change now, in the past, and what we can expect in years and centuries to come. His models, though conservative, imply that humans won't survive the environmental consequences of severe warming over the next thousand years. While Archer is neither grim nor pessimistic, he is forthright about what's at stake, and what must do to avert catastrophe." ― Publishers Weekly
"It is comprehensive, well written and includes numerous useful vignettes from climate history. Archer leads the reader to a simple yet accurate picture of climate changes, ranging from geological time scales to current warming, ice ages and prospects for the future."---Susan Solomon, Nature
"The Long Thaw is written for anyone who wishes to know what cutting-edge science tells us about the modern issue of global warming and its effects on the pathways of atmospheric chemistry, as well as global and regional temperatures, rainfall, sea level, Arctic sea-ice coverage, melting of the continental ice sheets, cyclonic storm frequency and intensity and ocean acidification. This book will also appeal to scientists who want a clear and unbiased picture of the global-warming problem and how it may progress in the future. It encapsulates Archer's own efforts in the field of climate research, which I found invaluable."---Fred T. Mackenzie, Nature Geoscience
"The power of Archer's book is to show that such [climate] changes, which we can bring about through just a few centuries of partying on carbon, can only be matched by the earth itself over vastly longer periods. . . . It's the kind of perspective we need in order to realize how insane we're being."---Chris Mooney, American Prospect
"Global climate change is the subject of thousands of books; this short volume is distinctive in multiple ways. Archer is a geophysicist (and a look-alike--except for stubble--for late British actor David Niven), whose scientific background lets him place climate change in the context of its variations in geological history. He points out that the Earth's orbital cycles had poised it to enter a new ice age when human influences began to override natural forces."---F.T. Manheim, Choice
"If you think global warming is going to stop in its tracks as soon as our fossil fuel fix runs its course, think again. Intensifying hurricanes, mega-droughts, and the mass extinction of species are just the beginning, says leading climatologist David Archer, renowned in part for his work with the respected blog RealClimate. Though we still have time to avert the worst of climate change, he says, the ramifications of our carbon spewing (think a ten-foot rise in ocean levels) will last well beyond even our grandchildren's years. A good storyteller, Archer walks us through the history of climate change, starting in the 1800s, when the term 'greenhouse effect' first made its way into scientific parlance. Tempering techie speak with accessible analogies, Archer manages in the James Hansen-approved volume to speak to scientists and laymen alike." ― Plenty
"Notice to climate change deniers: I don't want to hear another word about the Little Ice Age, cosmic rays of the Palaeocene Eocene thermal maximum event 55 million years ago until you've read David Archer's little book. He's a geophysical scientist at the University of Chicago and he knows his stuff. He sets out the latest scientific understanding of climate change through geological time, human time, and beyond. It's the clearest introduction I've seen yet to the complexity of the planet's climate system and how a certain bipedal species may know it gally wonk."---Leigh Dayton, The Australian
"The great appeal of this short book lies in Archer's ability to find easily comprehensible analogies and his no-nonsense prose. . . . This is a true rarity. A book about climate change written by an expert everyone can understand." ― Sydney Morning Herald
"David Archer has written a highly engaging and accessible review of the scientific bases for anthropogenic global warming and the dilemmas of what, as a global community, we should do next. The text is written for a general audience, reflecting the aims of the Science Essentials series of which it is a part, namely, to bring the findings of cutting-edge scientific research to the public."---Tim Denham, Journal of Archaeological Science
"If you have time in your busy schedule to read only one book on climate change and climate science basics, this would be a good choice. Archer, an oceanographer and University of Chicago geosciences professor, has written a conversational, engaging, and short (remember, you are busy) book that covers the last 500 million years or so of the Earth's climate." ― Disaster Prevention and Management
"David Archer's The Long Thaw . . . tells you nearly everything you need to know with down-to-earth clarity and brevity. . . . [R]eading The Long Thaw is sobering and enlightening rather than depressing. It's packed with informative, accessible background on past climate cycles and why they are relevant to assessing today's warming."---Evan Hadingham, Inside NOVA
"[T]he ideas expounded in the book are of great importance to the debate on climate change and deserve to be more widely appreciated. Let us hope that Archer's message becomes widely understood and acted upon before we find that we have already committed ourselves to damaging (and potentially irreversible) climate change."---John King, Journal of Polar Record
"A beautifully written primer on why climate change matters hugely for our future--on all time scales." ― New Scientist
"If you have time in your busy schedule to read only one book on climate change and climate science basics, this would be a good choice. Archer, an oceanographer and University of Chicago geosciences professor, has written a conversational, engaging, and short (remember, you're busy) book." ― Natural Hazards Observer
Review
"This is the best book about carbon dioxide and climate change that I have read. David Archer knows what he is talking about."―James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
"Books on climate change tend to focus on what is expected to happen this century, which will certainly be large, but they often neglect the even larger changes expected to take place over many centuries. The Long Thaw looks at climate effects beyond the twenty-first century, and its focus on the long-term carbon cycle, rather than just climate change, is unique."―Jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
"A great book. What sets it apart is that it expands the discussion of the impacts of global warming beyond the next century and convincingly describes the effects that are projected for the next few thousand years. What also sets it apart is how deeply it takes general readers into the scientific issues of global warming by using straightforward explanations of often complex ideas."―Peter J. Fawcett, University of New Mexico
From the Back Cover
"In this short book, David Archer gives us the latest on climate change research, and skillfully tells the climate story that he helped to discover: generations beyond our grandchildren's grandchildren will inherit atmospheric changes and an altered climate as a result of our current decisions about fossil-fuel burning. Not only are massive climate changes coming if we humans continue on our current path, but many of these changes will last for millennia. To make predictions about the future, we rely on research into the deep past, and Archer is at the forefront of this field: paleoclimatology. This is the book for anyone who wishes to really understand what cutting-edge science tells us about the effects we are having, and will have, on our future climate."--Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State University
"This is the best book about carbon dioxide and climate change that I have read. David Archer knows what he is talking about."--James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
"Books on climate change tend to focus on what is expected to happen this century, which will certainly be large, but they often neglect the even larger changes expected to take place over many centuries. The Long Thaw looks at climate effects beyond the twenty-first century, and its focus on the long-term carbon cycle, rather than just climate change, is unique."--Jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
"A great book. What sets it apart is that it expands the discussion of the impacts of global warming beyond the next century and convincingly describes the effects that are projected for the next few thousand years. What also sets it apart is how deeply it takes general readers into the scientific issues of global warming by using straightforward explanations of often complex ideas."--Peter J. Fawcett, University of New Mexico
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Princeton University Press; Revised edition (March 22, 2016)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 200 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0691169063
- ISBN-13 : 978-0691169064
- Item Weight : 7.4 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.5 x 0.6 x 8.4 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #91,174 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #18 in Rivers in Earth Science
- #35 in Weather (Books)
- #71 in Climatology
- Customer Reviews:
About the author

David Archer is a computational ocean chemist, and has been a Professor at the Department of The Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago since 1993. He has published research on the carbon cycle of the ocean and the sea floor. He has worked on the history of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the fate of fossil fuel CO2 over geologic time scales in the future, and the impact of CO2 on future ice age cycles, ocean methane hydrate decomposition, and coral reefs.
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Customers find the book's content well-reasoned, informative, and consistent with the conclusions. They also describe the writing quality as very well written from an Oceanographer's perspective.
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Customers find the book's content well-reasoned, informative, and fascinating. They also say the arguments are convincing and the evidence is consistent with the conclusions.
"...Lots and lots of science here, but none too daunting, that go into detail on how natural warming and cooling occur, with descriptions of sunspot..." Read more
"...books, I think this one is definitely worth a look for its interesting thesis regarding the ice age that was due to come, that we will probably..." Read more
"...issues, he seems to be on top of the latest research and makes excellent observations...." Read more
"Archer's book seems scientifically impeccable but also targeted at those who don't know much about the basic science of climate...." Read more
Customers find the writing quality of the book very well written.
"...A very well-written book, heavy on science and facts (as currently understood), and almost devoid of politics and alternate energy discussions." Read more
"...As with so many others it reviews the evidence, but quite succintly, with a minimum of unnecessary storylines...." Read more
"...The past portion of the book is also well done by giving a historical picture of the how the Earth goes through various cooling and warming cycles...." Read more
"This concise (180-page), clearly-written book is an excellent first book on climate science for the general audience, generally not requiring..." Read more
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The Long Thaw - but not in Geological Time
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Top reviews from the United States
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Lots and lots of science here, but none too daunting, that go into detail on how natural warming and cooling occur, with descriptions of sunspot activities, cyclical orbital changes, ocean mixing behavior, volcanic activity, and yes, carbon dioxide levels. Because the author takes such a long view in the past (and future), he avoids most of the current politicization of global warming discussion. He clearly states that cyclical warming is natural and expected, but then makes a good case that our current warming is likely to be almost completely human-made, as we should be entering a new ice age.
The Long Thaw is quite original in its discussion on important aspects of climate change. It does not re-hash IPCC reports, or discuss alternate energy sources. It doesn't even really scare the reader into thinking climate change is bad - it just points out certain facts, such as an inevitable rise in sea level if carbon dioxide emissions continue along a business-as-usual path.
A few things I learned from the book:
Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, on average, a few hundred years, but some remains for thousands of years.
Very small changes in solar energy input or carbon dioxide levels can lead to very great changes in climate.
Carbon dioxide does not always cause global warming initially, but always makes it worse due to positive feedback cycles. (The warmer it gets, more CO2 is produced, and the more CO2 that is in the air, the warmer it gets.)
We can probably burn all the existing oil and natural gas without causing dangerous warming of the planet, but coal is ten times more abundant than oil and natural gas combined, and if we burn all the coal, the planet will most likely become extremely hot, with sea level rises of 30 feet and displacement of ten percent of the world's population. Sea level rise could be as great as 150 feet, flooding large parts of where people live.
Global warming naturally occurs throughout geological history. The difference this time is that warming appears to be occurring largely due to human burning of fossil fuels, and the change is more rapid than natural. Slow climate change can be adapted to, but it is not known if human societies have the ability to adapt to rapid climate change.
The cost to avoid dangerous climate interference is very small if we act now. Because carbon dioxide emission costs are currently not paid for (they are externalized to everyone, not just the producer), there is no incentive to reduce emissions.
A very well-written book, heavy on science and facts (as currently understood), and almost devoid of politics and alternate energy discussions.
Another very important issue he goes over is the huge discrepancy between the historical record in sea level rises for a given temperature (hundreds of metres for a few degrees) versus the IPCC forecast (a few metres), which is certainly cause for alarm. He correctly points out that burning all oil and gas will produce a vastly different outcome than burning all fossil fuels, including coal.
So among all other climate change books, I think this one is definitely worth a look for its interesting thesis regarding the ice age that was due to come, that we will probably override.
Archer divides the book into 3 categories, present, past and future. The present conversation gives you a snapshot at the current situation. Archer again keeps his arguments on point and is able to give information that is relevant and most sought after in the climate change argument. The past portion of the book is also well done by giving a historical picture of the how the Earth goes through various cooling and warming cycles. Most of this portion gives the reader an understanding as to why climate change is such a difficult topic and how it is not a yes or no question. The future portion of the book is also very telling in that there are so many different possibilities of what could happen. But from Archer’s perspective the ocean will be able to dictate how climate will change either warming or cooling.
Overall I thought this was a well-written book. Because of the nature of climate change, it is already close to being obsolete but it is interesting to see how the climate change debate has changed in a few short years. I would have liked to see more of the science behind the findings because that can help the reader fully understand the argument. There were a few other errors made that have been pointed out by other reviewers, but overall a well-written book that would be a great addition to any climate change library.
Top reviews from other countries
Written clearly and very matter of fact.
A good read, very thought provoking and leaves you begging the question: Why haven't I heard it explained like this before?
First impressions of the book are mixed. Positives: the author is an oceanographer, so he ought to know what he's talking about; the tone is reasoned and unhysterical about the impact of climate change to date (not a lot, in his view) and for the next fifty to a hundred years ('generally expected to be more harmful than good', which is hardly Armageddon); and the author's insistence on looking beyond the next hundred years is worth our attention.
But for a book aiming to bring 'the best long-term climate science', and 'for the first time', there is a long way to go. The index is poor (no mention of individual authors); there are no textual references; the bibliography is limited, selective (no sign that the author has looked at any alternative explanations of the climate data), and quite dated; and many of the graphs are unattributed (e.g. Figure 4, p.33) and/or, at least to this reviewer, completely incomprehensible (e.g. Figure 20, p.152). The tone swings uneasily between the simple and the complex; this member of a 'general audience' sank without trace in Chapter 9. And worst of all, some lazy factual errors have crept in unchecked from other AGW literature: the myth that Tuvalu in the Pacific is sinking beneath a rising sea level (pp.37 and 49 - it isn't); the assumption that 'polar bears without sea ice face near-certain extinction' (p.36 - they have survived previous warm periods without sea ice); and a consistent failure to recognise the seesaw nature of the world climate so that as the Arctic warms, the Antarctic cools. (This is dismissed with engaging frankness on p.23: 'It's a bit of a mystery how cold it's been in Antarctica: it may have something to do with the ozone hole'.) All this information (and more) is widely available in numerous works published over the last ten years both for a specialised and a general readership; it is odd that the author, a professor of oceanography, does not seem to have read them.
Indeed there is much the author admits he does not understand, notably the climatic impact of ocean currents ('fluid flow is tricky to simulate or understand', p.26) and of clouds ('[Predicting what clouds would look like?] Talk about tedious calculations: this would be too much even for the fastest computer', p.27). This engagingly agnostic view of climate science would be fine if he applied it consistently - but he is very sure that despite all these mysterious and unpredictable factors, and indeed despite the unexplained climate 'standstill' since 1998 ([...] not mentioned in the book), atmospheric variations in CO2 will trump all other factors and warm the earth.
So what of the main thrust of the book - the view that in the long run things are serious? Professor Archer argues that a two degree short term increase in temperature - well within the latest IPCC predictions - will settle down to a long-term increase of one degree 'and remain so for thousands of years', leading to a sea level four or five metres higher. This is a serious point. Larger temperature rises will bring larger sea level rises. And of course there will be even greater effects if carbon cycle feedback happens, leading to the release of the great ocean-floor deposits of methane hydrate: 'comparable to the destructive potential from nuclear winter or asteroid impact' (p.132). On the other hand, as he engagingly points out a few pages later, the best guess about the current climate is that there will be a new Ice Age within the next thousand years and that AG could prevent it: 'if mankind burns [the forecast amount of carbon fuels] in the coming century, it looks as though climate will avoid glaciation ... until the year 130,000'. So it's not all bad news!
So on balance, what does this book add to the debate? Well, in the opinion of this reviewer, not a lot. Writing for the general reader is hard and requires an author both to simplify, and also to expand, as appropriate - neither talking down to their reader, nor blinding them with science. This takes time, and this book does not show evidence of that investment of time. It argues that just mitigating carbon outputs so that we reach 2100 in one piece, doesn't mean that we're out of the wood. This may be worth saying. But to the lay reader looking for other new perspectives in the rich and varied world of climate science, this isn't the place to find them.



