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Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer Hardcover – September 18, 1985

4.3 out of 5 stars 3 customer reviews

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 688 pages
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc; 2nd edition (September 18, 1985)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0471823600
  • ISBN-13: 978-0471823605
  • Product Dimensions: 1.1 x 1.4 x 2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 2.2 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #5,599,528 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

By John C. Dunbar on June 18, 2001
Format: Hardcover
As far as I can tell, there are just two editions. I have both. The 2nd edition was released in 1985. Both editions are heavily underlined and dog-eared from repeated readings.
This MIT professor has done a masterful job at describing the process of making predictions and forecasting. The book is extremely easy to read and is well footnoted. This is obviously a labor of love for this expert on forecasting.
You'll laugh at some of his stories of predictions gone astray or methodologies foolishly executed. There's not much math to this book (680 pages) but there is a lot of logic and thinking going on.
This book covers all the major forms of forecasting and discusses the pro's and con's of each method. It provides many, many examples of forecasts. He then analyzes them to back up his major points.
Then goes on to recommend why you should combine forecast methodologies to increase your accuracy. If you're an economist making forecasts on the economy, or if your a stock analyst making forecasts for Earnings, you'll enjoy this book. The book is aimed at researchers preparing forecasts for economics and social sciences. My interest was in the stock market and commoditiy markets. And I feel I was richly rewarded with this book.
This book gives you the framework to work within. Other books give the math background for each of the techniques.
The author has been very active in writing articles for journals and has helped start a journal for the forecasting field.
Must have book, if you make any kind of forecasts - including just forecasting your business's sales. I can't recommend it highly enough.
John Dunbar
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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
The book is not only relevant to the the issues targeted, but it is a wonderful book as such. I wish all scientific books would be written in this way. I met the book the first time in 1981. Always kept it in mind. When I looked for it recently, couldn't find it anymore and bought it again second hand. 2014 03 08.
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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Long range forecasting is something of a crap shoot under any circumstances. Often the Black Swan Effect disrupts meven the most carefully structured forecasts.
Helpful for considering a range of possible outcomes.
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