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Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics) Paperback – October 4, 2005
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Charles P. Kindleberger
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There is a newer edition of this item:
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Print length355 pages
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LanguageEnglish
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PublisherWiley
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Publication dateOctober 4, 2005
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Dimensions5.45 x 0.98 x 8.44 inches
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ISBN-100471467146
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ISBN-13978-0471467144
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Editorial Reviews
From the Back Cover
Finance
"Underneath the hilarious anecdotes, the elegant epigrams, and the graceful turns of phrase, Kindleberger is deadly serious. The manner in which human beings earn their livings is no laughing matter to him, especially when they attempt to do so at the expense of one another. As he so effectively demonstrates, manias, panics, and crashes are the consequence of an economic environment that cultivates cupidity, chicanery, and rapaciousness rather than a devout belief in the Golden Rule."
from the Foreword to the Fourth Edition by Peter L. Bernstein,
author of Against the Gods and The Power of Gold
Praise for previous editions of Manias, Panics, and Crashes
"Classic...Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a durable guide to meditation: wise, witty, and practical. It is a template against which to measure the latest financial crisiswhatever and whenever that happens to be."
David Warsh, The Boston Globe
"Definitive."
Floyd Norris, The New York Times
"[Manias, Panics, and Crashes] is a scholarly account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries."
Richard Lambert, Financial Times
"What long has been the best history of financial pathologies is now even better. The reader who absorbs Kindleberger's lessons will be prepared to foresee and navigate the financial crises that surely lie ahead. Like a true classic, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is both timely and timeless."
Richard Sylla, Kaufman Professor of Financial History
Stern School of Business, New York University
About the Author
Charles P. Kindleberger was the Ford Professor of Economics at MIT for thirty-three years. He is a financial historian and prolific writer who has published over thirty books. Manias, Panics, and Crashes is his most popular book.
ROBERT ALIBER is a Professor of International Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, where he has been a faculty member since 1965.
Product details
- Publisher : Wiley; 5th edition (October 4, 2005)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 355 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0471467146
- ISBN-13 : 978-0471467144
- Item Weight : 15.2 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.45 x 0.98 x 8.44 inches
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Best Sellers Rank:
#287,917 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #145 in Microeconomics (Books)
- #822 in Economic History (Books)
- #958 in Accounting (Books)
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Top reviews from the United States
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Interestingly, something somewhere is always crashing. And I have also used Kindleberger to size up what are obvious manias (easy one: there are now more construction cranes in Toronto than any other city in North America). Places where I have bought after crashes are Greek shipping companies in January 2013 (42% gain in 12 months even including a stock that went from $70/share to $0.11/share) and Indian small caps in August of 2013 (up ~30% gain in 5 months), the US housing market in 2012, and a small bank whose shares went from $300, to $1, to $11 (counting reverse splits).
I have proven that you can still lose money even buying after a big fall (US Treasurys)--so I am not touting Kindleberger as a panacea. it is far from clear how to get the timing right during or after a crash. But this book did a great job illuminating the crazy ways people can cause a good or a stock to part from reality both on its way up and on its way down. Using it, I succeed more often than I fail. And I succeed more often than if I had not read it.
I would place this book on the short list, with Taleb's, Lefevre's, and Malkiel's work if you invest for yourself.
I would concur that this is a book that should be referred to every few years. For example, speculative investing & expansion of credit gave way to the Housing Bubble; these topics are covered extensively in the book (albeit written before the pop of the Housing Bubble). It will be interesting to come back to this book as the next couple of economic cycles play out given our nations leverage levels and the implications of expansionary monetary policy (Kindleberger highlighted that Debt/GDP levels should be healthily around <60-70%).
The new chapter 13 by Robert Aliber was especially hard for me to read, the sentence structure used being quite complex.
Still, the general message comes across clearly enough, when problems arise it is usually a lack of liquidity (which can have a variety of causes). The solution is a lender of last resort, a solution that creates its own problems, moral hazard.
Kindleberger approaches the analysis as a classical economist, as if economics were a hard science like Newtonian physics. Imagine for a moment if Newton and the other astrophysicists had to analyze a universe where distance, time and the strength of the various forces changed from instant to instant like prices do. I believe it would be mission impossible. Over the past few decades a new way of looking at economics has been tried, as a Complex Science, not as a physical science. The economy is created by the interaction of agents: buyers, sellers, producers and consumers. Being the creation of biological entities, it seems to make sense to look at it from a biologist's point of view. Stuart Kauffman has done some work in that direction. I think it is the more fruitful route to understanding economics.
Top reviews from other countries
Am Beginn steht immer ein Aufschwung, der irgendwann zu einer Manie wird. Die Marktteilnehmer sind dann euphorisch; immer mehr Leute wollen mitmachen und verschulden sich dafür immer weiter. Die konkreten Auslöser der Manie sind unterschiedlich (früher u. a. Tulpenzwiebeln, heute meist Blasen am Aktien- oder Immobilienmarkt).
Zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt zeigt sich, dass die Euphorie grundlos war; die Menschen geraten in Panik und versuchen, ihre Anlagen zu verkaufen. Durch diese Panikverkäufe sinken die Preise, sodass es durch mangelnde Nachfrage zu einer Rezession kommen kann.
Nach Minsky gibt es drei Phasen der Finanzierung: (1) das Unternehmen kann Tilgung und Zinsen zahlen; (2) das Unternehmen kann nur die Zinsen zahlen; (3) das Unternehmen kann aus eigenen Mitteln nicht einmal die Zinsen zahlen. Während eines konjunkturellen Aufschwungs gelangen durch die allgemeine Euphorie immer mehr Unternehmen in die späteren Phasen. Einige Unternehmen realisieren erst in der Krise, dass sie in der nicht tragbaren Phase (3) sind, weil die Finanzierung nun schwieriger ist.
Die Voraussetzung der Manien ist aber immer in einer zu lockeren Geldpolitik der Zentralbanken bzw. einer zu großzügigen Kreditvergabe durch die Geschäftsbanken zu sehen.
Das Buch untermauert diese Thesen auf zwei verschiedenen Ebenen:
(b) Anekdoten zeigen, wie sich frühere Krisen abgespielt haben. Was dachten Investoren, einfache Leute, Banker und Regierungen?
(b) Ursachen und Bekämpfung von Krisen werden schon lange diskutiert (z. B. Banking School gegen Currency School im viktorianischen England). Soll man nichts tun, wie die Österreichische Schule fordert? Oder sollte man etwas tun? Aber falls ja, wer? Die Zentralbank? Der Staat? Der Internationale Währungsfonds?
Man ist sich heute so gut wie einig, dass Finanzkrisen durch die Zentralbanken bekämpft werden sollen. Diese müssen den klammen Banken Geld leihen. Aber sollte dies national oder international geschehen? Wem soll man zu welchen Zinsen Geld leihen? Im viktorianischen England schlug Bagehot die Regel vor, dass die Zentralbank jede beliebige Summe verleihen sollte, aber nur an namhafte Institutionen für gute Sicherheiten und gegen hohe Strafzinsen. Aber gegen diese Regel wurde oft verstoßen. Außerdem schafft eine Bankenrettung unangenehme Präzedenzfälle, die die Banken zu riskanterem Verhalten ermuntern könnten. Der Markt kann Finanzkrisen selbst bereinigen, aber nach Ansicht der Politiker braucht er dazu viel zu lange. Außerdem scheint Nichtstun teurer zu sein.
Der Anhang enthält eine Tabelle mit den wichtigsten Finanzkrisen.
***
Mir hat das Buch teilweise gut gefallen.
Die Darstellung der Weltwirtschaftskrise geht ausführlich auf die Situation in Deutschland und Österreich ein. In diesem Zusammenhang werden auch die Positionen des Nichtstuns (u. a. US-Finanzminister Mellon) und der staatlichen Hilfen (US-Präsidenten Hoover und Roosevelt) diskutiert.
Über das Buch verteilt gibt es Informationskästen, die sich u. a. mit Schneeballsystemen, Gold und Schrottanleihen beschäftigen.
Den Punktabzug gibt es, weil das Stichwortverzeichnis oft fehlerhaft ist (teils + / - 2 Seiten) und man Informationen zu bestimmten Finanzkrisen aus mehreren Kapiteln zusammensuchen muss.
Für eine Erweiterung des Minsky-Schemas kann man "Boombustology" lesen. Eine wissenschaftliche Übersicht über die Finanzkrisen bietet "This Time Is Different".
I am not an economist, I'm a general reader with a reasonable knowledge of economics and I found this book to be a tough read, partly due to my ignorance of the aforementioned financial crises and partly due to the fragmented, dry style of writing. Two chapters, one of which deals with a domestic lender of last resort and the other which deals with an international lender of last resort were quite interesting and saved the book, in my opinion. These chapters dealt with central banks and the IMF and I wish that Kindleberger had spent more time on these topics.
You may want to check this book out of your local library rather than buying it, it has some good insight into crowd behaviour (manias) and the role of government in containing and cleaning up after bubbles, however, while reading the book is a fairly good investment of time, buying it might not be as rational.
What other items do customers buy after viewing this item?
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Seventh EditionPaperback
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics)Paperback
Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial SpeculationPaperback
A Short History of Financial EuphoriaPaperback
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds: All Volumes - Complete and UnabridgedCharles MackayPaperback
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial FollyPaperback
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