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A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market Paperback – May 5, 2004

by John Allen Paulos (Author)
4.0 4.0 out of 5 stars 138 ratings
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Can a renowned mathematician successfully outwit the stock market? Not when his biggest investment is WorldCom. In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market , best-selling author John Allen Paulos employs his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes, and puzzles to address every thinking reader's curiosity about the market -- Is it efficient? Is it random? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? But Paulos's tour through the irrational exuberance of market mathematics doesn't end there. An unrequited (and financially disastrous) love affair with WorldCom leads Paulos to question some cherished ideas of personal finance. He explains why "data mining" is a self-fulfilling belief, why "momentum investing" is nothing more than herd behavior with a lot of mathematical jargon added, why the ever-popular Elliot Wave Theory cannot be correct, and why you should take Warren Buffet's "fundamental analysis" with a grain of salt. Like Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street , this clever and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets -- or knows someone who does.
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  1. Print length
    224 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publication date
    May 5, 2004
  4. Dimensions
    5 x 0.57 x 8 inches
  5. ISBN-10
    0465054811
  6. ISBN-13
    978-0465054817
  7. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"With accustomed humor and apt examples, Paulos tackles complex computations that are vaguely understood and frequently misapplied by Wall Street pros."

About the Author

John Allen Paulos is a professor of mathematics at Temple University. His books include the bestseller Innumeracy, A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, and Irreligion. He lives in Philadelphia.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Basic Books (May 5, 2004)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 224 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0465054811
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0465054817
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 8 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5 x 0.57 x 8 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.0 4.0 out of 5 stars 138 ratings

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John Allen Paulos

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4 out of 5 stars
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138 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

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5.0 out of 5 stars ridendo castigat mores
Reviewed in the United States on April 2, 2006
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Ridendo castigat mores.

This book is an eye-opener. It teaches you why you should cultivate modesty, humbleness and doubt. In a funny way it teaches you that everything should be taken cum grano salis: your knowledge, your experience and - most of all - your losses. The more you think you command the stock market, the more you think you are clever, the more you believe there are market gurus, the more you need this book. So, help yourself reading it.

Myself, I like to think I am immune to the multitude of scams investors are subject to. Not immune to loss - let me make it clear - but protected against the many traps, swindles and stings stock buyers are allured to. The reason is simple: I don't believe in easy money; I don't believe that I am more intelligent than the guy next to me; I don't believe that I can discover opportunities that my neighbor will not discover too. Or - perhaps more likely - has already discovered.

Those are the beliefs that support me when I - timidly, I must say - I transform some slices of my nest-egg into stock. These tenets have kept me afloat (so far).

Now, what happens when you read Paulos' 'A mathematician plays the stock market'? You start thinking 'am I really as impervious to the market vicissitudes as I think I am?' Or else: `if even a guy as smart as Paulos can fall in love with a piece of smoke and use his knowledge to justify his march towards self-destruction, am I really insusceptible?' Not likely.

In this book Paulos describes how he used his expertise against himself as his investment in the Worldcom stocks vaporized away. Day after day he kept finding justification not to get rid of his vanishing share of illusion.

When I finished reading the book I proposed myself the following argument:

It is a fact that the cheapest way to learn through experience is learning with someone else's experience, not with our own. That's what Paulos' book offers us: one more opportunity to learn what not to do. For $ 9.72 this is a really inexpensive way of - I wouldn't say of making money, but of not losing money.

After reading the book I am back to the spot I never left: buy the blue chips, forget the fads, crazes, fashion and FUD (*) and wait. In the stock market pride, hurry and greed are very likely to bring you disaster.

Molière's "ridendo castigat mores" (laughing castigate the mores) can be bended so as to be applied to this book: laughing learn what not to do with your money in the stock market. Especially, don't fall in love with your possessions.

FUD - acronym for 'Fear Uncertainty and Doubt' describes an old trick IBM invented to coax its customers into buying more of the same instead of buying from its competitors. Microsoft learned the lesson and is using it very well, thanks. In the stock market some gurus will entice you promising what the market can not deliver. At the same time they will try to convince you that not following their "method', `hints' or `recommendation' is to be fearful, uncertain and doubtful.
2 people found this helpful
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Tucker Andersen
4.0 out of 5 stars (4 1/2) A Mathematician Learns A Hard Lesson
Reviewed in the United States on December 30, 2003
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Alternate titles which I considered for this review of the book by the well known professor John Allen Paulos were:
"A Survey Course in Investment Theory", or
"Don't Confuse Intelligence with Insight", or
"How Smart People Do Dumb Things" or even,
"A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing'.
This book is really two separate literary endeavors, and while they are intertwined the first forms the platform for the second. In some ways, the book needs a bifurcated review, since it suffers from seemingly being directed at multiple audiences. The basis of the book is Paulos' cautionary story of his disastrous flirtation with the stock of Worldcom during the final phase of the "market bubble" in 2000 and 2001. The tale is remarkable only for the fact that it proves that knowledge and intelligence may be necessary conditions for avoiding investment disaster but they are far from sufficient (as logicians would say). A very smart college professor suffered exactly the same sort of disastrous losses in the stock market as many other traders and investors who forgot to balance risk and reward or let greed overwhelm fear in the constant tug-of-war between those opposing emotions. Paulos uses this tale, whose various aspects are interspersed throughout the book, as the basis of a very interesting discussion of many aspects of investment theory. There is also an excellent bibliography for those readers who are interested in pursuing some of the ideas which he discusses.
The author presents an excellent discussion of the intersection of mathematics and psychology (with some economic and business theory added) that is comprehensive enough to provide readers with a solid basis for understanding market fundamentals. He also discusses stock picking techniques and strategies, including the differences between fundamental and technical analysis. And his discussion of such topics as The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Chaos Theory and Expected Value are rigorous yet understandable. Unfortunately, the strong point of the book will undoubtedly be its major weakness for many readers. That is, it elucidates the theoretical underpinnings of the current state of academic research with regard to investment theory in a very understandable fashion, but except for the cautionary impact of his personal tale and some general investment guidelines which emanate from the material presented, there is little here of practical help to an individual investor. (As a student of the market and former managing partner of an investment firm, I found the book very enjoyable. It succeeded in filling in some gaps in my knowledge base and in some cases reminded me of lessons that I had forgotten.) So, if you are looking for an interesting in-depth introduction to some aspects of the mathematics and psychology of investment theory written in a very entertaining manner, this book is highly recommended and my four star rating is appropriate. (I should probably caution that my approach was to read a chapter at a time, since that gave me time to reflect upon the material rather than losing it's impact by immediately proceeding to a new concept.) However if you are looking for light reading or a practical investment handbook, then this book may disappoint you.
Tucker Andersen
11 people found this helpful
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Tim Josling
3.0 out of 5 stars Somewhat superficial and lacking detail
Reviewed in the United States on July 14, 2003
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I didn't like this book. Mostly it is a rehash of other books on bahavioural finance and so forth. If you are reasonably well read on finance you are likely to get very little from this one. On eht other hand if you know very little about the topic and are after some intellectual entertainment this book may be just what you are after.
The topics are all covered very briefly, and those which I had not come across before were difficult to follow due to the terseness of the coverage.
I also got the impression that he hadn't really covered the literature in his research e.g. in the material on power laws.
Personally I didn't like his sense of humour but your mileage may vary.
8 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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FERNANDO DIAZ LOPEZ
3.0 out of 5 stars No esta mal
Reviewed in Mexico on March 2, 2020
Verified Purchase
El libro trata principalmente sobre la irracionalidad que puede padecer una persona al invertir en bolsa, lo que puede generar mentalmente una gran pérdida de capital, no aceptarla y dejar la posición abierta o inclusive invertir más en ella aun cuando esta perdedora. En cuanto a las matemáticas, toca temas relevantes muy por encima con ejemplos a mi gusto claros.

Lo recomiendo para gente que piensa invertir en bolsa y no tiene muchas nociones matemáticas para esto.
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Pawan
5.0 out of 5 stars How to think about risk
Reviewed in Singapore on June 11, 2023
Verified Purchase
Very good read ! I wish they write a revised version.
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Toinks
5.0 out of 5 stars Stock and Maths lovers this one is for you
Reviewed in Canada on May 15, 2016
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I became fan from the first page itself. Fun to read haven't finished it completely but its a must read if you are interested in maths and finance.
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Ram P. Rustagi
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in India on September 22, 2015
Verified Purchase
Excellent book
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zigeunerweisen
4.0 out of 5 stars ビジネスマンに推奨
Reviewed in Japan on June 19, 2004
Verified Purchase
『天才数学者、株にハマる』のタイトルで訳書も出版されているが、ビジネスマンは原典で読むべきであろう。米テンプル大学数学教授（‘天才数学者’かどうかは定かでない）である著者は、90年代後半のネットバブルで株式投資に手を染め、ワールドコム株では大損をしたものの、株式市場の魅力と魔力にとりつかれたことが本書執筆の動機になったという。最先端のファイナンス数理が議論されているわけではないが、ファイナンス理論の規範性と限界に関する知見は随所に見られる。また示唆に富むエピソードがふんだんに盛り込まれている点も本書の魅力のひとつだ。本書の英語は平均的ビジネスマンには決して易しいとはいえないが、丹念に辞書を引きつつ読めば、ファイナンスの常識習得と英語力アップの一挙両得になるだろう。
4 people found this helpful
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