60 Billion dollars a year is a lot of money.
That simple point is at the heart of my thoughts on The Ministry for the Future, a new work by Kim Stanley Robinson, which I've just finished. Before the review, some caveats. I have read several of the author's novels - 2312, New York 2140, Red Moon. I like them all. This one is not bad. I bought it. You should buy it, too.
That said: The Ministry for the Future is different. It is a collection of vignettes and reports from a variety of sources and perspectives (even the sun gets to have its say) amounting to a loose, mostly unconnected set of storylines with lightweight characterizations and a plot with less of a traditional narrative flow. It throws out economic theories, technical solutions, and proposed political changes to address the challenge of climate change, but none in great detail. Another critic said the book still 'oddly works' despite these flaws and I have to agree. I think it works because it is a broad survey of a more hopeful future in which humanity actually addresses and turns the corner on climate change and all of these little reports collectively add up to a positive outcome. That's encouraging and that is what makes it fun to read. Most fiction on this topic is decidedly dystopian. This book is optimistic. Refreshing, to say the least.
It's still odd because a typical novel has more structure, more compelling characters (that you want to root for), and their journey and struggles, dangers and risks get more attention - like the author's other books. I came away wondering why one character was such a focus, their story not all that inspiring or sympathetic. Whereas another far more interesting character doing more risky and morally ambiguous activities is barely mentioned, their shadowy side only briefly mentioned. This second character is truly interesting, but we learn very little about them.
The organizational geek in me keeps coming back to that $60 billion a year. That's the notional budget of the Ministry for the Future, a global agency set up to represent the future humans that don't yet have a voice but will be impacted by climate change. It's a fascinating idea, but this notional ministry gets very little substantive treatment. It has an office in Zurich. An Irish woman as director whose chief skill seems to be glaring at people she doesn't agree with. There are a dozen directors (biblical metaphor?) who engage in periodic brainstorming sessions. There are brief vignettes of various initiatives overt and otherwise, but not so much substantive discussion of what, how, and why it works. And that's a shame because we probably need such an agency in the future. But what is described on these pages is what I would think of as a small nonprofit with a venture capital portfolio. It's not an agency with a $60B budget.
Consider what $60 billion will get you. The US Department of Energy has 14,000 employees, 95,000 contractors, 80+ labs around the country and does cutting edge research and development (okay, nuclear weapons, but also advanced solar, etc.). It also supports an academic research network - and it does all of that for about half of our notional Ministry for the Future's budget. I know a certain Fortune 500 IT technology company with over 500,000 employees around the world and the revenue supporting this vast organization is less than $45B and that includes a margin. The U.S. Air Force has a budget of roughly $160B a year (a lot more, of course, than the Ministry for the Future), but that gets you 5,000+ high tech aircraft, 320,000+ uniformed airmen(people?) and a civilian workforce of 320,000 - and of course the power of enough advanced high-tech weaponry to dominate any adversary anywhere in the world (for at least a few more years anyway). You get the point, I hope. You can do a lot with $60 billion a year.
A Ministry for the Future with a budget of $60 billion is going to be a busy place. Whoever is in charge is going to be spending a lot of their time overseeing the different divisions that spend this much money, visiting key projects, negotiating major agreements. They are not just going to be holding a monthly staff meeting to brainstorm ideas or hosting the occasional conference. All of the vignettes and initiatives mentioned are projects funded by the Ministry for the Future, but the dots aren't quite connected. Running such an agency is going to be a 24x7 job and that person is going to have to know the details, all of them. And with public funding, there will be a governing body that requires endless reporting and likely has different stakeholders with different agendas and conflicts, not to mention audits. You don't get that much public money for free. Maybe that's too much to envision and manage in a novel, but, again, we just might need a Ministry for the Future - in the near future. I wanted to see the idea developed more, much less the seen and unseen struggles of what it tries to accomplish and how it works with all of the other state and non-state actors that make-up the global community.
I'll close with my recommendation to buy the book. Despite some gaps and flaws and my very minor criticism, it 'oddly works', as they say. It adds up to a positive narrative of how we might possibly deal with global warming, which is all too rare these days and that, by itself, is worth the price of admission. Some of the projects to save the Earth are inspiring. If it gets you thinking that we can collectively solve this problem (global warming), then that by itself qualifies this book as a masterpiece, despite its flaws. So, go buy it. Start imaging a future that is more optimistic and less dystopian.
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Top reviews from the United States
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Reviewed in the United States on November 14, 2020
Verified Purchase
Reviewed in the United States on October 31, 2020
It's well worth reading, however I can't give it five stars because I find it to be lacking as a novel. The excitement takes place off camera, as it were, while the focus is on the institutional actors, including ministry staff and bankers, who meet mainly in Zurich and San Francisco. It would have been possible to use the same scenario as the basis for a much more dynamic story, it seems to me, given the range of radical actions that are essential to the outcome.
*** *** ***
The book begins with a massive heat wave in India that kills 20 million. This triggers a series of actions that accelerate global human society's response to catastrophic climate change. The central character is Mary Murphy, formerly foreign minister of Ireland, who is the head of a new U.N. "Subsidiary Body" to the Conference of the Parties to the Paris Climate Agreement, popularly known as the "Ministry for the Future" because its mandate is to speed implementation, charged with "defending all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves, by promoting their legal standing and physical protection."
While this U.N. agency, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, works through the institutions, primarily the central banks of the world, which KSR describes as the de facto world government, others engage in radical direct action. The "War for the Earth" begins on Crash Day (in the 2030s), when sixty passenger jets crash in a matter of hours, mainly private and business jets. Container ships begin to sink in large numbers. A manifesto is issued calling for an end to fossil-fuel burning transport. Following word that cattle have been infected, the beef industry is rapidly phased out. So the wave of uncoordinated actions includes carrots and sticks all aiming to reduce carbon emissions as rapidly as possible.
Stan Robinson puts forward a scathing critique of mainstream economics, and utilizes a variety of recent technological developments and policies in his scenario, including blockchain encryption of data, A.I., drone swarms, permaculture, Modern Monetary Theory (post-Keynesian economics), "carbon coins" issued to compensate for carbon reduction, Half Earth (the goal of preserving one half of the planet for species other than humans), of course photovoltaic solar energy, and others. None of these are described in detail, and the book can serve as a compendium guiding further research by the reader.
*** *** ***
I share KSR's values and worldview, at least for the most part, and I admire the vision of this novel, an optimistic scenario overall despite tragedy along the way.
The use of short passages from the point of view of unnamed minor characters and anthropomorphized characters like photons and "history" is good, lending the proceedings some similarity with John Brunner's great dystopian environmental novel "The Sheep Look Up" (1972 -- see my review), which used the experimental technique of John Dos Passos's "U.S.A. Trilogy."
I seriously doubt that this scenario will come to pass, but it is worth imagining the possibility and working toward its realization. The more likely scenarios are all nightmares.
Verified Purchase
A provocative scenario for how climate change might be fought from 2025-2053
By Autonomeus on October 31, 2020
KSR's latest is a thought-provoking scenario that sketches how the current political inertia might be disrupted, and the planet's climate stabilized.By Autonomeus on October 31, 2020
It's well worth reading, however I can't give it five stars because I find it to be lacking as a novel. The excitement takes place off camera, as it were, while the focus is on the institutional actors, including ministry staff and bankers, who meet mainly in Zurich and San Francisco. It would have been possible to use the same scenario as the basis for a much more dynamic story, it seems to me, given the range of radical actions that are essential to the outcome.
*** *** ***
The book begins with a massive heat wave in India that kills 20 million. This triggers a series of actions that accelerate global human society's response to catastrophic climate change. The central character is Mary Murphy, formerly foreign minister of Ireland, who is the head of a new U.N. "Subsidiary Body" to the Conference of the Parties to the Paris Climate Agreement, popularly known as the "Ministry for the Future" because its mandate is to speed implementation, charged with "defending all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves, by promoting their legal standing and physical protection."
While this U.N. agency, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, works through the institutions, primarily the central banks of the world, which KSR describes as the de facto world government, others engage in radical direct action. The "War for the Earth" begins on Crash Day (in the 2030s), when sixty passenger jets crash in a matter of hours, mainly private and business jets. Container ships begin to sink in large numbers. A manifesto is issued calling for an end to fossil-fuel burning transport. Following word that cattle have been infected, the beef industry is rapidly phased out. So the wave of uncoordinated actions includes carrots and sticks all aiming to reduce carbon emissions as rapidly as possible.
Stan Robinson puts forward a scathing critique of mainstream economics, and utilizes a variety of recent technological developments and policies in his scenario, including blockchain encryption of data, A.I., drone swarms, permaculture, Modern Monetary Theory (post-Keynesian economics), "carbon coins" issued to compensate for carbon reduction, Half Earth (the goal of preserving one half of the planet for species other than humans), of course photovoltaic solar energy, and others. None of these are described in detail, and the book can serve as a compendium guiding further research by the reader.
*** *** ***
I share KSR's values and worldview, at least for the most part, and I admire the vision of this novel, an optimistic scenario overall despite tragedy along the way.
The use of short passages from the point of view of unnamed minor characters and anthropomorphized characters like photons and "history" is good, lending the proceedings some similarity with John Brunner's great dystopian environmental novel "The Sheep Look Up" (1972 -- see my review), which used the experimental technique of John Dos Passos's "U.S.A. Trilogy."
I seriously doubt that this scenario will come to pass, but it is worth imagining the possibility and working toward its realization. The more likely scenarios are all nightmares.
Images in this review
Reviewed in the United States on October 13, 2020
It is also a book that is most enjoyable read in bursts in between moments of work and play, emails and cooking dinner. A big book conducive to our abbreviated attention spans. It is not a book for binging. And like the main character Mary we can finish this book of one of our possible futures, go out and enjoy our private Zurich, inspired with hope to play our small part in solving a global problem.
Verified Purchase
Kerry A book of hope
By Kerry Knudsen on October 13, 2020
When we think of climate change we can only grasp part of its reality and a fraction of the plethora of necessary solutions. It is a global problem and it needs a multi-faceted global solution. It is overwhelming and can lead to pessimism, especially in 2020. Combining traditional narrative, multi-character perspectives in first and third person, and the suspension of narrative illusion by the narrator sharing his thoughts and information Robinson creates a novel of hope that helps us grasp this overwhelming global reality of climate change and the symphony of possible solutions.By Kerry Knudsen on October 13, 2020
It is also a book that is most enjoyable read in bursts in between moments of work and play, emails and cooking dinner. A big book conducive to our abbreviated attention spans. It is not a book for binging. And like the main character Mary we can finish this book of one of our possible futures, go out and enjoy our private Zurich, inspired with hope to play our small part in solving a global problem.
Images in this review
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Brave, But Unsuccessful, Attempt at Projecting a Non-Dystopian Resolution of the Climate Crisis
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 8, 2020Verified Purchase
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