In this book, Perry devotes a chapter, entitled "The Fall of Security Ties with Russia," to the deterioration of US-Russia foreign relations after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He prefaces the chapter with George Kennan's famous characterization of NATO expansion eastwards towards Russia:
"I think it [NATO expansion] is the beginning of a new Cold War. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake."
Then, throughout the chapter, Perry offers up the following prescient observations:
"Russia considered the expansions of NATO underway in 1997–99 a threat, and they regarded the later inclusion of the Baltic States as “marching the NATO threat up to their border.” In what was less than enlightened conduct, the United States and NATO generally acted as if Russia’s concerns were inconsequential. Particularly galling to Russians were NATO’s actions in Kosovo, in the deployment of a ballistic missile defense (BMD) in Europe, and in the continuation of NATO expansion, including the Baltic states, which had been a part of the czar’s Russia and, for a few decades, the Soviet Union. Subsequently, NATO started the early processing of Georgia and Ukraine for NATO membership. Now Russia distanced itself even further from NATO and showed increased resentment of the US, believing that the US displayed no regard for Russian feelings and interests, concluding that we would do whatever suited us best, leaving Russia to cope as best it could. ... Could we have reached an agreement with Russia that protected the Kosovars? We don’t know, but I don’t think NATO tried very hard. NATO knew that the Russians could not stop their incursion into Kosovo and decided it would be done in spite of Russian concerns. However, the Russians could and did build a resentment that would manifest itself in later actions. ... [W]hen the George W. Bush administration withdrew the US from the ABM treaty with the Russians in order to deploy a BMD system in Eastern Europe directed against Iranian missiles, grave tensions with Russia built up. ... [In 2014, after] Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was overthrown by demonstrators in Maidan Square in Kiev, Putin [annexed Crimea] and supported a break-off of the largely Russian-speaking provinces in Eastern Ukraine, at first using thinly disguised Russian troops to support the local insurgents, and later not bothering with the disguise. ... The story I have related is sad, if not tragic. It is a parable of how quickly relations can sour, and how much damage can be done when two powerful nations operate in opposition to each other. In less than fifteen years the relations between the United States and Russia went from positive to an all-time low. It is particularly sad when one believes, as I do, that we had the opportunity in the 1990s to build a long-lasting cooperative relationship with Russia. The descent down the slippery slope began, I believe, with the premature NATO expansion, and I soon came to believe that the downsides of early NATO membership for Eastern European nations were even worse than I had feared. ... There is no question that actions by the Russian government have contributed to these sad results; and certainly, NATO expansion did not by itself cause them. But NATO expansion was the first step. Again, following that decision there occurred the series of other American and NATO actions that Russia found threatening: most prominently, the American deployment of BMD systems in Europe, the NATO military action against Serbia, and the proposal to offer NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia. No one of these was decisive; but together they were interpreted by Russia as a sign of disrespect for Russia’s interests—a sign that the United States did not see Russia’s views as important. It is a troubling turn of affairs that has the potential of becoming very dangerous."
To rephrase Perry's observations in light of subsequent developments: Could Joe Biden, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and NATO have reached an agreement with Russia in 2021 that would have satisfied Russian security concerns by requiring Ukrainian and Georgian neutrality while preserving their sovereignty? We don’t know, but Biden, Blinken, and NATO certainly don't seem to have tried very hard. The Biden administration and NATO, in what was less than enlightened conduct, simply assumed that Russia could not stop the expansion of NATO to Ukraine and Georgia and decided it would be done in spite of Russian concerns. There is no question that Vladimir Putin gave the order to invade Ukraine in the spring of last year and is responsible for all the devastation the people of that country are now suffering. But American intransigence and disregard for Russian security concerns about NATO expansion was the first step down the road to this tragic war.
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