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The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming
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With oil around $100 a barrel, drivers wince whenever they pull into the gas station and businesses watch their bottom lines shrink. Watch out, say doomsayers, it will only get worse as oil dries up. It's a plausible argument, especially considering the rate at which countries like China and India are now sucking up oil. Even more troubling, the world's largest oil fields sit in geopolitical hotspots like Iran and Iraq. Some believe their nations need to secure remaining supplies using military force, while others consider dwindling supplies a blessing that will help solve the problem of global warming. But wait―is it really the end of oil? Absolutely not, says geologist, economist, and industry-insider Robin Mills.
There is no other book by an industry insider that effectively counters the peak oil theory by showing where and how oil will be found in the future. There also is no other book by an insider that lays out an environmentally and geopolitically responsible path for the petroleum industry and its customers. The Myth of the Oil Crisis, written in a lively style but with scientific rigor, is thus a uniquely useful resource for business leaders, policymakers, petroleum industry professionals, environmentalists, and anyone else who consumes oil. Best of all, it offers an abundance of one commodity now in short supply: hope for the future.
- ISBN-100274980118
- ISBN-13978-0274980116
- PublisherPraeger
- Publication dateAugust 30, 2008
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions6.14 x 0.75 x 9.21 inches
- Print length336 pages
Editorial Reviews
Review
“Geologist, economist, and petroleum industry insider Mills makes an intelligent case for oil's continuing role as a major, growing energy source. A Herculean task, one would think, given public sentiment on the matter. Mills manages it by first neatly dividing opposing viewpoints into five camps: geologists (those who espouse peak oil theory), economists (the markets will work it out), militarists (use power to secure energy supplies), environmentalists (fossil fuels: no), and no-Luddites (fossil fuels, consumption, and materialism: no). He then conquers their positions with lively, exhaustive sourced arguments to say that there may be more conventional oil than reported, colossal unconventional sources, and plentiful energy substitutes. Mills shows deep understanding of the complexity of the issue, and while promising no easy fixes, he is yet hopeful: gloomy predictions do not resemble the real world and take no account of human integrity.” ―Library Journal, Starred Review
“"A debate is currently raging among geologists and economists over whether global oil production has peaked. One school of thought, buttressed by mathematical models and some empirical evidence, argues that the peak production of conventional oil occurred sometime over the last two decades. Kenneth Deffeyes' treatise is the classic statement of this position, and Matthew Simmons' application of the argument to recent Saudi production has attracted much attention. Contrarians argue that the peak-oil theorists may be right -- eventually -- but that the relative lack of new oil discoveries owes far more to underinvestment and geopolitics than to geology. Technological breakthroughs in extracting hydrocarbon from shale and deep water, they note, may be pushing out the time when peak oil might hit. Robin Mills offers a solid version of the contrarian case."
Reviewed with:
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. By Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton University Press, 2001.
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. By Matthew R. Simmons. John Wiley, 2005.” ―Foreign Affairs
Review
"Robin Millis's The Myth of the Oil Crisis is one of the most insightful books on debunking peak oil theory. With deep industry knowledge, persuasive arguments and some of the best quantitative analysis, his book demonstrates that Peak Oil Theory is a hot air balloon with more PR mileage than real insights. His comprehensive view of green energy includes 'green hydrocarbons'; acknowledging hydrocarbons will continue to play a key role in meeting increasing energy demand across the world. This is a must-read for anybody concerned with energy and environmental issues."
--William Zhao, CEO, Gaia Carbon Control Systems
About the Author
Product details
- ASIN : 0313354790
- Publisher : Praeger (August 30, 2008)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 336 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0274980118
- ISBN-13 : 978-0274980116
- Item Weight : 1.5 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.14 x 0.75 x 9.21 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #4,578,255 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #551 in Real Estate (Books)
- #742 in Petroleum Engineering
- #1,451 in Oil & Energy Industry (Books)
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In my view, the book is particularely recommendable because of two reasons:
1) Mills is both a geologist with considerable industry experience and an economist. As opposed to many single-sided authors who take one of the two distinct perspectives, Mills is able to "illuminate" the issue from two angles.
2) Assertions in the book are backed by sources - more then 700 altogether. Supporters of Hubbert's peak oil theory and opponents alike can benefit from the data gathered by Mills. While preparing my PhD in the oil industry, I was missing a book like this.
Sure, the "Myth" is not a book to read from the first to the last page. For instance, not all of the 23 most important oil countries (which are discussed one by one) may be of interest to every reader. On the other hand Mills elaboration of opposing viewpoints (geologists, economists, militarists, environmentalists, neo-luddites) or his analysis of unconventional oil supply (oil sands, heavy oil, also biofuels etc.) may be valuable chapters for reference - also for readers that may not agree with all his conclusions.
As is obvious from the title, Mills does not believe that peak oil will be coming anytime soon. It's not that he doesn't think it will ever happen; rather, he believes that it is a long way off and that we will have developed other energy sources well before peak oil becomes a major issue.
I found Mills' presentation and discussion of the opposing viewpoints outstanding. Often, books never even touch on opposing viewpoints. Mills' entire book revolves around a discussion of opposing viewpoints. He discusses not only why he believes the opposing viewpoint is wrong, but also presents his own beliefs.
Mills presents an unbelievable amount of supporting data. For the casual reader, the level of detail and support may be too much. For example, in chapter 5, he goes through 31 different countries or regions and breaks down the oil situation for each area, footnoting his data all the way along. For someone not directly involved in the oil industry, this information may be a bit much, but I can't fault him for including it as others may appreciate the level of detail. The contrast is striking compared with other information that I've read from proponents of peak oil that presented almost no supporting data.
However, Mills is not always fair. At one point relatively early in the book, he basically says that peak oil is discredited because prior predictions have proven to be false. He goes so far as to compare proponents of peak oil to prophets of the end of the world, which is unreasonable. Another time, he overstates his case and says that while oil "prices have risen sharply ... at least until 2008, the global economy sailed on almost untroubled. This points out the fallacy of claims by peak oil theorists and Neo-Luddites of the inevitability of economic collapse." I am not convinced that the claims are false just because the economy was in a good state up to 2008. The year 2008 was not exactly a joyride and peak oil theorists will tell you that it will get much worse. My point is that just because it has not happened yet is not proof that it won't happen in the future.
Mills did a convincing job discrediting Hubbert's Peak and explaining how we have enough alternative forms of energy, and the time and resources to deploy them, to avoid the economic meltdown proposed by some. In the end I came away feeling like the doom and gloom that I've read from some peak oil authors is overdone. It's difficult for someone not deeply involved in the industry to really know what's right, however, and I suspect that reality lies between Mill's position and the peak oiler's position.
One note: Some of the charts are hard to read in the kindle version. If I were buying this book again I'd buy the hardcopy version.
The book is sound. Who knows if it was sponsored by Big Oil or not. It doesn't matter. I believe the author is likely correct, in that the oil supply may not run out quite as soon as some pessimists say it will.
However, that completely misses the point. Who cares if oil runs out sooner or a little later. The fact is that using it to produce energy is dramatically changing our climate and damaging our planet in irreversible ways. If we don't stop burning oil soon we may not be around long enough to see it run out anyway! It will run out eventually, so why damage the environment, climate, economy and the cause wars by continuing to use it now just to line the pockets of a few big oil companies? Makes no sense at all.
Despite what one reviewer tries to argue, climate change is not some half-baked theory being propagated by a few scientists and some politicians like Al Gore. Who cares what Al Gore thinks. The climate change we're experiencing and that is being predicted is the consensus view among hundreds of thousands of scientists who have dedicated their lives to its study and have gathered evidence for decades (and also have evidence from millions of years of geological history). Nobody who matters argues otherwise. The only people you'll ever hear denying the reality of climate change are non-experts (e.g. some politicians speaking for oil lobbies), people payed directly or indirectly by big oil and their propaganda machine or people who are just ill-informed and have fallen for the propaganda. Ask any scientist and you'll only get the same answer.
In short - if you want to know if we're in an oil 'crisis' where oil will be depleted very soon or if it'll last a little bit longer if we continue to wreak havoc on the environment to get it, read this book. If you think it is all irrelevant like me, don't bother.
Top reviews from other countries
- the Hubbert theory of 'peak oil' is just that, a theory, and not a scientific truth
- there are major weaknesses in the Hubbert theory and there are significantly greater hydrocarbon resources than is commonly thought
- oil is not about to run out and even if it did it would not result in the collapse of civilized society
- gas and coal can be used to susbtitute for many (if not all) applications of oil
- even so, the threat of climate change means that diversification away from, and more sensible usage of, hydrocarbons is important and necessary
- there are huge opportunities for such diversification and efficiency
The book is a powerful and intelligent riposte to the doom-laden, apocalyptic genre of 'peak oil' literature.
Many environmentalists won't like it one bit but they will find it hard to argue with the facts laid out in the book - and they should remember that the author is a confirmed believer in anthropogenic global warming and its dangers.
However, read with an open mind the books shows how a calm, rational approach to energy issues is much more sensible than much of the polemical hyperbole written on the subject.
It deserves to be read widely.
it is the bible of the gas and oil resources. I recommend this to anyone!!
Anything you want is there.
The author provides a wide knowledge over the energy situation.