- File Size: 3364 KB
- Print Length: 106 pages
- Publisher: Ontonix Publications; First edition edition (November 15, 2010)
- Publication Date: November 15, 2010
- Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
- Language: English
- ASIN: B004CLYICO
- Text-to-Speech: Enabled
- Word Wise: Enabled
- Lending: Enabled
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,793,958 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
A New Theory of Risk and Rating Kindle Edition
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Top Customer Reviews
This book illustrates the limitations of the conventional approach to rating risk, particularly financial and insurance risk.
If current risk rating is based upon the "probability of possibilities" from historic data that, predominantly relates to an era of linear systems it is ill-equipped to address dynamic (non-linear) systems...and these are exactly what we have to deal with in an inter-connected world! Randomness is not merely about risk but uncertainty.
Risk Management as we know it needs to embrace complexity as a major business threat that can, now, be measured to ensure structural stability and managed to avoid collapse. Unmeasured in remains in the realms of uncertainty!
In an era of systemic risk - that travels at breakneck speed destroying structure - fragile organisations and their ecosystems can act as an "accelerant" - robust systems can act as "fire-breaks".
Financial Institutions who carry business risks NEED to, at least, supplement their current rating bases to ensure capital adequacy and to continue to offer relevant solutions for now and in the future.
As someone who has no formal scientific training I found it surprisingly easy to follow despite flirtations with Thermodynamics, Complexity, Systems, Information Theories and Zadeh's Principle of Incompatibility.
The novel theory, illustrated in the book, gives an answer to why the current techniques have failed and in meantime provides a new measure of the risks based on the complexity. Complexity, although it has a relevant role in business strategies and in company governance, doesn't have the same value as other business metrics do. Complexity is a key feature and "Meta KPI" of the level of sustainability of any business model.
As it's well explained in the book, the excessive complexity reflects chaos-dominated systems, in which the structure of the business model is weak. Rapid variations of complexity, independently of whether it is rise or fall, generally point to unstable and unhealthy systems.
The examples in the book, clearly, explain the impacts and the consequences of complexity on business and in meantime give sound indications on how the company can deal with unforeseeable and unexpected events which have characterized the recent years. This fragility, as the book highlights, if not managed, can have serious consequences which, in some cases, can be catastrophic.
Therefore, in order to compete in a turbulent and uncertain environment the conditio sine qua non is that complexity must be part of the critical success factors and business metrics already used by the management of the company.
As you begin to read the book you begin to get the knowladge of the complexity dynamics of the raitng sytems and risk asociated to the stocks markets but related to the deep concepts on complexity science.
Dr Marczyk, in this book give a very good good expamle on how science has a direct application in the Practical Complexity Management of the stocck portafolios. and stock market itself.
The reader will find coherent dissertation on complexity dynamics, real examples of information-based systems structures and a metrics system for correlation between variables which drive and trigger complexity.
As the entire research led by Dr Marczyk, this book is all about practical application of a new calculation technology, in specific of Complexity management research field. (also look for Practical Complexity Management and Practical Complexity Management Part II)
One can really test and apply those proposed concepts, rather than other publicly available theories in the Complexity management domain, which do not leave nor cross the philosophical plan and of academia debate.
This is not just a theory , but it is backed with strong foundations taken from other field (engineering).
Engineering sciences are constantly using metrics in order to validate solutions used. If a financial theory or model fails - the demage is stated in finacial losses terms( which is bad enough). On Engineering , a mistake can cost you man life ( aircrafts , building etc.)
The adoption of proven concepts from engineering fields to non engineering ones , is becoming more and more popular due to its success. This book is an excellent example to that approach.
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