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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century Paperback – January 26, 2010
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Top Customer Reviews
Of course the author believes some rough prediction of the future is possible based on trends analysis, an understanding of strategic nature, and other such information. I immediately concede that trying to predict the future is not only necessary as a basis for security planning but can be done profitably over maybe 10 years, 20 at the extreme, but only if you build in a huge amount of risk management / "reserve" into your planning results to account for the inevitable unexpected. Thus my critique is simply with the overly ambitious timeline of the author rather than the endeavor itself.
There are some positives of the book which were informative and argue in favor of reading perhaps the first half for pertinent information and analysis.Read more ›
He does a good job in preparing the reader to expect the unexpected to happen based on past history. What may sound silly now, may in fact be feasible in the future, and not necessarily far future either.
Pages are packed with very interesting insights and not surprisingly, USA is the center of history in the 21st century. Was 20th century not an American century also? Other players come on to the stage though, and as a Turk, I was really puzzled by his assertion of Turkey becoming a key global power player. It is hard to imagine now Turkey becoming much more than a regional superpower within next 50 years. It would require a succesful reformation movement in Islam for a non-Arab Muslim country to be able to lead the Muslim block, not to mention a reduction of oil based wealth creation in key Arab states that would force them to look for alliances beyond USA.
He makes a case for how the shift in demographics, mainly the drastic drop in birth rates, will alter how the history flows. His arguments and methods give us a glimpse of how a professional analyst applies his trade.
I did not agree with some of the technology related predictions and analysis. This seems his weakness and he was way off. Nuclear power will dominate for sure before we beam in microwave power from space. Solar energy is not free, except for solar heating.Read more ›
Friedman opens by taking the reader through the twentieth century at twenty-year intervals, showing how the concerns in any given time period are quickly forgotten and replaced by new concerns. This prepares the reader to see that the twenty-first century will also be anything but static, either, as America will not be facing the same set of challenges by 2020 as we did on September 11, 2001, and will be dealing with many different issues as the century progresses.
The author is a very incisive thinker, relaying stunning insight after stunning insight in demonstrating how we arrived at where we are now, with Europe having been supplanted by America as the world's focal point.
Friedman contends that, far from declining (as many fear), America is just beginning its rise. The century will be characterized, he predicts, by regional powers attempting to form coalitions to limit American power, and America attempting to prevent the formation of such coalitions. This will ultimately result at mid-century in a war that will have many similarities with World War II--the war will begin with a surprise attack on a key American military target, will be fought against a familiar foe, will result in the development of stunning new technologies, and will be followed by a new golden age redolent of the one following World War II.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
After went to all text, i am amazed of his analytical ability to past and current demografical Changes and its consequence for future. Read morePublished 21 days ago by Amazon Customer
The book talks about the American influence in the later 21st century, but it is filled with lots of If's in them. Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer
Although no one can be sure of its predictions, there is a logic behind it. Global warming and exploration of deep space and many other issues are not included, making predictions... Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer
One of the top interesting books I had read in quite a while,
Very engaging and immersive read that keeps you thinking about the content even when you are not reading. Read more
I read this on the recommendation of an acquaintance. Predictions and observations based on data such as demographics were interesting and useful. Read morePublished 3 months ago by Andrew J. Seager
It reminds me of Foundation by I. Asimov. A visionary predicting future wars, geopolitics and rise and fall of an empire.Published 3 months ago by Juanjose Manriquez
I'm by nature a pejorist so this book was a bit Pollyanna-ish for me but I found the geopolitics fascinating. Read morePublished 3 months ago by Michael Yetter