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The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010 Paperback – February 1, 2006
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David Bach New York Times bestselling author of The Automatic Millionaire Nobody called the nineties boom and bubble like Harry Dent, and now he is calling for another unexpected bull market. All investors should take notice.
From the Inside Flap
Harry S. Dent has been among the most successful forecasters of his time: His books The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000s predicted the 1990s boom ahead of anyone else.
In this new, provocative look at the coming years, Dent again casts his discerning contrarian eye on what he sees as the good times to comeand the woes to follow. Among his key predictions:
A third and final bubble takes the Dow to 35,000 to 40,000 and the Nasdaq to 13,000 by late 2009 or early 2010.
A second technology boom brings cellular, Internet, and broadband connections to 90% of U.S. households by 2009.
Inflation falls into early 2006 and rises mildly into 2009; then we see deflation between 2010 and 2023.
Another devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022.
Technology, financial services, health care, and Asia will be the best sectors from 2005 to 2009. Long-term bonds, health care, and Asia will be the best after 2009. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
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Harry Dent's economic model has proven to be accurate. Although he tries to incorporate other statistical methdologies to backup his forecasts, Harry's main tool is still his demographical analysis. Based on the fact that spending patterns differ considerably based on age, Harry has done a great job of charting the future based on economic impact of domestic consumption based on demographical changes.
Here are what I thought were the flaws:
1)Harry makes little attempt to counter his own arguments. For example, Harry does not fully address the impact of the current 3%+ productivity growth. Also, the impact of the rise and the changes in the use of IT is not addressed fully. Harry dismisses these two trends as a mere side effects of demographics and technological progress. He apparently believes neither will change the outcome of the demographic economic cycle.
2)Harry does not fully address the impact of exports. Harry fully acknowledges that domestic consumption in Asia and South America will continue to increase well into 2020. Can the rise of US exports to these regions offset the lack of domestic consumption from 2010-2025? Harry doesn't make this clear.
Mr. Dent has presented an extremely over-simplifying scenario for the next decade. Sure, demographics matter. But so do trade deficits, current account deficits, Southeast Asia exported inflation, the increased third world demand for commodities (including oil), under-funded corporate pension plans, S&P one-time charges to earnings that seem to happen every year, under-funded social security programs, tax law changes, fourth-world animosity/risk... the list just goes on and on.
Investors should take a few university-level statistics courses. 99.9% of the people with market-beating returns have done it through pure random chance... (or "blind luck"). But... of course, these market-beaters think it's due to their own "genius".
Mr. Dent knows he can't beat the market so he writes a book and makes his money by taking yours. He figures there are enough simple-minded people out there who will once again provide him with a `best seller'!
It does provide humor, however, to watch these carny hucksters at work, these sellers of pet rocks...
I think Dent has some good ideas so it's not a total bomb of a book, but too often it seems to me he is stretching and convuluting statistics to fit his model instead of remaining objectively scientific. And some of what he says is just down right misleading, even if technically accurate.
On page 200 he is trying to show that a ten year time span is not enough to over come a large bust in the market. He says that if you had purchased stocks in 1929 you would have had to wait 24 years to break even. But the fact of the matter is people don't buy stocks like that. Hardly anyone would have just bought at ONE point in time, at the PEAK of the market in 1929. People buy a little here, a little there. For instance, if someone started buying in 1929 and put a little bit in per month (dollar cost averaging) they would be buying stock at low prices as well as high prices. Done this way, it would have taken 5 years instead of 24 to break even.
So Dent uses the fact that supports his point instead of being objective.
One more example is the chart on page 175. He changed the notion of small stock out performance during the time frame 1975 - 1983 to 1958 - 1983 just to support his theory. Using that time frame matches what he's trying to show. One can use a variety of different time frames in this example but he choose one because it supports his theory, not because it's objective.
So, I think the book is worth reading and getting a few tidbits out of, but to follow it blindly - whoa is you! I just wish he was more scientifically objective. It is WAY to easy to twist statistics to support a theory. Try it yourself -- see how easy it is!
Most recent customer reviews
His books, including this one, offer several contradictory predictions, are not based on fact and rational explanations and are purely...Read more