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The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 Hardcover – Bargain Price, February 4, 2010
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From Publishers Weekly
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Top Customer Reviews
The author argues that China, with its one-child policy, will find itself by 2050 with about 30 percent of the population over age 60. This policy will also hamper it from overtaking the US in terms of GDP anytime soon. This prediction illustrates one of the pitfalls of futurology: I have read elsewhere that China has abandoned its one-child policy due to "shortages" of factory workers. Take away the one-child policy and again China is an economic dynamo.
As in his previous book, The City: A Global History (Modern Library Chronicles), Kotkin is a champion of suburbia and the exurbs. This distinguishes him from Richard Florida who champions the creative class of the metropolitan areas. Kotkin believes future growth, both demographic and economic, will be in the lesser known heartland suburbias, where the standard of living is lower and regulations are fewer.Read more ›
Kotkin indicates that today 30% of the US population is nonwhite. By, 2050 this figure will reach 50% due to both fertility and immigration patterns.
A difference in immigrant integration can be observed between Muslims in Europe vs the U.S. In Europe they are marginalized, discriminated and unemployed. In the U.S. Muslims have education and income levels above the national average and 80% are registered to vote. America's culture better transcends religion or race.
Kotkin believes demography is destiny, and the more vibrant U.S. demographics insures it will remain a dominant power culturally and economically. This contrasts with everyone who has sold the U.S. short for decades. But, Kotkin indicates the recent history has not collaborated with any of those dire predictions. This is even true after this worldwide Great Recession caused by Wall Street, US regulators, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, rating agencies, and US borrowers. Yet, the US is on the rebound while Europe is tangled in a sovereign debt crisis lead by its weakest link: Greece.Read more ›
Kotkin grounds his optimism in solid demographics (my Dad's profession - one reason why I'm so excited to hear from him where Kotkin gets it wrong). Kotkin's basic argument is that the United States will reap a demographic dividend of relatively high fertility and immigration rates, one that will result in growing demand for goods and services and an expanding pool of talent, energy and innovation. This growth will be centered in our increasingly vibrant and diverse suburbs, but even the old industrial cities will benefit as their low costs drive in-migration.
Kotkin takes the "anti-suburb and anti-growth" pundits head-on, noting (accurately) that people choose to move to suburbs for amenities such as good schools and good housing. Jobs and culture tend to follow the people, a cycle that increases both productivity and brings new opportunity. The description of Manhattan, Boston, and San Francisco has "luxury cities" is priceless - with Kotkin arguing that the new cities (concentrated in the South West spread all over) may get less cultural attention but will be the places of opportunity for our children and their immigrant neighbors.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
A very useful thought process; the author is really asking the question - Where will the Next Hundred Million Americans go?Published 2 months ago by wckercher2
I found this book very interesting as I'm interested in the future of our country. It gave me some great insight for what we may expect the U.S. Read morePublished 5 months ago by Jesse Deringer
My only qualm was that I was hoping for a bit more specificity from Mr.Kotkin's predictions for the country 50 years from now. Read morePublished 10 months ago by Zackary D. Barron
Joel Kotkin is one of America's greatest treasures. See for yourself in this incisive book that looks to a brighter future for America and its growing population.Published on December 23, 2013 by M Ballon
If you are tired of the same ol' new urbanism or bust reading then check this out. Im in my mid 30's and find this book refreshing. Read morePublished on September 2, 2013 by Jeremy
Like another reviewer, I thought I would like this book. I was disappointed. The author makes numerous claims about the US remaining strong despite of growing demographics,... Read morePublished on January 12, 2012 by masmelo
This book has its moments, but it is far from being a great book. Elements of it are worth a read, but the breadth of topics within the task ends up being too much for the author,... Read morePublished on November 22, 2011 by George Fulmore
The historical background behind it was some what interesting, however the prediction of the future seemed unlinked to the historical backing and often unrelated. Read morePublished on March 6, 2011 by ctrevino