- Series: Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making
- Paperback: 412 pages
- Publisher: Cambridge University Press (March 25, 2002)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0521890500
- ISBN-13: 978-0521890502
- Product Dimensions: 6 x 1 x 9 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 2 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,977,400 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Organizational Decision Making (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making) Paperback – March 25, 2002
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"[A] terrific book... It contains the seeds for numerous dissertations- questions begging to be examined more closely. Whether you simply want to understand current thought about organizational decision making or are looking for promising research opportunities, this book is the place to look." American Journal of Psychology
"Organizational Decision Making is a superb collection, perhaps the best [of its kind] to date...highly relevant to both business and law." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago
"An excellent reflection of the field, containing many novel and compelling insights. I encourage all scholars of decision making to read the book and to engage in the debate about the nature and future of the field." Administative Science Quarterly
"For any scholars who are interested in the process of decision making within organizations, Organizational Decision Making is required reading, for it covers the breadth of the field extremely well. " Contemporary Psychology
"Succeeds in offering the reader a varied perspective of organizational decision making....Should be well received in the fields of business and the behavioral sciences....Not only explains what research on organizational decision making can do now but also what it offers for the future." Applied Cognitive Psychology
Decision making in organizations is often pictured as a coherent and rational process in which alternative interests and perspectives are considered in an orderly manner until the optimal alternative is selected. Yet, as many members of organization have discovered, real decision processes in organizations only seldom fit such a description. This book offers a more realistic account of decision making in organizations by highlighting several aspects such as the salience of incentives, the pervasiveness of conflict, and the role that power and politics play in organizational decision making.
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J M Keynes was the first to provide a formal analysis in his A Treatise on Probability(TP) in 1921 when he defined a measure,w, on the unit interval between 0 and 1 that measured the completeness of the relevant ,potential available evidence or knowledge(versus relevant ignorance)upon which a decision maker would base his estimates of probabilities.Unless w=1,it will be impossible to specify a specific probability distribution and/or use unique,single numbers to serve as numerical estimates.If w<1,the best a decision maker can do is to use interval estimates or comparative estimates.If w=1,then Keynes's theory merges with the special subjectivist or personalist theory constructed by F P Ramsey in 1926.Let A,B and C be the arguments of Ramsey's conditional probabilities and a,b, and c the arguments of Keynes's conditional probabilities.Only in the case where w=1 will P(A/B)=C be the same as P(a/b)=c.In his 1931 review of Ramsey's works,Keynes yields to Ramsey only in the case where the probability calculus is operational.Of course,the probability calculus is only operational in the case where w=1.Only in this case will the standard addition and multiplication operations give numerical answers.The interested reader can find Keynes's analysis on p.315 and p.315,footnote 2 of his TP.Every decision theorist in the Twentieth Century has overlooked Keynes's contribution.