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Martin J. Rees

Our Final Hour Hardcover – March 19, 2003

by Martin Rees (Author)

4.3 119 ratings

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A scientist known for unraveling the complexities of the universe over millions of years, Sir Martin Rees now warns that humankind is potentially the maker of its own demise--and that of the cosmos. Though the twenty-first century could be the critical era in which life on Earth spreads beyond our solar system, it is just as likely that we have endangered the future of the entire universe. With clarity and precision, Rees maps out the ways technology could destroy our species and thereby foreclose the potential of a living universe whose evolution has just begun.Rees boldly forecasts the startling risks that stem from our accelerating rate of technological advances. We could be wiped out by lethal "engineered" airborne viruses, or by rogue nano-machines that replicate catastrophically. Experiments that crash together atomic nuclei could start a chain reaction that erodes all atoms of Earth, or could even tear the fabric of space itself. Through malign intent or by mistake, a single event could trigger global disaster. Though we can never completely safeguard our future, increased regulation and inspection can help us to prevent catastrophe. Rees's vision of the infinite future that we have put at risk--a cosmos more vast and diverse than any of us has ever imagined--is both a work of stunning scientific originality and a humanistic clarion call on behalf of the future of life.

Print length

240 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Basic Books
Publication date

March 19, 2003
Dimensions

5.5 x 0.5 x 9.25 inches
ISBN-10

0465068626
ISBN-13

978-0465068623
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Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Just when you've stopped worrying and learned to love the bomb, along comes Sir Martin Rees, Britain's Astronomer Royal, with teeming armies of deadly viruses, nanobots, and armed fanatics. Beyond the hazards most of us know about--smallpox, terrorists, global warming--Rees introduces the new threats of the 21st century and the unholy political and scientific alliances that have made them possible. Our Final Hour spells out doomsday scenarios for cosmic collisions, high-energy experiments gone wrong, and self-replicating machines that steadily devour the biosphere. If we can avoid driving ourselves to extinction, he writes, a glorious future awaits; if not, our devices may very well destroy the universe.

What happens here on Earth, in this century, could conceivably make the difference between a near eternity filled with ever more complex and subtle forms of life and one filled with nothing but base matter.

For many technological debacles, Rees places much of the blame squarely on the shoulders of the scientists who participate in perfecting environmental destruction, biological menaces, and ever-more powerful weapons. So is there any hope for humanity? Rees is vaguely optimistic on this point, offering solutions that would require a level of worldwide cooperation humans have yet to exhibit. If the daily news isn't enough to make you want to crawl under a rock, this book will do the trick. --Therese Littleton

From Publishers Weekly

Nano-machines stand poised to revolutionize technology and medicine, but what happens if these minuscule beasties break their leash and run amok? Rees, the U.K.'s Astronomer Royal and prolific author (Just Six Numbers; Our Cosmic Habitat), warns that the 21st century may well witness the extinction of mankind, a doomsday more likely to be caused by human error than by a natural catastrophe. Bioterrorists are the most widely publicized threat at the moment, but well-intentioned scientists, Rees says, are capable of accidentally wiping out mankind via genetically engineered superpathogens that create unprecedented pandemics, or even through something as weird as high-energy particle experiments that backfire and cause the universe to implode. Rees poses some hard questions about scientists' responsibility to forsake research that might lead to a malevolent genie being let out of its bottle and even to restrict the sharing of scientific information to prevent it from getting into the wrong hands. Ultimately, though, Rees sounds more alarmist than precautionary. Some may find him overly optimistic on what science will be capable of doing in the next quarter century. Rees makes some provocative points, but the book falls short of what readers expect from a scientist of his stature.
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Booklist

British astrophysicist Rees has made it his mission to help the public to think big about the universe and our species' role within it. In his latest popular treatise, he offers an unflinchingly grim assessment of the risks associated with myriad scientific advances, from nuclear weapons to genetic engineering. Even readers aware of the negative impact humankind has had on the biosphere will find Rees' vision of the likelihood of a cataclysmic outcome of our nuclear, biological, and cyber pursuits shocking, and yet his arguments are so cogent and his intentions so good--he is making a dramatic case for scientific literacy--that his dire warning is more invigorating than debilitating. Rees' most arresting futuristic scenarios involve biotechnologies that will change the very essence of human nature, and he also offers some chilling observations regarding bioterror and bioerror, certain that one or the other will kill a million people by 2020. Chilling predictions of doom are interrupted by compelling insights into various scientific discoveries. Science, Rees reminds readers, has incalculable social, even cosmic, ramifications, and it must be conducted accordingly. Donna Seaman
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Review

"Heady, scary-and very scholarly-stuff . . . Rees writes with beautiful simplicity. This is a conversational book, totally accessible to a general reader." -- The Baltimore Sun

About the Author

Matrin Rees is a leading researcher on cosmic evolution, black holes, and galaxies. He has himself originated many key ideas, and brings a unique perspective to themes discussed in this book. He is currently a Royal Society Research Professor, and Great Britain's Astronomer Royal. Through based in Cambridge University for most of his career, he travels extensively, and collaborates wit many colleagues in the U.S. and elsewhere. He is an enthusiast for international collaboration in research, and is a member of several foreign academies.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Basic Books (March 19, 2003)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0465068626
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0465068623
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 6.4 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 0.5 x 9.25 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #2,252,918 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #776 in Philosophy Reference (Books)
- #4,122 in Astronomy (Books)

Customer Reviews:
4.3 119 ratings

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Michael AG

Important, but less focused than the title implies

Reviewed in the United States on November 12, 2003

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"The theme of this book," Martin Rees writes, "is that humanity is more at risk than at any earlier phase in its history." Natural risks such as colliding with an asteroid have not changed; they are the baseline. What is new is the power that science has given small numbers of people - possibly as few as one - to endanger the entire species. Our destiny depends increasingly on choices that we make ourselves. These are important themes that should have been developed in more detail. Unfortunately, some of this relatively short book is taken up with futurist padding separated from the main point.
Rees begins with familiar threats from nuclear and biological weapons, noting Fred Ikle's view that only an oppressive police state could assure total government control over novel tools of mass destruction. Rees then turns to the implications of genetic engineering, including the creation of new forms of life that could feed off other materials in our environment. Thanks to genetic engineering, the nature of humans could begin to change within this century; human character and physique will soon be malleable. The potential threats may remind some readers of Frank Herbert's novel The White Plague, in which a lone scientist creates a spectacular method of revenge.
Rees is most effective when he describes the potential implications of scientific experiments, particularly in particle physics. He notes that some experiments are designed to generate conditions more extreme than ever occur naturally. Here readers will learn about the possible human creation of black holes and strangelets. Errors and unpredictable outcomes are a growing cause for worry; calculations of risk are based on probability rather than certainty. Rees tells us that one person's act of irrationality, or even one person's error, could do us all in. That should motivate a circumspect attitude toward technical innovations that pose even a small threat of catastrophic failure, though putting effective brakes on a field of research would require international consensus. Rees speculates that the abandonment of privacy may be the minimal price for maintaining security.
Rees is particularly critical of American attitudes toward science and technology. Commenting that there are some who have a tenuous hold on rationality, he states that "their numbers may grow in the US." Later in the book, he writes that in the US "bizarre beliefs seem almost part of the mainstream." The United States is hardly the only source of irrational people.
Rees then turns to more conventional futurism, discussing the search for extraterrestrial life and human expansion into the solar system. He implicitly advocates that humans should establish colonies beyond the Earth to assure that the species will survive a disaster on its home planet.

There are some errors. Rees writes that the Challenger explosion took place in 1987; it actually was a year earlier. He describes Gerard O'Neill as an engineering professor; O'Neill actually was a professor of physics. Rees links the SETI at Home computer network with the SETI Institute; in fact, that program is associated with Serendip IV, a project invented by professors at the University of California at Berkeley.

52 people found this helpful

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OUTSTANDING, BUT LEAVES OPEN WHO SHOULD AND CAN MAKE FATEFUL CHOICES

Reviewed in the United States on March 13, 2017

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The opening paragraph of the book presents the message which Sir Reed helped to put on the public agenda: “Science is advancing faster than ever, and on a broader front: bio-, cyber- and nanotechnology, all offer exhilarating prospects; so does the exploration of space. But there is a dark side: new science can have unintended consequences; it empowers individuals to perpetrate acts of megaterror; even innocent effort could be catastrophic…” (p. VII).

The phase shift of humanity from Anthropocene into a radically novel epoch which I call “Anthroporegenesis”, in which humanity will recreate itself and its environments thanks to surging power supplied by science and technology, raises three fateful questions: what are the novel dangers and opportunities; what are the options for coping with them; and who should decide what to do and be in charge of doing so.

Most of this book is devoted to the paramount part of the first question and explores main dangers posed to humanity by emerging science and technology. It does so admirably, including enlightening philosophic discourse and inspiring ideas. With some updating, such as the population projections, pp. 102-105), and some additions, such as on human enhancement, this volume should be obligatory reading for all public leaders and all students of humankind issues.

But, as nearly all books dealing with emerging human predicaments resulting from peaking science and technology, this one too does not cope with the fateful question who, on behalf of humanity and for its sake, should decide what to do and enforce what is necessary.

Rees recognizes the problem, stating “some physics experiments offer an interesting ‘case study’ of who should decide (and how) whether to sanction an experiment with a catastrophic ‘downside’ that is very improbable but not quite inconceivable” (p. 119). He quotes Fred Ikle’s 1997 statement “The knowledge and technique for making biological superweapons will become dispersed among hospital laboratories, agricultural research institutes, and peaceful factories everywhere. Only an oppressive police state could assure total government control over such novel tools for mass destruction” (p. 48). The book also mentions the need for “intrusive surveillance” (pp. 66-68); Fukayama’s suggestion of strict control of mind-altering drugs (p. 69); and, the need to restrain science and technology, or at least slow them down (discussed in excellent chapter 6). Rees fully recognized that “Ethical constraints on research, or relinquishment of potentially threatening technologies, are difficult to agree and even tougher to implement” (p. 73).

The need for deeply tragic existential choices is acknowledged by statements such as “These risks can’t be eliminated; indeed, it will be hard to stop them from growing without encroaching on some cherished personal freedoms” (p. 186). All the more pressing is the question who shall decide what is more important: reducing humanity-endangering risks or preserving cherished personal freedoms, when every choice is in essence a fuzzy gamble.

The insight that “Our destiny depends …above all on choices that we ourselves make during the present century” (p. 130), expanded into the daring conjecture that “We live at what could be a defining moment for the cosmos, not just for our Earth” (p. 181) sharpens even more the question who are “we” making the choices.” But, as nearly all the books dealing with emerging human predicaments resulting from peaking science and technology, this one too does not tackle this crucial issue. The section on “Who Should Decide” (pp. 127-129), however interesting, does not really do so.

This is disturbing, but not surprising. Revising the “two cultures” thesis of C.P. Snow, I think that three “pure type” cultures/communities are (1) science and technology, devoted to advancing knowledge and applications; (2) science and society, dealing with interactions between novel science and technology and society as well as humanity as a whole; and (3) power and politics, concerned which decision makers and powerful actors. 1 and 2 interact and partly overlap. But both often lack real understanding of of power and politics, while the latter does not understand 1 and hardly cares about 2.

If we add the “politically incorrect” and even “taboo” nature of what may be essential for coping with the dangers posed by science and technology, then lack of adequate treatments of the needed agency is not surprising. But this is a potentially fatal lacuna, which needs urgently deeper and franker treatment the available at present. This book helps a lot by succinctly posing main issues; but the question of humankind agency remains open.

Professor Yehezkel Dror
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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Peter L. Swinford

Informative But Not Persuasive

Reviewed in the United States on July 23, 2003

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A good book, but not persuasive. Can we do great harm to each other with less-than-total nuclear war, certainly. But we would continue as a species. And our predecessors survived the concurrent existence of smallpox, cholera, yellow fever, tuberculosis, polio, the plague, and many other infectious agents. And as to nanotechnology, the world is a tough place at the atomic level, so delicate processes would not survive, and robust devices will probably not have the flexibility needed for an Assembler. Nanotech, if we ever master it, will be a next century or beyond technology. Our freedoms may be the unavoidable victim as we seek to enhance security in a time of individual access to dangerous technologies. This book is a great overview of impending, possible disasters, but the major premise of the book, namely that there is a great probability of our species causing our own extinction within this century is not sufficiently supported. It does end with an interesting call for us to seek human colonies "off world", though I don't think we understand the complexity of the support structure needed to have a self-sustaining colony on Mars (i.e. what happens when an essential integrated circuit manufactured in an industruial complex finally breaks).

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Anantha Nageswaran

Good in parts

Reviewed in India on June 18, 2018

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The book dealt with immediate questions - questions that humanity must find answers for. Then, it veered off into the abstract. It rambled it’s way to the end. That was a bit disappointing because I was glued for the first 6-7 chapters. But, overall good message and a relevant message of warning, of humility. I was so happy that I came to learn of the article by Bill Joy from this book. I also read an interview of Sir Rees and an article about him. After reading them, my respect for him only grew.

Michael Evans

As submitted

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 18, 2019

Verified Purchase

It was a library book from Texas - but that is Ok because I intend to buy the author’s latest book.

philip sharpe

A call to action

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 12, 2018

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A somewhat gloomy appraisal of mankind's fate, attributable to endemic ignorance.