I read this book in 2013 when it was first published. It is now near the end of 2024, 12 years later. Back in 2013, you rarely read about AI (artificial intelligence), AGI (artificial general intelligence) or ASI (artificial super intelligence); now, I see mention of them in the press and other media almost daily.
Barrat's book attempts two things: (1) to convince the reader that artificial intelligence is here today and growing --- and its growth is accelerating, and (2) to argue that humanity MUST develop ways to instill AI with some type of morality or ethics, so that, even though its intelligence will surpass that of humanity, it will in some sense respect its creators and not turn on us. In the first effort, Barrat certainly succeeds --- the past 12 years have proved that. But, based on what I have been hearing and reading since ChatGPT hit the internet two years ago, except for a few voices crying out in the wilderness, humanity is making little if any progress on the second item --- perhaps that task is close to impossible?
Barrat defines AGI as a level of intelligence roughly equal to that of human beings. He defines ASI as a level of intelligence greater than that. He then argues that AI will soon be able to both replicate itself and increase its intelligence --- and do so more and more rapidly. In 2024, I repeatedly read that AI will reach AGI within the next 3 to 5 years --- then, how long will it be before AGI learns to improve itself? Think of intelligence measured by points on a continuum (like a number line from high school math). AGI (modern day human-level intelligence) is a fixed point on that continuum. But at what point, either somewhat smaller than AGI or somewhat larger than AGI, will AI, of its own accord, begin to move to higher and higher points on the continuum (which is what Barrat means by AI improving itself)? We have no way of knowing, but Barrat argues convincingly that this phenomenon WILL occur, and most of the book is devoted to this argument.
Digression: Our universe contains billions and billions of planets, and, I suspect, many with life, and, many of those with intelligent life. Won't a substantial number of them have gone through the AGI - ASI process? Is there no evidence of this that we can detect with our telescopes? In a universe populated with ASI's, why haven't we heard anything? Are we one of the first civilizations to develop artificial intelligence? Barrat doesn't open this Pandora's box, but I suspect he was tempted to (see pp. 90 - 92).
To the curious reader: Look through the other 5-star reviews. Most of them bring up similar, valid points. Barrat has written an intelligent, highly readable book that is also, frankly, pretty alarming. And it is not dated at all --- it reads as though it was written yesterday. It is well worth reading now and in the foreseeable future.
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The issue of our time -- where humanity is headed.
Despite the dire warnings contained within, this book is a fascinating read. I read it all in one sitting and couldn't set it down.I won't lie -- I sometimes find it hard to take a near-term AI revolution seriously. Given that the field has seemingly "cried wolf" on the arrival of strong AI for decades, it seems like they've used up all their credibility.But James Barrat explains why there are good reasons to expect there to be true human-level AI soon despite the failure to create it for so long. And as this human-level AI arrives, humanity will soon have to figure out how to navigate sharing the planet with a new species of intelligence minds. These minds will not share our values by default and we many not be able to trade or negotiate with them the way we expect given our centuries of dealing with other humans.The rest of the explanations in the book need to be read along with the evidence to be believed, but there are many deep and powerful insights contained in here. I'm planning to read it again and expect this to be the new book I give to all my friends for a long time coming.
Top reviews from other countries
- Murat GueneyselReviewed in Germany on November 3, 2023
Eye opening facts about the greatest risk which humankind might experience In future
- Amazon CustomerReviewed in India on April 2, 2022
An eye opener for humanity
An eye opener After waiting for almost 1 month for the book I m utterly happy to read it. Just gives a experience how wonderfully James Barratt had presented the senarior where humanity is walking towards. Really thrilling and where humanity is heading towards if we don't think of our next generation for humanityAn eye opener for humanityAmazon Customer
Reviewed in India on April 2, 2022
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