- Hardcover: 288 pages
- Publisher: Harvard University Press; 1 edition (October 29, 2004)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0674015762
- ISBN-13: 978-0674015760
- Product Dimensions: 6 x 1 x 8.5 inches
- Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 4 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,861,919 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions 1st Edition
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From Publishers Weekly
"Does a human tendency toward overconfidence lead us into wars when a more realistic assessment might keep the peace?" Johnson, a fellow at Princeton's Society of Fellows, poses that question in this debut, and his answer, stretched out over eight densely written chapters, is (much more often than not): yes. Johnson hones in on different nations' decisions at what he posits as turning points in 20th-century history: WWI and the Vietnam War, which became shooting wars, and the Munich Crisis of 1938 and the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, which did not. Johnson ties the trait of overconfidence to humankind's evolutionary past, maintaining that it is "an integral part of the human psyche." He finds the Iraq war, to which he devotes his last chapter, a consequence of that overconfidence. Johnson is meticulous in backing up his assertions, but (despite the trade-like subtitle) the book reads like an academic treatise; be prepared for arguments made solely for other experts, long stretches of quotation and dense charts.
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Dominic Johnson shows that international conflicts need not escalate into long, costly wars -- if decision-makers rely on well-vetted information and avoid wishful thinking. He provides a lucid, convincing analysis of the disastrous consequences when normal confidence gives way to arrogance, causing leaders to believe their own propaganda, assume superiority, and deny facts. (Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Harvard Business School Professor and author of Confidence: How Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks Begin and End)
Overconfidence and War is a fascinating and insightful analysis. Its skillful blend of history, psychology, and evolutionary biology is a model for a new kind of social analysis, one that will have increasing prominence in the years to come. (Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works and The Blank Slate)
The puzzle of why countries go to war is a puzzle only for those who assume that humans are calculating machines. Dominic Johnson provides a scientific foundation for understanding how humans really make decisions about the most important questions they face. We need more books like Overconfidence and War. (Stephen Peter Rosen, Harvard University)
This is an important book, both timely and of enduring value. It traces in detail the dreadful connection between self-deception and human warfare and suggests the kinds of thinking we must guard against if we are to avoid war. Read this book in hopes of a better, more conscious day-a day when we will not blunder so easily and stupidly off the first cliff inviting us to war. (Robert Trivers)
Dominic Johnson's attack on the war puzzle is novel, convincing, and appealing. Steeped in sound biology and a detailed account of key well-documented conflicts, Overconfidence and War marks an important advance in the long-anticipated integration of political science and evolutionary theory. (Richard Wrangham, co-author of Demonic Males)
Johnson applies the logic of evolution to international relations. Following one of his mentors, the Harvard anthropologist Richard Wrangham, he suggests that overconfidence might once have been helpful in war and conflict. On the ancient African savannah, it was actually rational to misestimate your own capacities: a fearsome appearance and bold tactics could intimidate the enemy and help carry the day during lightning raids on enemy camps. But today, given modern weaponry, bureaucratic planning and mass armies, a cocky disposition is as likely to be suicidal as it is glorious. Military overconfidence, in other words, is a psychological holdover--a cognitive appendix--from an earlier period in human history. It is perhaps most dangerous when it prompts a decision for war in the first place. And it could be the X-factor explaining the otherwise inexplicable in recent military history: French faith in the Maginot line, Hitler's drive into Russia, the American failure to heed the lessons of French defeat in Vietnam. Most humans are prone to overestimating themselves, but leaders (who are inordinately ambitious and, by definition, have suffered few recent professional setbacks) are especially susceptible. Fittingly, the cover of Johnson's book features George W. Bush in the famous flight suit, flashing an exuberant thumbs-up. (Christopher Shea New York Times Magazine 2004-12-12)
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This is pathbreaking work, which along with Harvard Professor Stephen Rosen's "War and Human Nature" will change the fields of political science and international relations.
Overconfidence and War has three unique features:
1. Grounds Political science in genetic evolution and modern Darwinism.
Dr. Johnson examines how an evolved human nature can be adaptive for ancestral humans and catastrophic for industrialized humans. Give a caveman nuclear weapons and what do you think would happen? Exactly.
2. Provides great summaries of key wars & conflicts.
Dr. Johnson's chapters covering individual conflicts are better than most books on the subjects.
3. Clear thinking = clear writing.
Dr. Johnson proves that being smart and well-educated doesn't mean being unreadable. The writing is concise, eloquent, and fun to read.
An excellent work. Well done sir.
He cogently explains why international warfare is so damned hard to irradicate. On top of this, he combines structural historical theories with darwinian theory. A brilliant synthesis and one more indviduals need to consider. Finally, he writes clearly, forcefully, and with eloquence. There is no hint of the "I am smarter than you and I will prove it" syndrome with Johnson. Nope. Short and to the point.
His basic idea is that war can be explained, in part, by positive illusions. Individuals have been shown to possess positive illusions about many things, such as their intelligence, athleticism, sexiness, etc. Don't buy it? Do this quick thought experiment: ask 100 random people to rate their intelligence from 1 to 10, with 5 anchored as average. How many people do you think will pick 2 or 3? QED!
Johnson explains the adaptive advantages of having positive illusions. These might include motivation to take action, unwillingness to quite, etc.
After using darwinian theory to explain why humans have positive illusions (that is, to anchor the proximate in the ultimate), Johnson proceeds to apply positive illusions to instances of warfare.
The case studies are well chosen, well researched, and illuminating. I don't want to spoil the book, so I will not give away the details. However, if you want to know why the U.S. has such an insanely hubristic foreign policy, and why that foreign policy may bring us ruin as a superpower, read Johnson.