Buy New
Free Shipping for Prime Members
FREE Shipping
Get free shipping
Free 5-8 business-day shipping within the U.S. when you order $25 of eligible items sold or fulfilled by Amazon.
Or get 4-5 business-day shipping on this item for $5.99. (Prices may vary for AK and HI.)
Learn more about free shipping
on orders over $25—or get FREE Two-Day Shipping with Amazon Prime
In Stock.
Ships from and sold by Gift-wrap available.
Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes... has been added to your Cart
Have one to sell? Sell on Amazon

Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs


4.0 out of 5 stars 2 customer reviews

Additional DVD options Edition Discs
New from Used from
(Aug 16, 2007)
$8.95 $8.87

Editorial Reviews

What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?

From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. (Liberals were sure that Reagan was a dangerous idiot; conservatives were sure that the USSR was permanent.) The whole exercise struck Tetlock as what used to be called an outcome-irrelevant learning structure. No feedback, no correction.

He observes the same thing is going on with expert opinion about the Iraq War. Instead of saying, I evidently had the wrong theory, the experts declare, It almost went my way, or It was the right mistake to make under the circumstances, or I'll be proved right later, or The evilness of the enemy is still the main event here.

Tetlock's summary: Partisans across the opinion spectrum are vulnerable to occasional bouts of ideologically induced insanity. He determined to figure out a way to keep score on expert political forecasts, even though it is a notoriously subjective domain (compared to, say, medical advice), and there are no control groups in history.

So Tetlock took advantage of getting tenure to start a long-term research project now 18 years old to examine in detail the outcomes of expert political forecasts about international affairs. He studied the aggregate accuracy of 284 experts making 28,000 forecasts, looking for pattern in their comparative success rates. Most of the findings were negative--- conservatives did no better or worse than liberals; optimists did no better or worse than pessimists. Only one pattern emerged consistently.

How you think matters more than what you think.

Special features


Product details

  • Format: NTSC
  • Region: All Regions
  • Studio: Whole Earth Films
  • DVD Release Date: August 16, 2007
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars 2 customer reviews
  • ASIN: B000V76TYS
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #274,994 in Movies & TV (See Top 100 in Movies & TV)
  • Would you like to tell us about a lower price?
    If you are a seller for this product, would you like to suggest updates through seller support?

Customer Reviews

Share your thoughts with other customers
See all 2 customer reviews

Top customer reviews

May 10, 2014
Format: DVD|Verified Purchase
2 people found this helpful
|Comment|Report abuse
December 26, 2013
Format: DVD|Verified Purchase

Set up an Amazon Giveaway

Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs
Amazon Giveaway allows you to run promotional giveaways in order to create buzz, reward your audience, and attract new followers and customers. Learn more about Amazon Giveaway
This item: Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs