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Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence Hardcover – November 15, 2022
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Disruption resulting from the proliferation of AI is coming. The authors of the bestselling Prediction Machines can help you prepare.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted many industries around the world—banking and finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, medical technology, manufacturing, and retail. But it has only just begun its odyssey toward cheaper, better, and faster predictions that drive strategic business decisions. When prediction is taken to the max, industries transform, and with such transformation comes disruption.
What is at the root of this? In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it. The rise of AI is shifting prediction from humans to machines, relieving people from this cognitive load while increasing the speed and accuracy of decisions.
This sets the stage for a flourishing of new decisions and has profound implications for system-level innovation. Redesigning systems of interdependent decisions takes time—many industries are in the quiet before the storm—but when these new systems emerge, they can be disruptive on a global scale. Decision-making confers power. In industry, power confers profits; in society, power confers control. This process will have winners and losers, and the authors show how businesses can leverage opportunities, as well as protect their positions.
Filled with illuminating insights, rich examples, and practical advice, Power and Prediction is the must-read guide for any business leader or policymaker on how to make the coming AI disruptions work for you rather than against you.
- Print length288 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherHarvard Business Review Press
- Publication dateNovember 15, 2022
- Dimensions6.5 x 1.25 x 9.75 inches
- ISBN-101647824192
- ISBN-13978-1647824198
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"Highly accessible, cleverly written [with] great ideas for practically implementing AI across a system." — Dialogue
"A must for anyone with an interest in how the world may look in future." — Institute of Leadership and Management Edge magazine
Named one of the 10 Best Business Books of 2022 by Forbes
A Toronto Star Bestseller
"This jauntily written and thought-provoking book sketches out how this new economic revolution might unfold." — Financial Times
"…a timely and insightful follow up to Prediction Machines." — Engineering and Technology Magazine, The Institution of Engineering and Technology
"It's an interesting argument, and the book that Gans and his co-authors have published makes a strong case for developing system-level AI applications in organizations and institutions…" — Forbes
Advance Praise for Power and Prediction:
"This is a book that leaders of all types of organizations should read. It explains the enormous size of the AI opportunity and the challenges in getting there." — Dominic Barton, Chair, Rio Tinto; former Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & Company
"AI may be to the twenty-first century what electricity was to the twentieth. This is the best book yet that considers what it will mean for all who participate in our economy." — Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and former president, Harvard University; former secretary, US Treasury; and former chief economist, World Bank
"AI will surely displace jobs and disrupt industries in the decades to come. The system-level changes that are on the horizon are excitingly discussed in this book." — Vinod Khosla, founder, Khosla Ventures; cofounder, Sun Microsystems
"Power and Prediction is a hugely thought-provoking and inspiring primer on how to shape strategy and design organizations in the age of AI." — Heather Reisman, founder and CEO, Indigo Books and Music
"We're told AI will be the most important thing humanity ever works on, yet it feels abstract and niche in its current impact on the world. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to peek around the corner into AI's future." — Shivon Zilis, Director of Operations and Special Projects, Neuralink; former project director, Tesla
"Nobody provides more insight into the fundamental economics of AI and what AI truly enables than Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb." — Tiff Macklem, governor, Bank of Canada
"Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb have done it again! Their new book, Power and Prediction, is destined to become the definitive guide to understanding how and why AI is transforming the economy." — Erik Brynjolfsson, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor, Stanford University; Director, Stanford Digital Economy Lab; coauthor, The Second Machine Age
"Whether we like it or not, artificial intelligence is set to influence every aspect of our lives. How can we make sure that individuals, companies, and organizations benefit from it rather than waste time and resources dealing with unintended consequences? This readable book provides an excellent introduction, emphasizing how AI can improve what we do by providing better predictions and helping reorganize systems." — Daron Acemoglu, Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics, MIT; author, When Nations Fail
"Power and Prediction is an important book not only for economists who model the impact of artificial intelligence and entrepreneurs who want to maximize its benefits but also for social scientists and public policy analysts. The authors put prediction problems squarely within the systems and the rules in which they operate to help us understand what will work and why. Along the way, they shine a new light on the importance of systems and rules. A must read for everyone in the public as well as the private sector." — Janice Gross Stein, Professor of Political Science, Munk School, University of Toronto
About the Author
Ajay Agrawal is Professor of Strategic Management and the Geoffrey Taber Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. He is founder of the Creative Destruction Lab and the Metaverse Mind Lab and cofounder of NEXT Canada and Sanctuary.
Joshua Gans is the Jeffrey S. Skoll Chair of Technical Innovation and Entrepreneurship and Professor of Strategic Management at Toronto's Rotman School of Management. He is Chief Economist of the Creative Destruction Lab, department editor (Strategy) at Management Science, and cofounder and managing director of Core Economic Research.
Avi Goldfarb is the Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare and Professor of Marketing at Toronto's Rotman School of Management. He is also Chief Data Scientist at the Creative Destruction Lab, a fellow at Behavioral Economics in Action at Rotman, and a faculty affiliate at the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence.
Product details
- Publisher : Harvard Business Review Press
- Publication date : November 15, 2022
- Language : English
- Print length : 288 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1647824192
- ISBN-13 : 978-1647824198
- Item Weight : 1.2 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.5 x 1.25 x 9.75 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #81,235 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #27 in Systems & Planning
- #56 in Artificial Intelligence & Semantics
- #99 in Computers & Technology Industry
About the authors

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Joshua Gans is a professor of strategic management and the Jeffrey S. Skoll Chair of Technical Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto (with a cross appointment in the Department of Economics). From 2013 to 2019, he was area coordinator of strategic management. Prior to 2011, he was the foundation professor of management (information economics) at the Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne. Prior to that he was at the University of New South Wales School of Economics. In 2011, Joshua was a visiting researcher at Microsoft Research (New England). Joshua has a PhD from Stanford University and an honors degree in economics from the University of Queensland. In 2012, Joshua was appointed as a research associate of the NBER in the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program.
At Rotman, he teaches entrepreneurial strategy to MBA and commerce students. He has also co-authored (with Stephen King, Robin Stonecash, and Martin Byford) the Australasian edition of Greg Mankiw’s Principles of Economics (published by Cengage); Core Economics for Managers (Cengage); Finishing the Job (MUP); Parentonomics (MIT Press); Information Wants to be Shared (Harvard Business Review Press); The Disruption Dilemma (MIT Press); Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence (Harvard Business Review Press); Scholarly Publishing and its Discontents; and Innovation + Equality (MIT Press). Most recently he is the author of The Pandemic Information Gap: The Brutal Economics of COVID-19 (MIT Press, 2020) and The Pandemic Information Solution: Overcoming the Brutal Economics of Covid-19 (Endeavour, 2020).
Joshua has developed specialties in the nature of technological competition and innovation, economic growth, publishing economics, industrial organization, and regulatory economics. This research has culminated in publications in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the RAND Journal of Economics, the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the Journal of Public Economics, and the Journal of Regulatory Economics. Joshua serves as department editor of Management Science and associate editor at the Journal of Industrial Economics. He is on the editorial boards of Games and Economic Analysis and Policy. In 2007, Joshua was awarded the Economic Society of Australia’s Young Economist Award. In 2008, Joshua was elected as a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, Australia. He has also written for the Financial Times, the Sloan Management Review, and more than two hundred opinion pieces published in other outlets.

Avi Goldfarb is the Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare and Professor of Marketing at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. Avi is also Chief Data Scientist at the Creative Destruction Lab, Senior Editor at Marketing Science, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Avi’s research focuses on the opportunities and challenges of the digital economy. This work has been discussed in White House reports, Congressional testimony, European Commission documents, the Economist, the Globe and Mail, National Public Radio, the Atlantic, the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere. He holds a PhD in economics of Northwestern University.



























