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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Hardcover – Deckle Edge, February 19, 2008

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Why do smart people make irrational decisions every day? The answers will surprise you. Predictably Irrational is an intriguing, witty and utterly original look at why we all make illogical decisions. Why can a 50p aspirin do what a 5p aspirin can't? If an item is "free" it must be a bargain, right? Why is everything relative, even when it shouldn't be? How do our expectations influence our actual opinions and decisions? In this astounding book, behavioural economist Dan Ariely cuts to the heart of our strange behaviour, demonstrating how irrationality often supplants rational thought and that the reason for this is embedded in the very structure of our minds. Predicatably Irrational brilliantly blends everyday experiences with a series of illuminating and often surprising experiments, that will change your understanding of human behaviour. And, by recognising these patterns, Ariely shows that we can make better decisions in business, in matters of collective welfare, and in our everyday lives from drinking coffee to losing weight, buying a car to choosing a romantic partner.

Print length

294 pages
Language

English
Publisher

HarperCollins
Publication date

February 19, 2008
Dimensions

6.5 x 1.25 x 9.25 inches
ISBN-10

006135323X
ISBN-13

978-0061353239
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That's a lesson we can all learn: the more we have, the more we want. And the only cure is to break the cycle of relativity.
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With everything you do, in fact, you should train yourself to question your repeated behaviors.
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The second quirk is that we focus on what we may lose, rather than what we may gain.
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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Irrational behavior is a part of human nature, but as MIT professor Ariely has discovered in 20 years of researching behavioral economics, people tend to behave irrationally in a predictable fashion. Drawing on psychology and economics, behavioral economics can show us why cautious people make poor decisions about sex when aroused, why patients get greater relief from a more expensive drug over its cheaper counterpart and why honest people may steal office supplies or communal food, but not money. According to Ariely, our understanding of economics, now based on the assumption of a rational subject, should, in fact, be based on our systematic, unsurprising irrationality. Ariely argues that greater understanding of previously ignored or misunderstood forces (emotions, relativity and social norms) that influence our economic behavior brings a variety of opportunities for reexamining individual motivation and consumer choice, as well as economic and educational policy. Ariely's intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read. (Feb.)
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"Surprisingly entertaining. . . . Easy to read. . . . Ariely's book makes economics and the strange happenings of the human mind fun." (USA Today)

"A marvelous book that is both thought provoking and highly entertaining, ranging from the power of placebos to the pleasures of Pepsi. Ariely unmasks the subtle but powerful tricks that our minds play on us, and shows us how we can prevent being fooled." (Jerome Groopman, New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think)

"PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a charmer-filled with clever experiments, engaging ideas, and delightful anecdotes. Dan Ariely is a wise and amusing guide to the foibles, errors, and bloopers of everyday decision-making." (Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University and author of Stumbling on Happiness)

"Dan Ariely's ingenious experiments explore deeply how our economic behavior is influenced by irrational forces and social norms. In a charmingly informal style that makes it accessible to a wide audience, PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL provides a standing criticism to the explanatory power of rational egotistic choice." (Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize in Economics 1972, Professor of Economics Stanford University)

"Inventive. . . . An accessible account. . . . Ariely is a more than capable storyteller . . . If only more researchers could write like this, the world would be a better place." (Financial Times)

"In creative ways, author Dan Ariely puts rationality to the test. . . . New experiments and optimistic ideas tumble out of him, like water from a fountain." (Boston Globe)

"Dan Ariely is a genius at understanding human behavior: no economist does a better job of uncovering and explaining the hidden reasons for the weird ways we act, in the marketplace and out. PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL will reshape the way you see the world, and yourself, for good." (James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds)

"PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a scientific but imminently readable and decidedly insightful look into why we do what we do every day...and why, even though we 'know better,' we may never change." (Wenda Harris Millard, President, Media, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia)

"A fascinating romp through the science of decision-making that unmasks the ways that emotions, social norms, expectations, and context lead us astray." (Time magazine)

"This is a wonderful, eye-opening book. Deep, readable, and providing refreshing evidence that there are domains and situations in which material incentives work in unexpected ways. We humans are humans, with qualities that can be destroyed by the introduction of economic gains. A must read!" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)

"After reading this book, you will understand the decisions you make in an entirely new way." (Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT's Media Lab and founder and chairman of the One Laptop per Child non-profit association)

"Ariely's intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read." (Publishers Weekly)

"The most difficult part of investing is managing your emotions. Dan explains why that is so challenging for all of us, and how recognizing your built-in biases can help you avoid common mistakes." (Charles Schwab, Chairman and CEO, The Charles Schwab Corporation)

"Predictably Irrational is an important book. Full of valuable and entertaining insights that will make an impact on your business, professional, and personal life." (Jack M Greenberg, Chairman, Western Union Company, Retired Chairman and CEO, McDonald's Corporation)

"Predictably Irrational is clever, playful,humorous, hard hitting, insightful, and consistently fun and exciting to read." (Paul Slovic, Founder and President, Decision Research)

"Freakonomics held that people respond to incentives, perhaps in undesirable ways, but always rationally. Dan Ariely shows you how people are deeply irrational, and predictably so." (Chip Heath, Co-Author, Made to Stick, Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business)

"Sly and lucid. . . . Predictably Irrational is a far more revolutionary book than its unthreatening manner lets on." (New York Times Book Review)

"Ariely's book addresses some weighty issues . . . with an unexpected dash of humor." (Entertainment Weekly)

"A delightfully brilliant guide to our irrationality-and how to overcome it-in the marketplace and everyplace." (Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm and Dealing with Darwin)

"A taxonomy of financial folly." (The New Yorker)

"PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is wildly original. It shows why-much more often than we usually care to admit-humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser." (George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001 Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley)

"An entertaining tour of the many ways people act against their best interests, drawing on Ariely's own ingeniously designed experiments. . . . Personal and accessible." (BusinessWeek)

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ HarperCollins; 1st edition (February 19, 2008)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 294 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 006135323X
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0061353239
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.24 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.5 x 1.25 x 9.25 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #410,725 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #387 in Marketing & Consumer Behavior
- #607 in Medical Cognitive Psychology
- #1,059 in Cognitive Psychology (Books)

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Dan Ariely

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Officially, I am the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology & Behavioral Economics at Duke University.

I founded the Center for Advanced Hindsight, wrote a few books, took part in a few media project and startups.

I co-created of the film documentary (Dis)Honesty: The Truth About Lies, and I wrote three-time New York Times bestsellers: Predictably Irrational, The Upside of irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty. I also wrote a few books that did not make it to the New York Times bestsellers list: Irrationally Yours, Payoff, Amazing Decisions and Dollars and Sense.

My new book, MISBELIEF: WHAT MAKES RATIONAL PEOPLE BELIEVE IRRATIONAL THINGS began with my own experience being the target of conspiracy theories, but quickly became about a phenomenon that affects all of us. I will use the term misbelief to describe the phenomenon we’re exploring. Misbelief is a distorted lens through which people begin to view the world, reason about the world, and then describe the world to others.

I derive a lot of satisfaction from seeing my work take shape in the real life and I take part in a few companies / startups. Among them are: Lemonade, Shapa, Irrational Capital, BEWorks, Epilog, Timeful, and Irrational Labs.

I am also part of a team that is working on an NBC TV series that is loosely based on my life and will premiere on NBC in the fall of 2023. The show is called “The Irrational” and officially it is based on my first book, Predictably Irrational.

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Minutemen

Brilliantly Irrational!

Reviewed in the United States on March 3, 2013

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I have not written any product reviews on Amazon, but I was forced into writing one because of my sincere admiration and new-found respect for Prof. Dan Ariely. I was introduced to the science of Behavioral Economics and the irrational decisions people make in their lives. The author, through his experiments, has an uncanny knack of explaining all the profound concepts in a simple and entertaining manner. The contents in this book will quite literally open your eyes and make you wonder how people are living in this so-called idealistic world of rational decision making. Some of the key ideas presented in this book are:

-> How humans perceive value - "not in absolute terms, but one with respect to another," and this is how companies and marketers deceive people with "seemingly attractive" offers that you cannot resist.
-> Market forces of supply and demand only apply to rational people - in the real world, companies exploit people's irrationality and influence prices and demand.
-> The power of FREE - People are, in essence, losing some other resource in trying to procure FREE items.
-> The wonderful distinction of market and social norms, and why and how they cannot coexist. He also explains how companies can motivate their employees using social benefits, which are cheaper and stronger than financial incentives.
-> As long as money is not involved, we are caring social animals.
-> Why people exhibit different behaviors when they are "normal" (cold state) and when they are "aroused" (hot state). Learning to bridge the gap between the two extreme states is very important and will help you avoid making errors or bad decisions that you will forever regret.
-> The high price of ownership reveals three irrational quirks in human behavior - we are deeply attached to what we have; we often focus on what we may lose (also called Loss Aversion); we assume other people (or buyers of our goods) to also value the goods in the same manner as we do.
-> People's expectations can cloud their thinking, and they use this as a marketing strategy to influence their friends' tastes and preferences.
-> Price is so powerful that it can drive the Placebo Effect - the more the price, the more the utility you derive from the product. This phenomenon was explained with Aspirin - why a 50 cent Aspirin can do what a penny Aspirin can't.
-> Trust is an important public resource and a necessary lubricant of the economy. A few bad players in the market can completely erode it.
-> Why even the most morally upright person can be susceptible to making small crimes that hardly matter. However, a contemplation of moral behavior or a religious code of law before doing any action can greatly reduce the likelihood of people committing these petty crimes.
-> The idea of FREE LUNCHES in behavior economics; the science of economics should be modified to account for how people actually behave instead of how they should behave in society.

These are just some of the important principles explained in the book through experiments and startling revelations. It is easy to read and highly entertaining. However, there is one minor flaw in this book - the concepts and results described are all based on experiments performed on American college students or the western society, which may not be applicable to the more conservative societies in the world.

BOTTOM LINE - Predictably Irrational is a wonderful book with new insights into irrational behavior in people. But for the one criticism, I believe this can change the way people think about economics, and can result in newer norms that account for our actual and not ideal behavior.

PS: For people interested in reading more about behavior and cognitive sciences, I have the following book suggestions:
1. "The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business" by Charles Duhigg.
2. "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahnem.
3. "The Upside of Irrationality" by Dan Ariely.
4. "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't" by Nate Silver

24 people found this helpful

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Stephen Brocks

Interesting and Insightful

Reviewed in the United States on February 23, 2024

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A good, steady read into why we do what we do. At times I feel the author over discusses their point.

Reviewed in the United States on February 27, 2010

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"Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions" by Ariely Ariely (PI), was an interesting read, and deserves to be looked at by economist, psychologist, marketer, or just people looking to improve their selves alike. It follows the trend, set by Freakonomics, by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, in discussion of esoteric economic concepts, but without the academese that tends to keep casual readers away. I found myself personally engrossed while reading this novel due to the parallels of irrational behavior I discovered I also exhibited and will be actively correcting. The following three I believe have sentimental value to me and I feel are genuinely worth discussing.

Zero cost irrationality as described by PI is the concept that reviews the large bias humans show towards "free." I put free in quotations as I am using the term loosely in this context as often the decision chosen is not without cost, and in relative terms, it is often not the option that held the most value per unit of the exchanging intermediary item. In fact, just a few hours before writing this brief review, I purchased three Publix cloth shopping bags that I had no intention of purchasing beforehand, but because they were buy three get one free. I can say in earnest, without that free offer, I would have completely shrugged off the Publix bag, to purchase at another time. A potential solution to this problem, derived from a specific example he mentions within the chapter, is to mentally give the "free" item a price, even one as low as one penny. This, surprisingly, nullifies the zero cost irrationality for most individuals, allowing for proper cost-benefit analysis of the additional item or offer.

Procrastination, or the giving up of long-term goals for immediate gratification, this desire for immediate satisfaction permeates particularly strongly throughout American culture. The effect of this national procrastination can be seen by abhorrently low national saving rate, or more implicitly or healthcare system that is more reactive than proactive. Though I personally am not a pure procrastinator, in fact many would consider me an extrovert, I believe that there quite a bit I still put off that I do so exactly because I fail to properly evaluate the opportunity cost of the long term benefit of said action. For example, I did a quick back of an envelope calculation of me putting of my savings to next year, rather than not starting when I begun work two years ago. This three wait has cost me over half a million dollars (Assumptions: Roth IRA, with locked six percent APR, maturing in fifty years). I have begun taking Ariely's advice, and setting hard deadlines for many things, such as this particular book review which I gave myself exactly the day after completing the book to complete, no exceptions and no excuses.

The final personal irrationality I've found plaguing my decision making has been that of `keeping doors open,' or not being able to stand the idea of closing our alternative options. My irrational in my context, has to do with maybe not a plethora of options, as emphasized within the book, but rather when I am down to two options that have to deal with something within the social sphere. Case in point, I would fret over the decision of whether I should continue to chase after a girl or letting her go, or going to a party where I would probably feel uncomfortable or not, though these examples may seem simple to an someone else, I struggled with these decisions constantly. Often than not, I found myself unable to take the choice that errs on the side of negative (deciding to stay home, or leave the girl alone) as I felt doing so eliminates a multitude of options without producing any new ones of benefit. I am curious to whether how much confidence has to do with the exact experiment presented within the book. I speculate if participants were required to self select as confident, or perhaps anchored to think of confidence, if such decisions become easier. I wonder this, since many my such decision-making gridlocks underlie a lack of self confidence, perhaps those with more of it at the time of the test may change results. In sum, Ariely's solution, as I interpret it, the cure for procrastination is really premised by self-confidence, where one sets long term goals and bravely commits to them.

The book discussed around 14 irrationalities in total across 13 chapters, each holding a slight new scope of human cognizance to gain. The three above mentioned irrationalities after a deep introspective look, I felt held the most personal utility. I genuinely I have a new lens to the world. I genuinely believe that holds the potential to enrich the perspective of most readers as well, no matter their relative amount of academic background on the subject.

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William Smalley

Excellent

Reviewed in the United States on March 27, 2024

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Predictably Irrational is a fascinating work that examines how human beings can be much more irrational than we would have thought. The author uses many excellent experiments and examples to illustrate his points. An eye opening read that will make you more aware of the situations where irrationality can take control.

Reviewed in the United States on March 1, 2024

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I love behavioral economics and I put his books right up there with Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thayler in terms of my favorites.

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Nicole C.

Good for if your an over thinker

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 30, 2023

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This book answered some really random questions I thought people didn’t think about and is very entertaining for long journeys. Its also insightful and well thought out. I would recommend

Rajeev Kumar

Dan's attempt to find ray of light in Den of grey matter of human mind

Reviewed in India on December 2, 2022

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Amazing book , must read for those who are interested in knowing " Why" element of what we do. I found this book while I was searching for literature on neural marketing, a concept which I got introduce recently during my studies on marketing behavior. Application of these concept of customer behaviour , choice , bias , Morality of "Freebies" and human nature's compulsive need of cheating!!!! are not only have economic use but also softer aspect of self improvement. Thanks Dan for sharing your story which was really heart warming. Regards from Rajeev.

4 people found this helpful

Karina

this book will change your worldview :)

Reviewed in France on February 13, 2022

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Another awesome read. An eye opener into the behavior of humans and how social norms work their magic on our decision making process.

Javier.

Excelente obra de economía del comportamiento.

Reviewed in Mexico on August 2, 2020

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Una obra fundamental de uno de los mejores exponentes de la economía del comportamiento. Señala de manera clara y con varios ejemplos la manera en que los seres humanos se comportan en sus relaciones sociales y económicas, y por qué no es conveniente mezclar estas relaciones entre sí.

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Cliente Kindle

Sensacional

Reviewed in Brazil on July 17, 2020

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Livro que abre a mente, que faz pensar e nos mostra a realidade com outros olhos. A escrita é genial, divertida e altamente instigante! Vou ler outros do autor.

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