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Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Paperback – Illustrated, April 27, 2010
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Why do our headaches persist after we take a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a fifty-cent aspirin? Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup?
When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we?
In this newly revised and expanded edition of the groundbreaking New York Times bestseller, Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, we consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational.
- Print length384 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- Publication dateApril 27, 2010
- Reading age18 years and up
- Dimensions5.31 x 0.86 x 8 inches
- ISBN-109780061353246
- ISBN-13978-0061353246
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Editorial Reviews
Review
“This is a wonderful, eye-opening book. Deep, readable, and providing refreshing evidence that there are domains and situations in which material incentives work in unexpected ways. We humans are humans, with qualities that can be destroyed by the introduction of economic gains. A must read!” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
“An entertaining look at human foibles.” — New York Times
“Sly and lucid. . . . Predictably Irrational is a far more revolutionary book than its unthreatening manner lets on.” — New York Times Book Review
“Surprisingly entertaining. . . . Easy to read. . . . Ariely’s book makes economics and the strange happenings of the human mind fun.” — USA Today
“A fascinating romp through the science of decision-making that unmasks the ways that emotions, social norms, expectations, and context lead us astray.” — Time magazine
“In creative ways, author Dan Ariely puts rationality to the test. . . . New experiments and optimistic ideas tumble out of him, like water from a fountain.” — Boston Globe
“An entertaining tour of the many ways people act against their best interests, drawing on Ariely’s own ingeniously designed experiments. . . . Personal and accessible.” — BusinessWeek
“Ariely’s book addresses some weighty issues . . . with an unexpected dash of humor.” — Entertainment Weekly
“A spry treatise on how the world works and how we spend our money based on other people’s rules. . . . Ariely has a brilliant solution to a problem that is very real . . . Make a point of seeing this book. That way you’ll know you want it, and you will.” — Kirkus Reviews (starred)
“Inventive. . . . An accessible account. . . . Ariely is a more than capable storyteller . . . If only more researchers could write like this, the world would be a better place.” — Financial Times
“Ariely’s intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read.” — Publishers Weekly
“A taxonomy of financial folly.” — The New Yorker
“Smart.” — Slate
“A marvelous book that is both thought provoking and highly entertaining, ranging from the power of placebos to the pleasures of Pepsi. Ariely unmasks the subtle but powerful tricks that our minds play on us, and shows us how we can prevent being fooled.” — Jerome Groopman, New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think
“Dan Ariely is a genius at understanding human behavior: no economist does a better job of uncovering and explaining the hidden reasons for the weird ways we act, in the marketplace and out. PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL will reshape the way you see the world, and yourself, for good.” — James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds
“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a charmer-filled with clever experiments, engaging ideas, and delightful anecdotes. Dan Ariely is a wise and amusing guide to the foibles, errors, and bloopers of everyday decision-making.” — Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University and author of Stumbling on Happiness
“The most difficult part of investing is managing your emotions. Dan explains why that is so challenging for all of us, and how recognizing your built-in biases can help you avoid common mistakes.” — Charles Schwab, Chairman and CEO, The Charles Schwab Corporation
“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is wildly original. It shows why—much more often than we usually care to admit—humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser.” — George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001 Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley
“Dan Ariely’s ingenious experiments explore deeply how our economic behavior is influenced by irrational forces and social norms. In a charmingly informal style that makes it accessible to a wide audience, PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL provides a standing criticism to the explanatory power of rational egotistic choice.” — Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize in Economics 1972, Professor of Economics Stanford University
“A delightfully brilliant guide to our irrationality—and how to overcome it—in the marketplace and everyplace.” — Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm and Dealing with Darwin
“After reading this book, you will understand the decisions you make in an entirely new way.” — Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT's Media Lab and founder and chairman of the One Laptop per Child non-profit association
“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a scientific but imminently readable and decidedly insightful look into why we do what we do every day...and why, even though we ‘know better,’ we may never change.” — Wenda Harris Millard, President, Media, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia
“Predictably Irrational is an important book. Full of valuable and entertaining insights that will make an impact on your business, professional, and personal life.” — Jack M Greenberg, Chairman, Western Union Company, Retired Chairman and CEO, McDonald's Corporation
“Predictably Irrational is clever, playful,humorous, hard hitting, insightful, and consistently fun and exciting to read.” — Paul Slovic, Founder and President, Decision Research
“Freakonomics held that people respond to incentives, perhaps in undesirable ways, but always rationally. Dan Ariely shows you how people are deeply irrational, and predictably so.” — Chip Heath, Co-Author, Made to Stick, Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business
From the Back Cover
Why do our headaches persist after we take a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a fifty-cent aspirin?
Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup?
When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we?
In this newly revised and expanded edition of the groundbreaking New York Times bestseller, Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, we consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational.
About the Author
Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University. He is a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight; a cocreator of the film documentary (Dis)Honesty: The Truth About Lies; and a three-time New York Times bestselling author. His books include Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Irrationally Yours, Payoff, Dollars and Sense, and Amazing Decisions. His TED Talks have been viewed more than 27 million times. His work has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, and elsewhere. He lives in North Carolina with his family.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition
By Dan ArielyHarperCollins Publishers
Copyright © 2010 Dan ArielyAll rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-06-135324-6
C H A P T E R 1
The Truth about Relativity
Why Everything Is Relative—Even
When It Shouldn't Be
One day while browsing the World Wide Web (obviously
for work—not just wasting time), I stumbled on the fol-
lowing ad, on the Web site of a magazine, the Economist.
predictably irrational
2
I read these offers one at a time. The fi rst offer—the Inter-
net subscription for $59—seemed reasonable. The second
option—the $125 print subscription—seemed a bit expen-
sive, but still reasonable.
But then I read the third option: a print and Internet sub-
scription for $125. I read it twice before my eye ran back to the
previous options. Who would want to buy the print option
alone, I wondered, when both the Internet and the print sub-
scriptions were offered for the same price? Now, the print- only
option may have been a typographical error, but I suspect that
the clever people at the Economist's London offi ces (and they
are clever—and quite mischievous in a British sort of way) were
actually manipulating me. I am pretty certain that they wanted
me to skip the Internet- only option (which they assumed would
be my choice, since I was reading the advertisement on the Web)
and jump to the more expensive option: Internet and print.
But how could they manipulate me? I suspect it's because
the Economist's marketing wizards (and I could just picture
them in their school ties and blazers) knew something impor-
tant about human behavior: humans rarely choose things in
absolute terms. We don't have an internal value meter that
tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus on the
relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate
value accordingly. (For instance, we don't know how much a
six- cylinder car is worth, but we can assume it's more expen-
sive than the four- cylinder model.)
In the case of the Economist, I may not have known whether
the Internet- only subscription at $59 was a better deal than the
print- only option at $125. But I certainly knew that the print-
and- Internet option for $125 was better than the print- only
option at $125. In fact, you could reasonably deduce that in
the combination package, the Internet subscription is free! “It's
the truth about relativity
3
a bloody steal—go for it, governor!” I could almost hear them
shout from the riverbanks of the Thames. And I have to admit,
if I had been inclined to subscribe I probably would have taken
the package deal myself. (Later, when I tested the offer on a
large number of participants, the vast majority preferred the
Internet- and- print deal.)
So what was going on here? Let me start with a funda-
mental observation: most people don't know what they want
unless they see it in context. We don't know what kind of
racing bike we want—until we see a champ in the Tour de
France ratcheting the gears on a par tic u lar model. We don't
know what kind of speaker system we like—until we hear a
set of speakers that sounds better than the previous one. We
don't even know what we want to do with our lives—until
we fi nd a relative or a friend who is doing just what we think
we should be doing. Everything is relative, and that's the
point. Like an airplane pi lot landing in the dark, we want
runway lights on either side of us, guiding us to the place
where we can touch down our wheels.
In the case of the Economist, the decision between the Internet-
only and print- only options would take a bit of thinking. Think-
ing is diffi cult and sometimes unpleasant. So the Economist's
marketers offered us a no- brainer: relative to the print-only op-
tion, the print- and- Internet option looks clearly superior.
The geniuses at the Economist aren't the only ones who un-
derstand the importance of relativity. Take Sam, the tele vi sion
salesman. He plays the same general type of trick on us when
he decides which tele vi sions to put together on display:
36-inch Panasonic for $690
42- inch Toshiba for $850
50-inch Philips for $1,480
predictably irrational
4
Which one would you choose? In this case, Sam knows
that customers fi nd it diffi cult to compute the value of differ-
ent options. (Who really knows if the Panasonic at $690 is a
better deal than the Philips at $1,480?) But Sam also knows
that given three choices, most people will take the middle
choice (as in landing your plane between the runway lights).
So guess which tele vi sion Sam prices as the middle option?
That's right—the one he wants to sell!
Of course, Sam is not alone in his cleverness. The New
York Times ran a story recently about Gregg Rapp, a restau-
rant con sul tant, who gets paid to work out the pricing for
menus. He knows, for instance, how lamb sold this year as
opposed to last year; whether lamb did better paired with
squash or with risotto; and whether orders decreased when
the price of the main course was hiked from $39 to $41.
One thing Rapp has learned is that high- priced entrées on
the menu boost revenue for the restaurant—even if no one
buys them. Why? Because even though people generally won't
buy the most expensive dish on the menu, they will order the
second most expensive dish. Thus, by creating an expensive
dish, a restaurateur can lure customers into ordering the sec-
ond most expensive choice (which can be cleverly engineered
to deliver a higher profi t margin).1
So let's run through the Economist's sleight of hand in
slow motion.
As you recall, the choices were:
1.
(Continues...)Excerpted from Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition by Dan Ariely. Copyright © 2010 Dan Ariely. Excerpted by permission of HarperCollins Publishers.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.
Product details
- ASIN : 0061353248
- Publisher : Harper Perennial; Expanded edition (April 27, 2010)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 384 pages
- ISBN-10 : 9780061353246
- ISBN-13 : 978-0061353246
- Reading age : 18 years and up
- Item Weight : 2.31 pounds
- Dimensions : 5.31 x 0.86 x 8 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #13,407 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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MCM Reviews

About the author

Officially, I am the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology & Behavioral Economics at Duke University.
I founded the Center for Advanced Hindsight, wrote a few books, took part in a few media project and startups.
I co-created of the film documentary (Dis)Honesty: The Truth About Lies, and I wrote three-time New York Times bestsellers: Predictably Irrational, The Upside of irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty. I also wrote a few books that did not make it to the New York Times bestsellers list: Irrationally Yours, Payoff, Amazing Decisions and Dollars and Sense.
My new book, MISBELIEF: WHAT MAKES RATIONAL PEOPLE BELIEVE IRRATIONAL THINGS began with my own experience being the target of conspiracy theories, but quickly became about a phenomenon that affects all of us. I will use the term misbelief to describe the phenomenon we’re exploring. Misbelief is a distorted lens through which people begin to view the world, reason about the world, and then describe the world to others.
I derive a lot of satisfaction from seeing my work take shape in the real life and I take part in a few companies / startups. Among them are: Lemonade, Shapa, Irrational Capital, BEWorks, Epilog, Timeful, and Irrational Labs.
I am also part of a team that is working on an NBC TV series that is loosely based on my life and will premiere on NBC in the fall of 2023. The show is called “The Irrational” and officially it is based on my first book, Predictably Irrational.
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Learn more how customers reviews work on AmazonCustomers say
Customers find the book fascinating, well-written, and worth reading. They also find the insights remarkable, educational, and delightful nuggets of truth about themselves. Readers describe the author as witty and charming.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
Customers find the book fascinating, well-written, and entertaining. They say it's a great read for business men and women. Readers also mention the show is very good.
"...Forces That Shape Our Decisions" by Ariely Ariely (PI), was an interesting read, and deserves to be looked at by economist, psychologist, marketer,..." Read more
"...Still, they were fun to read, and I will probably try some of them on my friends.=== The Not So Good Stuff ===*..." Read more
"...The show is very good." Read more
"...BOTTOM LINE - Predictably Irrational is a wonderful book with new insights into irrational behavior in people...." Read more
Customers find the book insightful, easy to read, and full of personal anecdotes. They appreciate the relevant examples that make the teachings very understandable. Readers say the lessons the book teaches are worth learning. They also mention the conclusions are fairly interesting. Overall, they say the author does a fantastic job explaining his theories and providing numerous scientific and social insights.
"...The experiments are clever and "fun", although I doubt they would stand up to serious scientific scrutiny...." Read more
"Awsome work, the experiments were so revealing.Love bahaviour economics after going though this book. Looking forward to more..." Read more
"...I recommend this book to everyone. It is such an insight into our lives, exploring why we act the way we act instead of rationally...." Read more
"...uses a variety of experiments that he oversaw and explains some very surprising results and also talks about some real world examples...." Read more
Customers find the humor interesting, witty, and charming. They say the author has an engaging style and makes his ideas accessible. Readers also mention the book is written in a conversational tone that many audiences will understand.
"...uncanny knack of explaining all the profound concepts in a simple and entertaining manner...." Read more
"...you think about your day to day decisions and it is written were many audiences will understand. 5 stars!" Read more
"...the last book I read by Ariely, "Predictably Irrational" has a lot of humorous anecdotes and plenty of insightful wisdom...." Read more
"...The author's writing style (which is very humorous and easy to read)..." Read more
Customers have mixed opinions about the value for money of the book. Some mention it has insights to apply for pricing strategies, while others say it's a waste of time and money.
"...I'd recommend the book, with the caveat that the book has some flaws. Still, the positives outweigh the negatives." Read more
"...This, surprisingly, nullifies the zero cost irrationality for most individuals, allowing for proper cost-benefit analysis of the additional item or..." Read more
"This is an intellectually lazy book that buries a few mildly interesing studies under endless anecdotes, opinion and speculation...." Read more
"...this book is that people frequently make decisions that are not economically rational...." Read more
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Top reviews from the United States
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Zero cost irrationality as described by PI is the concept that reviews the large bias humans show towards "free." I put free in quotations as I am using the term loosely in this context as often the decision chosen is not without cost, and in relative terms, it is often not the option that held the most value per unit of the exchanging intermediary item. In fact, just a few hours before writing this brief review, I purchased three Publix cloth shopping bags that I had no intention of purchasing beforehand, but because they were buy three get one free. I can say in earnest, without that free offer, I would have completely shrugged off the Publix bag, to purchase at another time. A potential solution to this problem, derived from a specific example he mentions within the chapter, is to mentally give the "free" item a price, even one as low as one penny. This, surprisingly, nullifies the zero cost irrationality for most individuals, allowing for proper cost-benefit analysis of the additional item or offer.
Procrastination, or the giving up of long-term goals for immediate gratification, this desire for immediate satisfaction permeates particularly strongly throughout American culture. The effect of this national procrastination can be seen by abhorrently low national saving rate, or more implicitly or healthcare system that is more reactive than proactive. Though I personally am not a pure procrastinator, in fact many would consider me an extrovert, I believe that there quite a bit I still put off that I do so exactly because I fail to properly evaluate the opportunity cost of the long term benefit of said action. For example, I did a quick back of an envelope calculation of me putting of my savings to next year, rather than not starting when I begun work two years ago. This three wait has cost me over half a million dollars (Assumptions: Roth IRA, with locked six percent APR, maturing in fifty years). I have begun taking Ariely's advice, and setting hard deadlines for many things, such as this particular book review which I gave myself exactly the day after completing the book to complete, no exceptions and no excuses.
The final personal irrationality I've found plaguing my decision making has been that of `keeping doors open,' or not being able to stand the idea of closing our alternative options. My irrational in my context, has to do with maybe not a plethora of options, as emphasized within the book, but rather when I am down to two options that have to deal with something within the social sphere. Case in point, I would fret over the decision of whether I should continue to chase after a girl or letting her go, or going to a party where I would probably feel uncomfortable or not, though these examples may seem simple to an someone else, I struggled with these decisions constantly. Often than not, I found myself unable to take the choice that errs on the side of negative (deciding to stay home, or leave the girl alone) as I felt doing so eliminates a multitude of options without producing any new ones of benefit. I am curious to whether how much confidence has to do with the exact experiment presented within the book. I speculate if participants were required to self select as confident, or perhaps anchored to think of confidence, if such decisions become easier. I wonder this, since many my such decision-making gridlocks underlie a lack of self confidence, perhaps those with more of it at the time of the test may change results. In sum, Ariely's solution, as I interpret it, the cure for procrastination is really premised by self-confidence, where one sets long term goals and bravely commits to them.
The book discussed around 14 irrationalities in total across 13 chapters, each holding a slight new scope of human cognizance to gain. The three above mentioned irrationalities after a deep introspective look, I felt held the most personal utility. I genuinely I have a new lens to the world. I genuinely believe that holds the potential to enrich the perspective of most readers as well, no matter their relative amount of academic background on the subject.
=== The Good Stuff ===
* The book is really an overview of behavioral economics- the study of how supposedly rational people make decisions. Ariely recounts numerous experiments in which people are given a challenge and react in ways which would seem to be exactly opposite of their self-interest. As an example, if you allow people the chance to buy $1 chocolate bars for 10 cents, they will purchase quite a few. But if you offer then 90 cent chocolates for free, they will only take one or two. If experiments like this interest you, you will enjoy the book.
* In each case, Ariely describes a simple experiment, and provides a theory as to what he thinks happened. I have no idea how many of his theories are considered valid, or would stand up to peer review. But for a quick read to just amuse yourself with human nature, the explanations suffice.
* Ariely picks a nice assortment of topics-everything from placebos to "irrational" pricing and honestly and ethics. The experiments are clever and "fun", although I doubt they would stand up to serious scientific scrutiny. Still, they were fun to read, and I will probably try some of them on my friends.
=== The Not So Good Stuff ===
* While Ariely writes well, he is not the most engaging author you will read. The text comes across a little dry, and by the final chapters, I was ready for the book to end.
* While the experiments, or at least their explanations were no doubt simplified for the book, in some cases they open more questions than they answer. Ariely offers one explanation and theory for the observed results, but makes no attempts to analyze deeper, or provide alternative explanations.
* Without seeing more information, it is hard to tell if the experiments and their conclusions are statistically valid. In some cases it seems that they might not be, although given Ariely's background, it would seem he would know enough to assure the experiments validity.
* Finally, there is no real theme or common thread through the work. Rather it is more like a series of short lab reports. The result is that the book can become tedious, and that it is tough to remember some of the results, as all the stories blur together.
===Summary===
While there were some problems, I did enjoy the book, and found the material fascinating. Some of the experiments product results that were quite unexpected, and with a little thinking you can use some of this information into whatever your business or trade you operate in.
I'd recommend the book, with the caveat that the book has some flaws. Still, the positives outweigh the negatives.
Love bahaviour economics after going though this book. Looking forward to more..
.
Top reviews from other countries
Très bon état.




























