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Predicting the Next President 2016th Edition

by Allan Lichtman (Author)

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In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

ISBN-10

1442269200
ISBN-13

978-1442269200
Edition

2016th
Publication date

May 13, 2016
Language

English
Dimensions

6.25 x 0.75 x 9.25 inches
Print length

240 pages
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods.” ― Publishers Weekly

"Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House." ― Roll Call

"An important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does." -- Charlie Cook, editor, The Cook Political Report, political analyst, National Journal and NBC News

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for national networks and newspapers. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement.

He has published more than one hundred scholarly and popular articles that have appeared in such
journals and newspapers as the American Historical Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, New Republic, Washington Monthly, New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and Los Angeles Times.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group; 2016th edition (May 13, 2016)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1442269200
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1442269200
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12.8 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.25 x 0.75 x 9.25 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #1,982,770 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,137 in Government
- #1,953 in Elections
- #2,077 in United States Executive Government

Customer Reviews:
4.5 44 ratings

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Allan J. Lichtman

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Allan J. Lichtman received his PhD from Harvard University in 1973 and is currently

Distinguished Professor of History at American University in Washington, D.C. He specializes

in American political history and the presidency. Dr. Lichtman has authored or co-authored nine

books, and hundreds of scholarly and popular articles. His latest book is The Case for

Impeachment (Dey Street books, 2017), was an independent book store best seller, an

Amazon.com bestseller in several academic categories, and a Newsweek, best new book release.

Dr. Lichtman’s book FDR and the Jews (Harvard, 2013, with Richard Breitman), won

the National Jewish Book Award in American Jewish History. It was a 2013 New York Times

editor’s choice, and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize in History. His book, White

Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement (Grove/Atlantic 2008), was

a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in non-fiction. The Teaching Company

produced his video lectures on Great Presidents as part of their “Great Courses” series.

Dr. Lichtman is the co-developer of the Keys system that has successfully predicted the

outcome of every presidential election since 1984. In September 2016, he defied the

conventional wisdom to predict the election of Donald Trump. In early 2016, Rowman &

Littlefield published the sixth edition of his Keys book series, Predicting the Next President: The

Keys to the White House 2016.

Dr. Lichtman has lectured extensively in the United States and abroad. He has provided

commentary for all major television and radio outlets and is regularly quoted by leading

newspapers and magazines worldwide. He has served as an expert witness in more than 90

federal civil rights cases, including recent landmark cases challenging restrictive voting laws in

North Carolina and Texas. As an expert for the U. S. Commission on Civil Rights Dr. Lichtman

discovered that the outcome of the 2000 presidential election turned on the vast disparity in rates

at which officials rejected ballots cast by blacks and whites in Florida. Dr. Lichtman received the

American University Scholar/Teacher of the year award for 1992-3, the University’s highest

academic honor.

Customer reviews

4.5 out of 5

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John

A very interesting analysis on how presidential elections are really won

Reviewed in the United States on October 19, 2016

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For me, the most fascinating conclusion of prof. Lichtman’s research is that the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on campaigns, advertisement, consultants, and polls is just wasted money. I really want to believe that his conclusion is correct because campaigning has now become a joke. It is a shame that when the media interviews prof. Lichtman, they only want to discuss who the book says is going to win – and not discuss the wasted money that is spent every election cycle.

I agree that the book could be shortened - the meat is in the first two chapters with the rest of the book outlining the historical evidence for his claims. All in all, a very good book that I hope proves (in this election) that actual government performance is what wins the White House.

I'm not saying which candidate I'm supporting, but I believe in the "Keys" :)

10 people found this helpful

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Marc R. Halley

Did he predict this election? NO. He predicted Trump, but his model predicts the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote!!!

Reviewed in the United States on November 21, 2016

Verified Purchase

OK, very intriguing model based upon how well the incumbent party governs. Good, but missed it this time!

So according to the news, Lichtman picked Trump to win. Six keys were against the Democrats to hold on. That's enough to lose.

HOWEVER, Lichtman's keys predict, he states over and over, the popular vote. The Democrats won the popular vote. He predicted Al Gore who won the popular vote.

So the Trump prediction was wrong. Can you have it both ways?

12 people found this helpful

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Kindle Customer

Very interesting idea, but plodding book

Reviewed in the United States on May 22, 2017

Verified Purchase

I had looked forward to more analysis of recent elections according to this system. But as it covers every single election since 1860, each one is covered very briefly. It will be interesting to see what he says in future as his system failed in 2016! He predicted a Trump victory. Yet his system is designed to select the winner of the popular vote and Clinton won that substantially. He will probably argue that a generic Republican would have won, but Trump's weakness as a candidate caused him to lose the popular vote and nearly lose the election.

3 people found this helpful

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Charlie Aukerman

Good book for political junkies

Reviewed in the United States on September 30, 2016

Verified Purchase

This is a revised edition of one of the seminal books on predicting the outcome of presidential elections. Professor Lichtman makes his case well, but I still think there is an element of subjectivity to the system which is supposed to be objective in nature. I've used this book every presidential election since I first got it, and find its premise promising despite my thoughts on it subjectivity.

4 people found this helpful

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obaquerizo

I do like this book

Reviewed in the United States on April 14, 2017

Verified Purchase

I do like this book, give you a lot of historical background on how the USA potilical has been moving through ages. And giving different insight on how you can be or not the president of the USA

One person found this helpful

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Morellwj3

Four Stars

Reviewed in the United States on December 26, 2016

Verified Purchase

Interesting, but did the predictions and keys fail in the 2016 presidential elections

Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2016

Verified Purchase

Very interesting book and hard to refute the results.

One person found this helpful

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DKM (prof)

Four Stars

Reviewed in the United States on March 28, 2017

Verified Purchase

Interesting, not fascinating

One person found this helpful

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Cliente Amazon

libro valido

Reviewed in Italy on May 27, 2017

Verified Purchase

allan lichtman ha la fama di aver indovinato tutti i presidenti americani ( trump incluso) durante le elezioni per otto volte.se siete appassionati di politica americana e di elezioni non vi resta che leggere questo libro. attraverso le chiavi, descritte nel libro, capirete cosa puo' portare alla vittoria un presidente in corsa, anche quando l'opinione pubblica e la stampa pensa che la corsa sia chiusa.

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