Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016 ed. Edition

by Allan J. Lichtman (Author)

14 customer reviews

ISBN-13: 978-1442269200

ISBN-10: 1442269200

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In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House

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Editorial Reviews

Review

Lichtman's book has gone through many editions because his 12 keys to predicting the next president all seem plausible influences on presidential election outcomes. To his credit, Lichtman (history, American Univ.) has called the outcome of every presidential election from 1984 to 2008. Yet some of his model's variables permit a bit of fudging. Two involve the relative "charisma" of the presidential candidates. Similar concerns arise regarding his variables "sustained social unrest," "scandal," and foreign/military "success" and "failure." Reliable measures of any of these "keys" are fraught with peril. This is the case regarding his 2012 prediction of an Obama victory. For example, Lichtman says that neither the Tea Party nor Occupy Wall Street movements are a sign of sustained social unrest, but that remains a judgment call. Perhaps the best way to understand Lichtman's prior success is that he correctly defined some fuzzy factors for several elections. But given the ambiguity of several "keys," future predictions have considerable capacity for error. The book does not discover the Rosetta Stone of election forecasts, but instead reveals one scholar's able series of educated guesses. Summing Up: Recommended. (CHOICE)

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for every other network and cable channel. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement.

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Product Details

Paperback: 240 pages
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers; 2016 ed. edition (May 2, 2016)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1442269200
ISBN-13: 978-1442269200
Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.7 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #295,558 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #368 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > Elections & Political Process > Elections
- #502 in Books > Textbooks > Social Sciences > Political Science > Government
- #572 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > United States > Executive Branch

Customer Reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars

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Top Customer Reviews

Extremely intelligent and interesting, first rate

Bydoug kortyon November 11, 2016

Format: Paperback

I read this book after the election, I count 7 negative Keys for the incumbent party which would predict a Trump win. Six or more of the 13 Keys means the incumbent party will lose. Clinton won the popular vote by a small margin, essentially a tie. However, you could say that given how terrible Trump is, for him to tie would be a confirmation of the Lichtman's method. That is, you have to adjust for the extraordinarily negative nature of Trump.

I did statistical forecasting for 30 years and I have critiqued many types of forecasts. This is a crude method but I do like it. Often simple models work well and are appropriate. The most important issues are whether the variables make sense and whether the model works over a long period. These variables all make sense and the model seems to work. Some would criticize the variables for being subjective or subject to interpretation but they are not all that subjective and as Lichtman says, that is the nature of the beast. We are dealing with history, not quantitative matters. Was Clinton charismatic or a national hero? Some could argue but I think that is a NO. Has the administration had NO major failure in foreign or military affairs? Again, one could argue but I think that is a NO. You can view the 13 Keys with the Look Inside feature.

Has Lichtman got the magic formula? It might be improved with more sophisticated statistical work. I would not bet my life savings on it but it is extremely intelligent and interesting and worth thinking about. He is a serious scholar and first rate historian.

I create educational websites, Midwest Independent Research. I have one on democracy and politics, mwir-democracyandpolitics.blogspot com and one on research and statistics, mwir-researchandstats.blogspot com. Both have book lists.

0Comment 22 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

but Lichtman seems to be able to do it with great accuracy. The incumbency key is pretty clear however

ByRichard W. Bishopon January 14, 2017

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

Lichtman presents a very interesting concept: 13 keys to the White House that can be determined well before the actual campaigns begin. What it takes to turn each key is not completely clear to me, but Lichtman seems to be able to do it with great accuracy. The incumbency key is pretty clear however, watching the numbers each party has in the House and the Senate and whether they are increasing or decreasing is important. The 2018 congressional elections will be telling for the Republicans for 2020. Stay tuned!

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Did he predict this election? NO. He predicted Trump, but his model predicts the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote!!!

ByMarc R. Halleyon November 21, 2016

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

OK, very intriguing model based upon how well the incumbent party governs. Good, but missed it this time!

So according to the news, Lichtman picked Trump to win. Six keys were against the Democrats to hold on. That's enough to lose.

HOWEVER, Lichtman's keys predict, he states over and over, the popular vote. The Democrats won the popular vote. He predicted Al Gore who won the popular vote.

So the Trump prediction was wrong. Can you have it both ways?

22 comments 3 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNo

Five Stars

ByThomas D Taggarton December 28, 2016

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

Good read!

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Five Stars

ByVvvon February 10, 2017

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

good book

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Refreshing change from the usual political analysis

ByD. Owenon November 11, 2016

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

On November 8, I was dumbfounded when Trump won the election. All the political analysts were saying Hillary would win. The polls indicated she would win. The Clinton campaign was a well-funded, professional operation. The Trump campaign was a dumpster fire. What the hell happened?

Well according to Lichtman, "history shows that a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House, as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term— economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation. If the nation fares well during the term of the incumbent party, that party wins another four years in office; otherwise, the challenging party prevails. "

He says "Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies— the usual grist for the punditry mills— count for virtually nothing on Election Day. The only issues that matter are the ones for which the results are already in before the campaign begins."

He identifies thirteen diagnostic questions that he calls "Keys to the White House." These questions are stated as propositions favoring re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

It's all laid out in the book, which I’m finding to be a very interesting read. I don't know if he is 100% right or if his system will always predict the outcome of an election, but I find this perspective a refreshing change from the usual pre-election horse race coverage, and post-election finger pointing and hand wringing about how the loser might have won if only she had run a better campaign or been a 75-year old populist, socialist.

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A very interesting analysis on how presidential elections are really won

ByJohnon October 19, 2016

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

For me, the most fascinating conclusion of prof. Lichtman’s research is that the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on campaigns, advertisement, consultants, and polls is just wasted money. I really want to believe that his conclusion is correct because campaigning has now become a joke. It is a shame that when the media interviews prof. Lichtman, they only want to discuss who the book says is going to win – and not discuss the wasted money that is spent every election cycle.

I agree that the book could be shortened - the meat is in the first two chapters with the rest of the book outlining the historical evidence for his claims. All in all, a very good book that I hope proves (in this election) that actual government performance is what wins the White House.

I'm not saying which candidate I'm supporting, but I believe in the "Keys" :)

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False Advertising

ByDivya Thadanion December 13, 2016

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

The book's sales has gone up after the 2016 elections because of the author's bragging that he was able to predict the Trump victory. While reading the book though, one will find out that the author was trying to predict the results of the POPULAR vote and therefore if he predicted Trump would win, that meant Trump would win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote.By at least 2.8 million votes. So the author's system was wrong this time. That is false advertising.

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Most Recent Customer Reviews

Four Stars

Interesting, but did the predictions and keys fail in the 2016 presidential elections

Published 2 months ago by Wilbert J. Morell

Five Stars

More historical detail than needed, but interesting. It's a relief to be able to predict our next President! ;>)

Published 5 months ago by Marsha

Good book for political junkies

This is a revised edition of one of the seminal books on predicting the outcome of presidential elections.Read more

Published 5 months ago by Charlie Aukerman

Four Stars

Very interesting book and hard to refute the results.

Published 8 months ago by John Emerson (johnejazz@aol.com)

Very interesting concept and definately worth the read.

Very interesting concept and definately worth the read. You may have to review this book a few times to get the criteria down for future predicting but overall I'd rate this book...Read more

Published on January 2, 2015 by Randy Rueger

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