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Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House Paperback – August 7, 2020

by Allan Lichtman (Author)

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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections, Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Lichtman applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Print length

240 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Publication date

August 7, 2020
Dimensions

6.1 x 0.72 x 9.1 inches
ISBN-10

153814865X
ISBN-13

978-1538148655
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Editorial Reviews

Review

Thisintriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods.

― Publishers Weekly

Ofthe hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.

― Roll Call

Animportant reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.

-- Charlie Cook, editor, The Cook Political Report, political analyst, National Journal and NBC News

Review

This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods.

― Publishers Weekly

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.

― Roll Call

An important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.

-- Charlie Cook, editor, The Cook Political Report, political analyst, National Journal and NBC News

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Rowman & Littlefield Publishers; 2020th edition (August 7, 2020)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 153814865X
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1538148655
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12.8 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.1 x 0.72 x 9.1 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #740,343 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #785 in Elections
- #927 in United States Executive Government
- #10,401 in Specific Topics in Politics & Government

Customer Reviews:
88

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Allan J. Lichtman

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Allan J. Lichtman received his PhD from Harvard University in 1973 and is currently

Distinguished Professor of History at American University in Washington, D.C. He specializes

in American political history and the presidency. Dr. Lichtman has authored or co-authored nine

books, and hundreds of scholarly and popular articles. His latest book is The Case for

Impeachment (Dey Street books, 2017), was an independent book store best seller, an

Amazon.com bestseller in several academic categories, and a Newsweek, best new book release.

Dr. Lichtman’s book FDR and the Jews (Harvard, 2013, with Richard Breitman), won

the National Jewish Book Award in American Jewish History. It was a 2013 New York Times

editor’s choice, and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize in History. His book, White

Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement (Grove/Atlantic 2008), was

a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in non-fiction. The Teaching Company

produced his video lectures on Great Presidents as part of their “Great Courses” series.

Dr. Lichtman is the co-developer of the Keys system that has successfully predicted the

outcome of every presidential election since 1984. In September 2016, he defied the

conventional wisdom to predict the election of Donald Trump. In early 2016, Rowman &

Littlefield published the sixth edition of his Keys book series, Predicting the Next President: The

Keys to the White House 2016.

Dr. Lichtman has lectured extensively in the United States and abroad. He has provided

commentary for all major television and radio outlets and is regularly quoted by leading

newspapers and magazines worldwide. He has served as an expert witness in more than 90

federal civil rights cases, including recent landmark cases challenging restrictive voting laws in

North Carolina and Texas. As an expert for the U. S. Commission on Civil Rights Dr. Lichtman

discovered that the outcome of the 2000 presidential election turned on the vast disparity in rates

at which officials rejected ballots cast by blacks and whites in Florida. Dr. Lichtman received the

American University Scholar/Teacher of the year award for 1992-3, the University’s highest

academic honor.

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5

88 global ratings

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C. E. Boyles

Learned of Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys at University

Reviewed in the United States on September 28, 2020

Verified Purchase

I have a couple of editions of this book. I needed to add this edition to the collection. You can hear Allan describe how he turns the 2020 keys in an interview with Valuetainment on YouTube in September 2020.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

Jarene Young

DON’T DOUBT ALAN!

Reviewed in the United States on August 31, 2020

Verified Purchase

Pray Alan is right again! I bought two different editions! Great double read!

3 people found this helpful

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IURII

Good and useful book

Reviewed in the United States on October 7, 2020

Verified Purchase

Good and interesting book for those who are interested on politics.

2 people found this helpful

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David lukas

Become reality.

Reviewed in the United States on January 16, 2021

Perfectly perfect.

A Botched Update of a Good Book

Reviewed in the United States on September 30, 2020

Verified Purchase

This is going to be a harsh review, so let me preface it by saying that this book is actually quite good, as I will explain after I describe its train-wreck aspects, which earn it a single star despite its virtues.

Something went very wrong in updating this book for the 2020 edition. It’s quite clear, in fact, that this is the 2012 edition with a foreword and a 2020 prediction tacked onto it. This means it discusses the 2012 election as if it hadn’t happened yet, and does not contain the 2016 prediction, which is Allan Lichtman’s main claim to fame, his model being virtually unique in correctly predicting that disaster.

Some inconsistencies within the book make me suspect they did intend to include the prediction from the 2016 edition (e.g certain page headers refer to “The Obama Legacy Repudiated”), but someone somewhere dropped the ball.

As for the content of the book, the 2020 prediction is no such thing, since a) the author states he is not sure whether enough keys have fallen to lose Trump the election, and b) he states that he doubts his model’s validity given the electoral disruptions due to COVID, Putin and Trump. He has since become confident enough to retract (a) on social media, but this book was evidently rushed to the presses before he reached that conclusion.

Furthermore, the author does not adequately address a serious methodological problem: his model was created to predict the popular vote, but in 2016 it correctly predicted only the electoral college result. His response was to redefine the model as predicting only the electoral college vote, with only a perfunctory gesture at an explanation as to how a model that was built and employed to predict one variable is suddenly applied to a different variable without adjusting the model itself in any way.

Other than that the book is very interesting. It offers a compelling, counterintuitive, empirically-based and pellucid analysis of how American presidential elections are decided. The main idea can be summed up as “it’s the performance, stupid!” or “damn the campaigns!” What lends depth to this seemingly simplistic premise is the statistical and historical rigor with which it is applied. If Dr. Lichtman were to unbotch this mess I would give it five stars.

20 people found this helpful

Helpful

NancyG

missing the 2016 chapter

Reviewed in the United States on August 17, 2020

I am a big fan of this book, having greatly enjoyed the walk through each election. I had purchased the 2012 version on kindle, but didn't get around to buying the 2016 edition. I figured I'd wait a couple of weeks and just get the 2020 edition. I was disappointed that the text of the book was the same (probably as the 2008 edition), with the 2012 chapter, then it went into a chapter on 2020. It completely omitted the discussion of the 2016 election! If he's just tacking on a new chapter for each year, then why omit 2016? In 2000 when he'd predicted Gore, and said the FL recount had so many errors in it and the recount was stopped early so Bush ended up winning by less than a thousand votes. He also made some reference to the shift in demographics meaning the democrats will always win the popular vote now (like Bush-Gore and Clinton-Trump) so his analysis now applies to the electoral college. This however invalidates his pick for Bush-Gore. I hope the author will not continue to claim he's picked every election, then change his definitions mid-stream. If it doesn't work for recent elections, then he needs to explain the shortcomings and then adjust his predictions. It's too fascinating a theory with such great success to just sweep any issues under the rug and ignore them. I'm hoping he'll completely revamp the book (and not just keep on adding stand-alone chapters), and think his theory through more carefully.

11 people found this helpful

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王冠

very good!

Reviewed in the United States on March 27, 2021

Verified Purchase

very good!

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Alex S

10 Correct Predictions

Reviewed in Canada on November 1, 2023

Verified Purchase

An excellent system in predicting the leader of the USA.

Amazon Customer

Great Reaad

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 17, 2023

Verified Purchase

Very interesting and this is a major read for those interested in US politics.

James Caruana

Chapters in new edition need updating!

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 28, 2020

Verified Purchase

Very interesting book, studying how Presidential Elections are won and lost by the incumbent party. One major issue with the book is that despite having a chapter on the 2020 Election, the previous chapters of the new edition have not been edited to bring them up to date.

As the book has had a new edition since the 1980s, it is noticable that it mentions that only one president has been impeached by the House, despite this happening to both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton (as well as Donald Trump).

Despite the final chapter ending with a 2020 prediction, it also completely ignores 2016 with the commentary ending with the 2012 Election.

Despite this, it provides a good history of presidential elections.

One person found this helpful

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