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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future Taschenbuch – 12. Oktober 2010

von Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (Author)

4,3 167 Sternebewertungen

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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.

Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).

But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).

Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

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Seitenzahl der Print-Ausgabe

288 Seiten
Sprache

Englisch
Erscheinungstermin

12. Oktober 2010
Abmessungen

13.18 x 1.65 x 20.32 cm
ISBN-10

081297977X
ISBN-13

978-0812979770
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The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

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Peter Letterese
Game Theory Made (Rapidly) Understandable & Applicable
Bewertet in den USA am20. Dezember 2009
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In reading over a few of the Reviews of this book I am struck by the fact that certain readers seem dedicated to finding fault with it. However, in almost none of the skeptic reviews do the skeptical reviewers compare Dr. de Mesquita's Prediction "batting average" to that of any other Prediction Professional, by name or otherwise; especially in subject areas where the non-referenced Prediction Professional lacked EXPERTISE. Nor do they apparently compare Dr. de Mesquita's Prediction "batting average" to any prediction success of their own.

This is important to accurately evaluating THE PREDICTIONEER'S GAME. Having had quite a bit of business and personal predicting of my own to (try to) do, most nervously IN MATTERS WHERE I WAS NOT AN EXPERT, and where my accuracy or lack of it was nevertheless going to matter a great deal, I have never had a specific, orderly method I had enough confidence in to seek to teach others. I simply haven't been, in my own mind, "organized or formulaic enough to teach others how to predict just about anything, anytime, involving whomever, however or wherever". Dr. de Mesquita isn't afraid of this challenge at all. The skeptic reviewers seem to have overlooked this enormous factor.

The Triumph of this book and the method it reveals is that one ABSOLUTELY NEED NOT BE AN EXPERT IN A SUBJECT AREA UNDER PREDICTION TO ABLY PREDICT OUTCOMES IN IT. Because Dr. de Mesquita has so very often not been that "expert"!

Dr. de Mesquita does not suffer from "hanging out only in his own backyard (of personal/professional expertise)". His Prediction Algorithms, human and computerized alike are precise, straightforward and better than either off-the-cuff or deliberated prediction approaches you would find. In fact, he asserts that it is better, in Predictioneering NOT to have intimate knowledge of an area to be forecast.

All of which makes his approach unique and enormously valuable.

I highly recommend the book. But more importantly, I recommend to those skeptical reviewers mentioned above actually trying Dr. de Mesquita's method in some area of importance to them and then judge! I did and the results were startling.

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Gregory J. Casteel
Good for what it was; but still a bit disappointing
Bewertet in den USA am15. September 2010
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I have really mixed feelings about this book. I began reading it with high expectations. I was already fairly familiar with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's work, and his unconventional and somewhat controversial methods. Bueno de Mesquita (in graduate school we referred to him as "BDM" for short) is a relatively famous political scientist (famous enough to have been interviewed by Jon Stewart on "The Daily Show") who takes a "rational choice" approach to the study of political phenomena. In other words, BDM uses game theory, expected utility theory, prospect theory, and other similar quantitative methods borrowed from economics to model political behavior much in the same way that economists model economic behavior. I've been intrigued by BDM's methods ever since I first encountered his work in grad school. Like most political scientists, I was initially rather skeptical of BDM's approach to modeling and predicting political phenomena -- and I'm still not convinced that the underlying assumptions behind his models of political decision making are entirely correct -- but the success of his models at accurately predicting world events is hard to deny. He must be doing something right.

Anyway, I've always wanted to learn more about BDM's methods, and to be able to explain those methods to my own students as clearly and concisely as possible, without oversimplifying the complexity of what his models do, or glossing over important details about how they work. I was hoping this book would do just that. In fact, I was hoping this book would be suitable for use in some of my upper-level courses, where I discuss various methods for studying political phenomena such as the causes of war. Unfortunately, the book just didn't quite live up to my hopes or expectations.

The problem has nothing to do with BDM's methods -- which I find intriguing and worthy of serious consideration. The problem is simply that this book doesn't really get into the "meat" of those methods as much as I was hoping it would. I found the treatment far too superficial. The book reads more like a sales brochure than an operator's manual. It tells you what sort of things BDM's models can do. It recounts several anecdotes about how BDM has used these models, both in his scholarly research and in his work as a consultant for government and business. It explains, in very general terms, the underlying logic behind BDM's methods. It makes a case for why it makes good sense for scholars, analysts, and decision makers to rely on predictive models of the sort that BDM has developed. But it doesn't really explain, in a clear, concise, step-by-step way, exactly how these models work to generate their predictions about the future, or how someone would go about setting up and running a predictive model using BDM's methods. Sure, it gives hints here and there. And if you carefully read the entire book, including the appendices, you can piece together enough information from the various illustrations and anecdotes to figure out how to craft a fairly simple, back-of-the-envelope predictive model that will give you a crude prediction of the most likely outcome of a decision process. But nowhere in the book does BDM provide step-by-step instructions for how to build a predictive model and how to use it. There are no formulas, no flow charts, no computer code, no explicit instructions for exactly how to get the predictions you want from the information you have. The lack of explicit instructions for how to build and use the sort of predictive models that BDM has developed is the single biggest weakness of this book.

BDM discusses his method of "predictioneering" mainly by relating a series of anecdotes about work he has done over the years as a scholar and as a consultant. Each anecdote illustrates some specific aspect of the methods he uses to predict -- and in some cases to influence or manipulate -- the outcomes of various decision processes. Although some of these anecdotes were interesting in their own right, and they did serve to illustrate the points BDM was trying to make, I found myself quickly growing bored and frustrated with this approach. Trying to understand BDM's methods by reading this book is akin to trying to piece together a jigsaw puzzle as someone hands you one piece at a time, and insists on telling you a story about each piece before letting you have the next one. After a while, I just wanted to scream: "Enough with the stories already! Just give me all the pieces and show me how to put them together!" This book is, for the most part, a collection of stories about the individual pieces of the puzzle. It never quite gets around to putting all the pieces together (at least not to my satisfaction).

This review has largely been negative; but only because the book failed to live up to my rather high hopes and expectations. I don't want to leave the (false) impression that this book isn't worth reading (I gave it a "four star" rating, after all). There are some very valuable insights here, especially for those readers who may not be at all familiar with BDM's work. I'm certainly glad I read this book; and I enjoyed many parts of it -- especially the final three chapters, where BDM uses his method to shed some light on historical events and to make a few predictions about the likely outcome of a handful of important current events. But, as a political science professor evaluating this book for potential classroom use, I feel that it falls short of what I'm looking for. It gives the reader a taste of what BDM's methods can do; but it doesn't really teach the reader how to use those methods. For the lay reader who is simply curious about how it may be possible to use computer models to predict, and even influence, the future, that may be sufficient. But for students who want to learn to build their own predictive models, it is not.

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Mark Bender
Brilliant !!!
Bewertet in den USA am8. Oktober 2009
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I just completed this book and its a eye opener. I saw Bruce on the History channel and I became curious about his work. In every age there is always the pioneers, the ones that see things a little differently but have a new idea. New ideas that take sometimes a long time to soak into the society around them. He is really onto somthing here and it deserves a much closer look and to be taken seriously. I like the objective analysis and mathmatical background. I don't fault him for not providing a detail run time algorithm in this book. Bruce is trying to open our eye here; if you want to get into the details of the statistical process then these are avilable in peer reviewed articles you can find at your local University libarary.

For me I was astonished at the scope and breadth of his analysis. His thinking takes us to a new way of looking at politics and economics. After I finished I am surprised that more goverment agencies are not already doing this type of analysis for everything. I am looking forward to seeing how his works is expanded in the future as other serious scholars advance his ideas.

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Howard
Great anecdotal introduction to game theory
Bewertet in Kanada am 1. April 2018
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Great anecdotal introduction to game theory. Easy to read. I thought the stories about the power of de Mesquita's analysis were reasonably balanced by the limitations.

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DYF
Excelente
Bewertet in Mexiko am 13. März 2018
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Lectura fácil y rapida, aunque en ingles... nunca lo he visto en español. Guía rápida sobre La Teoría de Juegos y como aplicarla

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L. M. Hohmann
A DEFINITE MUST-READ!
Bewertet in Großbritannien am 5. Juni 2016
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Predictioneer was highly recommended by one of my correspondents as a ‘must read’ – and so I did.
And was astounded right from the start, when reading in Game Theory 101:

“Bayes’ Theorem provides a way to calculate how people digest new information. It assumes that everyone uses such information to check whether what they believe is consistent with their new knowledge….in response to new information that reinforces or contradicts what we thought was true. In that way, the theorem, and the game theorists who rely on it, view beliefs as malleable rather than as unalterable biases lurking in a person’s head.

“In real life there are plenty of incentives for others (and for us) to lie… Therefore, to predict the future we have to reflect on when people are likely to lie and when they are most likely to tell the truth. In engineering the future, our task is to find the right incentives so that people tell the truth, or so that, when it helps our cause, they believe our lies.”

Definitely a book for me, I thought – great lacunae in my knowledge here.
So I read it cover to cover in one day (and a TYGER night).

Can only confirm: it's an eye (and mind) opening must read, to the extent that I wrote a special blogsite explaining further why I think so, as well as giving some further links to teach-ins for the theory and solutions described. Pasting LACUNA DIVE into any internet explorer will find my blog (where I am the CleanEnergyPundit)

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Willy
Average book
Bewertet in Frankreich am 5. Januar 2016
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The book is a lot about promoting his author methodology/product for his consulting services.
If you're interesting on the subject, you'd better buy Superforcasting, which is incredibly good and well documented.

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Thomas L.
Mathematik und Politik
Bewertet in Deutschland am 17. April 2010
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Eigentlich ein Widerspruch. Mathematik ist streng logisch. Politik und überhaupt das menschliche Leben sind nicht logisch. Zumindestens handeln die meisten Menschen nicht nach den Gesetzen der Logik, so wie sich Mathematiker und auch viele Naturwissenschafler diese vorstellen. Dennoch sind die Handlungen von Menschen oft vorhersagbar. Genau diese Tatsache macht sich die Spieltheorie zu Nutze, wenn sie das Ergebnis der Verhandlungen zwischen vielen Personen, von denen jede ein bekanntes Verhaltensmuster besitzt, mit Hilfe mathematischer Methoden vorhersagt. Solche Verhandlungen ( Spiele ) kommen in Politik, Wirtschaft und Justiz häufig vor. Hier genau hat die Theorie einen enormen Nutz- und Erkenntniswert. Das Buch beschreibt ihre Anwendung mit vielen, teilweise frappierenden Beispielen aus den bereits genannten Anwendungsgebieten.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ist auf diesem Gebiet Praktiker, d.h. er hat viele reale politische Ereignisse korrekt vorhergesagt. Auch im Bereich von Gerichtsverfahren und in der Wirtschaft war er erfolgreich als Berater tätig, indem er spieltheoretische Methoden anwandte.
Das ganze ist keine Lektüre zum Wohlfühlen, da die Verhaltensmuster, mit denen die Spieltheorie arbeitet, in erster Linie schierer Egoismus und krasse Egomanie ( letztere vor allem bei Politikern und Managern ) sind. Sie beschreibt mit mathematischen Methoden eine Welt, die sich meisten Menschen, wenn sie die Wahl gehabt hätten, so nicht ausgesucht hätten. Deswegen stellt sich auch die Frage nach dem Mißbrauch dieser Theorie, z.B. durch "böse" Diktatoren. Auch darauf geht das Buch ein. Es bietet also viel Stoff zum Lesen, Nachdenken und Grübeln.

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