- Hardcover: 320 pages
- Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (February 19, 2013)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 1118356853
- ISBN-13: 978-1118356852
- Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
- Shipping Weight: 7.2 ounces
- Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (295 customer reviews)
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #136,627 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die Hardcover – February 19, 2013
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From the Publisher
Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die
Q & A with Author Eric Siegel
Did Nate Silver use predictive analytics to forecast Obama's 2012 election?
No—but Obama did use predictive analytics to help get elected. Nate Silver made election forecasts for each state as a whole: which way would a state trend, overall? In the meantime, the Obama campaign was using predictive analytics to render per-voter predictions. Moving beyond forecasting, true power comes in influencing the future rather than speculating on it—the raison d'être of predictive analytics. Nate Silver publicly competed to win election forecasting, while Obama's analytics team quietly competed to win the election itself. Specifically, team Obama drove per-voter campaign decisions by way of per-vote predictions.
Why does early retirement predict a shorter life expectancy & why do vegetarians miss fewer flights?
These are two more colorful examples of the multitudes of predictive discoveries waiting within data.
University of Zurich discovered that, for a certain working category of males in Austria, each additional year of early retirement decreases life expectancy by 1.8 months. They conjecture that this could be due to unhealthy habits such as smoking and drinking following retirement.
One airline discovered that customers who preorder a vegetarian meal are more likely to make their flight, with the interpretation that knowledge of a personalized or specific meal awaiting the customer provides an incentive, or establishes a sense of commitment.
Predictive analytics seeks out such predictive connections and then works to see how they may combine together for more precise prediction.
What are the hottest trends in predictive analytics?
There have been many exciting improvements in the core technology of predictive analytics. One is "uplift modeling" (a.k.a. "persuasion modeling"), which predicts influence. ..in order to do influence. The Obama campaign used it to influence voters in the 2012 presidential election; marketing uses it to more adeptly persuade customers; and medicine uses it to better select per-patient treatments. This topic is the focus of the final chapter of this book.
Another hot trend is ensemble models. Like the collective intelligence that spawns the wisdom of a crowd of people, we see the same effect with a crowd of predictive models. Each model alone may be fairly primitive such as a few simple rules, so it gets prediction wrong a lot, as an individual person trying to predict also does. But have them come together as a group and there emerges a new level of predictive performance.
Does the NSA use predictive analytics, and how does that impact the amount of data collected on us?
It's a foregone conclusion that the world's largest spy organization employing the world's largest number of Ph.D. mathematicians considers predictive analytics a strategic priority. Predictive analytics realizes a great potential for law enforcement: The automatic discovery of new suspects. The value of this capability multiplies the incentive to collect increasing amounts of data about civilians. The NSA needs data about everyone, including those of us with no connection to crime whatsoever—not to spy on us but to establish a quantitative baseline. This in turn only amplifies the stakes of the contentious security-versus-privacy debate.
What is the coolest thing predictive analytics has done?
One of the most inspirational accomplishments of predictive analytics is IBM's "Jeopardy!"-playing Watson computer, which triumphed against the all-time human champions on the TV quiz show. The questions can be about most any topic, are intended for humans to answer, and can be complex grammatically. It turns out that predictive modeling is the way in which Watson succeeds in determining the answer to a question: it predicts, "Is this candidate answer the correct answer to this question?" It knocks off one correct answer after another—incredible.
What are companies predicting about me as a customer?
Here are just a few examples:
- Facebook predicts which of 1,500 candidate posts (on average) will be most interesting to you in order to personalize your ordered news feed.
- Microsoft helped develop technology that, based on GPS data, accurately predicts one's location up to multiple years beforehand.
- Target predicts customer pregnancy from shopping behavior, thus identifying prospects to contact with offers related to the needs of a newborn's parents.
- Tesco (UK) annually issues 100 million personalized coupons at grocery cash registers across 13 countries. Predictive analytics increased redemption rates by a factor of 3.6.
- Netflix sponsored a $1 million competition to predict which movies you will like in order to improve movie recommendations.
- One top-five U.S. health insurance company predicts the likelihood an elderly insurance policy holder will die within 18 months in order to trigger end-of-life counseling.
Praise for "Predictive Analytics"
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..."
—The Seattle Post-Intelligencer
"Littered with lively examples..."
—The Financial Times
"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else. A broad, well-written book easily accessible to non-nerd readers."
—David Leinweber, author of "Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets"
""Predictive Analytics" is not only a deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today, it is also a delight to read."
—Geoffrey Moore, author of "Crossing the Chasm"
"The most readable (for we laymen) 'big data' book I've come across. By far. Great vignettes/stories."
—Tom Peters, co-author of "In Search of Excellence"
"An operating manual for twenty-first-century life. Drawing predictions from big data is at the heart of nearly everything, whether it's in science, business, finance, sports, or politics. And Eric Siegel is the ideal guide."
—Stephen Baker, author of "The Numerati and Final Jeopardy: The Story of Watson, the Computer That Will Transform Our World"
"Simultaneously entertaining, informative, and nuanced. Siegel goes behind the hype and makes the science exciting."
—Rayid Ghani, Chief Data Scientist, Obama for America 2012 Campaign
""Moneyball" for business, government, and healthcare."
—Jim Sterne, founder, eMetrics Summit; chairman, Digital Analytics Association
From the Back Cover
TRANSLATED INTO 9 LANGUAGES USED IN COURSES AT MORE THAN 30 UNIVERSITIES
In this rich, fascinatingand surprisingly accessibleintroduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics works, and how it affects everyone every day.
Trendsetters like Chase, Facebook, Google, Hillary for America, HP, IBM, Match.com, Netflix, the NSA, Pfizer, Target, and Uber are seizing upon the power of big data to predict human behaviorincluding yours.
Why? Predictive analytics reinvents industries and runs the world. Read on to discover how it combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.
"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else."
David Leinweber, author of Nerds on Wall Street
"The Freakonomics of big data."
Stein Kretsinger, founding executive, Advertising.com
"A deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today."
Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm
"Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."
Jim Sterne, founder, eMetrics Summit
Learn more: www.ThePredictionBook.com
About the Author
ERIC SIEGEL, PhD, is the founder of Predictive Analytics World and executive editor of The Predictive Analytics Times. A former Columbia University professor, he is a renowned speaker, educator, and leader in the field.
Top Customer Reviews
Author: Eric Siegel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
With the astronomical mass of electronic data collected today, one may be wary of driving a GPS-tracked automobile, texting on a cellphone, purchasing grocery items with a credit card, posting on Facebook, anxiously blogging or clicking a mouse for information on Google. But to Eric Siegel, this collective and easily-available data is fascinating as he compiles, analyzes and predicts in his eye-opening book, "Predictive Analytics - The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie or Die."
In a little over three hundred pages in the hardbound book, Siegel breaks down predictive analytics (aka PA) into seven chapters with an afterword, appendices, notes, acknowledgement, author biography and index. The book is targeted from the small to large business owner, entrepreneurs, other PAers and us common folk who want to further understand how computerized data research is analyzed to predict specified outcomes and scenarios.
Cause and effect charts, illustrations along with a few comics and a glossy centerfold divulge cases of predictions in advertising, finance, healthcare, fraud, insurance, government, employment and personal venues. Some topics discussed explain ways to increase consumer buying, limit bank loan defaulting or paying off, anticipate employees quitting or clients dropping cellphone coverage along with collecting online blogs, social networking and risk information. Each chapter includes sections of "what's predicted" and "what's done about it" to show the correlation of PA and gathered data.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Eric Siegel is telling it all regarding predictive analytics. He suggests people are having their behavior examined and collected by corporations, political think tanks, etc. Read morePublished 5 hours ago by a. d. kyles
Fantastic author! Also really describes the field of predictive analytics!Published 17 hours ago by Amazon Customer
Fantastic book! Great concepts about business analytics that can be applied in the field.Published 9 days ago by Alan
Not a bad intro to the subject of Predictive Analytics and what it is about. I would recommend it to anyone with no math or stats background looking in to what the subject is all... Read morePublished 18 days ago by Geoff Howard
Very wordy to bring across a point
I did like the examples he gave a lot though
Eric took very difficult concepts and simplified them for all readers (both new and established readers). Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer
I highly recommend this book to anyone tangentially related to the analytics world who's looking to get their head around predictive analytics. Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer