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Thomas Bass

The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street Paperback – November 1, 2000

by Thomas A. Bass (Author)

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Excerpted in The New Yorker and hailed by the business press, The Predictors is destined to become a classic of its generation--an antic, subversive odyssey into a universe defined by the mystical convergence of physics and finance.

How could a couple of rumpled physicists in sandals and Eat-the-Rich T-shirts, piling computers into an adobe house in Santa Fe, hope to take on the masters of the universe from Morgan Stanley? Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard may never have read The Wall Street Journal, but they happen to be among the founders of the new sciences of chaos and complexity. Who better to try to find order in the apparently unreasoned chaos of the global financial markets? Thomas A. Bass takes us inside their start-up company, following it from its inception as a motley collection of longhaired Ph.D.s to its passage into the centers of financial power, where "the predictors" find investors and finally go live with real money. The Predictors is a dizzying, often hilarious tale of genius and greed.

Print length

320 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Holt Paperbacks
Publication date

November 1, 2000
Dimensions

5.5 x 0.72 x 8.5 inches
ISBN-10

0805057579
ISBN-13

978-0805057577
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“His narrative [teaches] readers about chaos theory as it relates to economics, about the increasingly recondite instruments of investment in the age of derivatives and, perhaps most important, about the evolution of financial markets toward automation.” ―The New York Times

“One of the best books ever written about commodities, currency and derivatives trading.” ―David Lazarus, San Francisco Chronicle

About the Author

Thomas A. Bass, the author of The Eudaemonic Pie and several other books. He writes for Wired and other magazines. He lives in Clinton, New York.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Holt Paperbacks; First edition (November 1, 2000)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0805057579
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0805057577
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 15.2 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 0.72 x 8.5 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #611,229 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #76 in Chaos Theory
- #263 in Commodities Trading (Books)
- #283 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Books)

Customer Reviews:
55 ratings

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5 star		65%
4 star		18%
3 star		5%
2 star		6%
1 star		5%

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Marcus M. Mendez

I can understand why some people might not love this book

Reviewed in the United States on February 16, 2018

Verified Purchase

I can understand why some people might not love this book. It gets a bit meandering at times, and the timeline is somewhat nonlinear, which can make it difficult to follow the story at times. It also helps to have read Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop as a precursor. Beyond that, another difficulty arises with the way the detailed description of sometimes seemingly superficial matters such as the way people are dressed, as one other reviewer noted and I somewhat agree with. in other words, there are times in reading this book that one can get distracted. To add to this, it is not clear that any sane non-mathematical reader would want to read this book and expect to learn how to beat or predict the markets. On the other hand, it also doesn't seem that someone who is deeply scientific would want to read this book either, with its absence of equations and precise definitional technicality for explaining some of the more interesting foundational ideas such as fractals and neural networks. Instead, Bass is merely dropping clues as to how the world of finance actually works. Read between the lines, and one take is the Predictors dropoff point to either be cynical of all financial markets. But I think in a way his real point is that the business of prediction is messy and historically intertwined with everything from the history of the modern computing age and to the evolution of ever more abstract financial techniques that have lead us to bitcoin. That the Predictors would eventually make money ends up being besides the point.

3 people found this helpful

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Dennis Weber

Testimony of an achievement of the impossible!

Reviewed in the United States on January 26, 2000

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This book captures several components of a worthy story. It chronicles the pursuit by brilliant, seasoned, and spirited scientists to accomplish the seemingly impossible. It tells enough of their personal stories to make the pursuit interesting. It also includes enough technical detail to give the reader an idea of the complexity of their problem, and it gives an insight into the workings of the world's mysterious investment system.
I believe the book would be worthy for anyone interested in those components and I highly recommend it as a testimony to the determination, intelligence, and knowledge of some people who make their fortunes in the high tech world. My only slight disappointment was that the ending left some questions unanswered, such as what next!

3 people found this helpful

Helpful

Gary Dameron

A Great Read, but Read the "Prequel"

Reviewed in the United States on August 26, 2011

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I loved it enough to re-read, something rare for me. I plan to read it a couple more times. I even made a pilgrimage to the Santa Fe institute to see where these guys hang out.

It is set in a world of math, finance, brainiacs, and the great Southwest--all fun things!

It's a much better book than Bass' other book about these guys, "Eudamonic Pie." The big caveat is that I read Waldrip's "Complexity" first. I can't imagine the book being nearly as much fun without that background.

4 people found this helpful

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Kindle Customer

Wall Street and the rise of our Financial Economy

Reviewed in the United States on August 25, 2014

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Before Michael Lewis and his deserved bestseller Flash Boys, before the LTCM implosion in 1998 there were The Predictors. Gaining an understanding of modern financial markets and how our stock market currently works (or fails to work...) requires an understanding of how the Wall Street morality of "gaming the system," met the computer revolution. The Predictors is one important contribution to that understanding.

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Amazon Customer

The best part of the book is the challenges the founders ...

Reviewed in the United States on October 12, 2016

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Enjoyable account of scientists applying their knowledge to trading. The book is a little shallow, in terms of depth, since it neither describes the models or strategies in any detail nor gives much in the way of trading anecdotes. The best part of the book is the challenges the founders face as entrepreneurs-- raising capital and structuring a new business (compensation, responsibilities, juggling sales and modeling). Overall, an interesting read if you are in the industry, but probably a little slow for those who love Michael Lewis' work.

One person found this helpful

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Elias Guerrero

Book

Reviewed in the United States on May 3, 2020

Good book

Reviewed in the United States on November 26, 1999

Verified Purchase

Bass writes lucidly about science and the decidedly odd interface between Wall Streeters in Armani suits and Birkenstock-wearing science guys in the desert. An enjoyable, informative and entertaining read. His earlier work about the same crew and Vegas, Eudanomic Pie, is great too.

3 people found this helpful

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phil skirball

The Preidictors is a good book, easy read

Reviewed in the United States on August 27, 2016

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The Preidictors is a good book, easy read, entertaining but including enough detail to be interesting to the experienced trader. A bit light on the math and science behind the methodology, but that may be propietary and too technical for non math types anyway.

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jp

historique de cette aventure plus que contenu

Reviewed in France on March 13, 2017

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J'espérais plus de contenu technique, il ne s'agit que de la présentation romancée de cette expérience. L'intérêt réside toutefois dans l'énoncé des noms des différents protagonistes et lieux de travail: ceci permet d'autres recherches.

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