“If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything.’’
—Ronald Coase
This is a world famous economist. He would know.
Why good motive so dangerous? Only want to help!
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their conscience. —
C. S. Lewis
Moral arrogance is oppressive. Human free-will gives dignity. Therefore, more authority removes personal choice, the more destructive.
Why? Ignorance is infinite. Knowledge is scarce.
If ignorance so vast, what should be required?
“Highlighting unintended consequences is perhaps the greatest gift economics has given to humanity.’’
Why so rare to assume unintended results?
“There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one,” wrote French economist Frédéric Bastiat.
Only one?
“The bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.”
He explains: “Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.” Alas, the good economist has limited use in politics. Politicians tend to focus on the visible—the seen—since the unseen does little to help their prospects for reelection.’’
Bastiat still almost unknown. Not because proven wrong, but, because painfully correct!
What happened?
“The World Health Organization (WHO) favored a single, untested, apocalyptic model from Imperial College London. The United States government took its cues from the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. We now know these models were so wrong they were like shots in the dark. After a few months, even the press admitted as much. But by then vast damage had been done.’’
Models now known as painfully, sadly, completely wrong! Change decisions? Nope!
“As we’ll see, that’s not true. Whether we compare countries or U.S. states, the virus seemed indifferent to government-mandated lockdowns. Not only did the models exaggerate the danger, but our response to that danger, both voluntary and coerced, exacted great pain for little or no gain. That may sound baffling. How could a nationwide shutdown not stop or at least greatly slow a contagious virus? But as we’ll see, there is no evidence it did.’’
Evidence not same as conclusions. Observation must always be interpreted. Honestly. Sincerely. Carefully. Who does that?
Models are not data. Spreadsheets are not facts. Computers are not wise.
“But what of those experts? They treated predictive models—which are at best complex conjectures about future events—as if they were data. And then, when the models flopped, they began to massage the data. To get past this catastrophe we will need to forgive, but we should never forget. We should do whatever we can to dismantle such experts’ unchecked power over public policy.’’
Forgive. Never forget.
“These experts, however, could never have done so much damage without a gullible, self-righteous, and weaponized media that spread their projections far and wide. The press carpet-bombed the world with stories about impending shortages of hospital beds, ventilators, and emergency room capacity. They served up apocalyptic clickbait by the hour and the ton.’’
Social media important?
“In 2009, Twitter claimed 23.5 million users.8 By 2020, the platform had 330 million monthly and 145 million daily users. Instagram started in 2010, just after the swine flu pandemic. It quickly garnered 30 million users. By 2020, it had 1 billion monthly and 500 million daily users. Facebook had 350 million global users by the end of 2009, and by 2020 this had leapt to 1.69 billion. YouTube grew to more than 2 billion monthly users and 1 billion hours of content viewed daily by 2020.”
Yep, it’s overwhelming!
Fascinating example . . .
“History shows that you will rarely lose your job making predictions if you’re wrong in the right direction. On the other hand, you may well lose it if you’re right in the wrong direction. Neither rulers nor subjects welcome the bearer of bad, but true, news. (Especially if it’s bad news for power-grabbing elites.)
“I have been very jealous for the Lord, the God of hosts; for the people of Israel have forsaken thy covenant, thrown down thy altars, and slain thy prophets with the sword; and I, even I only, am left; and they seek my life, to take it away.”
“So complained the Prophet Elijah to God, when he was fleeing for his life from power-couple Ahab and Jezebel. Elijah predicted a drought: “Now Elijah said ‘As the Lord the God of Israel lives, before whom I stand, there shall be neither dew nor rain these years, except by my word.’ ”
Well . . . can prepare. Right?
“However right he was, no one wanted to hear what Elijah had to say. No one thanked him when the prophesied drought came to pass. Being wrong in the right direction, though, often reaps reward. Early pandemic models indicated that only prompt and massive state action could save us. The models were wrong—way off—but they were wrong in the right direction.’’
What’s the preferred way?
“They gave politicians justification for taking over almost every aspect of citizens’ lives. They gave the press clickbait galore. We’re not assuming malice here. We assume that many of these folks were moved by concern and even love for others. The issue is one of incentives and human nature, not bad intentions.’’
Authors even handed, but clear and persuasive.
Careful is good. Well . . . Who should be careful?
“Here’s where the precautionary principle gets twisted from “Don’t play God” to “trust me—I’m a god.” By sleight of hand, the experts become oracles: to doubt their advice is to take foolish risks. The experts become gods, and any mere mortal who questions them is therefore playing god. Only in this light could lockdowns cease to be risks that carry a burden of proof. Instead, the skeptics who doubt them must bear that burden. This inverted precautionary principle gives the experts license to imagine the worst-case scenario and then to agitate the government and the public to safeguard against this worst case. The mere chance that a disaster might happen is enough to justify any and all recommendations from the divine experts.’’
The loss of biblical trust replaced with trust in spreadsheets.
Writing tastes like good solid meal. Not hard to chew. But, may require some to adjust to new flavors. Some sweet, some spicy, some tart, some smooth, some crunchy — all nutritious!
Numerous charts and graphs. Persuasive and convincing.
Not an angry rant, nevertheless, a clear analytical presentation of multiple arguments. Confident without arrogance.
Hundreds and hundreds of notes with references (linked)
Tremendous scholarship!
Detailed index (linked)
Recommended!
(See also - “ Models.Behaving.Badly.: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life’’ by Emanuel Derman; “Escape from Democracy: The Role of Experts and the Public in Economic Policy” by David M. Levy, Sandra J. Pearl; “The Stupidity Paradox: The Power and Pitfalls of Functional Stupidity at Work” by Mats Alvesson; “The Tyranny of Metrics” by Jerry Z. Muller; “How Fear Works: Culture of Fear in the Twenty-First Century” by Frank Furedi)
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