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Pro Football Prospectus 2006: Statistics, Analysis, and Insight for the Information Age Paperback – August 1, 2006
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“Indispensable to fantasy football players and fans who simply want to dig into the real reasons teams play well.”
— The Washington Times (The Washington Times )
“Essential reading for fans who want more than clichés—Pro Football Prospectus tells you not just who will win, but why.”
—Ron Jaworski, ESPN (ESPN ) --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
“The most accurate insight into why teams really win and lose.”
— Jim Schwartz, Defensive Coordinator, Tennessee Titans --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
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Top Customer Reviews
`Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average' (DVOA) is the primary criterion - this compares specific plays, players and teams to the league average. Top players have DVOAs near 30% - Peyton Manning had a 41.7% DVOA in 2005 while Brett Favre's was 1.8%. DVOA skews negative for better defenses, so top defenses like the 2005 Bears approach a -30% DVOA. The authors also use 'Defensive-Adjusted Points Above Replacement' (DPAR) to measure a player's impact for an entire season. For example, if a player dominates in his first few games but then suffers a season ending injury, he is of little overall value to his team that season. Accordingly, he will have a high DVOA but a low DPAR. The introduction offers simple explanations of the complex statistical analysis, but the book can also be enjoyed without studying the authors' methodology.
The first half of the book contains an informative and entertaining write-up for each NFL franchise. These capsules are often supplemented with short essays like `Do NFL Teams Get Jet Lag' for the Oakland Raiders and `How Impressive are Adam Vinateri's Clutch Field Goals' for the New England Patriots. Each team's entry further lists statistics and analysis of the 2005 schedule, five-year trends, strategic tendencies, and rankings at all positions.
The book's second half includes expanded capsules for all individual quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and kickers. Each capsule lists both statistics for the past three years and a projection for 2006.
The last few pages show top 200 player rankings for Fantasy Football, my only resource for my low-intensity preparation for FF 2006. While the few grammatical and spelling errors are unfortunate, consideration must be given to the timeliness of the information and accompanying rush to printing. This book is an outstanding preseason resource and I plan to reference it often during the coming season. Very highly recommended for any NFL fan looking for more than the standard cliches from the major media outlets.
This book offers something no other football magazine or publication can offer. That is an objective, statistic based approach to solving not just what teams will win and what players will be productive, but WHY certain teams will win and WHY certain players will be productive.
The reason I say this book is not for the average football fan is because the average fan may find it too complicated and difficult to understand. Similar to the Baseball Prospectus, many of the statistics presented here are hard to grasp because they are new and some people won't want to take the time to learn how they work.
Note: Fantasy football players beware. Don't plan on relying on this book alone for your fantasy draft. Despite the small fantasy section in the back, the entire book is too complex to skim through for 30 minutes before the draft and succeed. Fantasy magazines are better for that. If you have the time though, reading the book and understanding the statistics just might be able to win the league for you.