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on April 17, 2013
There are some good books out there about the Korean peninsula written by professional journalists, historians, and policy wonks. The problem is that while they may be consumate professionals in their respective professions, few are what I'd consider real experts on North Korea. There are a handful that do fit this category, but these precious few seem hesitant to go on the record putting themselves out there to hypothesize and speculate about what may be going on now as well as what both the near and distant future may have in store. Andrei Lankov does just that in this new book.
While the main argument of the book is that North Korean leadership is not crazy, but coldly rational and entirely machiavellian, is getting most of the attention, this is old news to anyone relatively well read on the topic. In my opinion, this work's greatest contribution is the presentation of various scenarios for each stage of the inevitable collapse of the regime.
Just enough history is given in the early chapters of the book to give the reader the proper context for understanding the analysis and intel that soon follows. The problem with any North Korea analysis is that the country is so closed off that it can quickly turn into reading tea leaves. Lankov tackles this head-on by taking the reader by hand and explaining this very problem and going into detail as to why he reads the tea leaves the way he does. Lankov doesn't shy away from making predictions of which scenarios he believes are most likely, but he doesn't ignore the possibility that he might be wrong either. Thus, he also walks us through the other possible scenarios and what would happen if things turn out differently from what he expects.
A similar approach is taken in regards to analyzing how the other countries are dealing/should deal with North Korea. Finally, several reunification/reconstruction scenarios are given in the same manner. The author has the presence of mind to know that just because he has his favorite path, that's not necessarily the path that will be taken, so other models are not neglected.
This is now THE book I will recommend to friends and family that send me panicked emails asking me when I'm coming home every time NK tests a new rocket, or to anyone else interested in knowing what the future may have in store for the Korean peninsula.
While the main argument of the book is that North Korean leadership is not crazy, but coldly rational and entirely machiavellian, is getting most of the attention, this is old news to anyone relatively well read on the topic. In my opinion, this work's greatest contribution is the presentation of various scenarios for each stage of the inevitable collapse of the regime.
Just enough history is given in the early chapters of the book to give the reader the proper context for understanding the analysis and intel that soon follows. The problem with any North Korea analysis is that the country is so closed off that it can quickly turn into reading tea leaves. Lankov tackles this head-on by taking the reader by hand and explaining this very problem and going into detail as to why he reads the tea leaves the way he does. Lankov doesn't shy away from making predictions of which scenarios he believes are most likely, but he doesn't ignore the possibility that he might be wrong either. Thus, he also walks us through the other possible scenarios and what would happen if things turn out differently from what he expects.
A similar approach is taken in regards to analyzing how the other countries are dealing/should deal with North Korea. Finally, several reunification/reconstruction scenarios are given in the same manner. The author has the presence of mind to know that just because he has his favorite path, that's not necessarily the path that will be taken, so other models are not neglected.
This is now THE book I will recommend to friends and family that send me panicked emails asking me when I'm coming home every time NK tests a new rocket, or to anyone else interested in knowing what the future may have in store for the Korean peninsula.
on May 11, 2014
This is an excellent primer for those interested in knowing how North Korea came about and where the regime might end up. It is distinguished by clear writing and clear-headed thinking. The author's best-case scenario would have North Korea rid of the Kims and transitioning to a progressive dictatorship. Lankov, a Russian by birth who has lived in Pyongyang and now resides in Seoul, is not a fan of dictatorships, per se, but in his view a stage-by-stage political transition might avoid the worst consequences of a sudden unification for which the North Korean citizenry would be totally unprepared. The book won't tell you what's going on in the mind of Kim Jong Un but it makes a strong case for considering the regime as rational, rather than irrational, and capable of being second-guessed, up to a point.
on February 11, 2014
I had not previously read much about North Korea, so the amount of historical and current information on the country was interesting to explore. The topic is outlined well and the explanation of why the North Korean government acts as it does is clear enough. One problem I had with the book was that is seemed it was trying to be a scholarly/academic work, but it didn't quite achieve this-- perhaps because the writer inserts himself in the text (somewhat awkwardly) with personal anecdotes. Second criticism: the English translation was poor-- at times embarrassing for the publisher. Overall, if you want to be informed on North Korean history, politics, and current issues, it's not a bad book to read.
on July 18, 2017
Excellent read that doesn't follow the typical school of thinking and analysis about DPRK
on September 29, 2015
Most outside analyses of DPRK leave me nodding off. Lankov's book is refreshing while being informative, setting the right tone and interspersed with mini-stories and anecdotes that keep the book feeling modern and energized. The author's regional and ideological expertise and experience from growing up in the USSR and living a number of years in the DPRK are clearly evident. I highly recommend.
on December 7, 2014
It is a very factual well research book, good sharing and analysis on historical facts and stories using world wars events and North East Asia tension as a backdrop, we get to understand the relationship between DRPK and Russia, between DPRK and China. Andrei Lankov is an expert on DPRK, closely watching whats going on in the North and enable him to give accurately analysis on DPRK. He opened up a subject that to many seem so mysterious yet he was able to make it friendly readable and not burdened by history that could become bothersome. I recommend this book to any one love to know the real North Korea from the background of historical facts.
on April 11, 2013
To many of us, North Korea's recent behavior seems irrational. The younger Kim (like his father Kim Jong Il) is portrayed as a nuclear armed madman who threatens nuclear war against the US one day and then invites Dennis Rodman the next. Dr. Andrei Lankov's book explains the reason behind this seeming madness and provides an understanding of what is going on with North Korea.
Lankov is a top expert on North Korea. He currently lives in Seoul and teaches at Kookmin University but he had attended Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang and had a rare first-hand look at North Korea and its elites. His writings have always been insightful and educating and this book is up to par.
He explains the history of North Korea and how their dysfunctional economy has lead its leadership to resort to nuclear blackmail. He gives a sobering look at why they can not initiate Chinese-style reforms nor afford to give up their nuclear weapons without risking their own survival. The North Korean leaders can not afford to open their people to outside information, since the existence of a prosperous South Korea will destroy their legitimacy. This makes economic reforms patterned after China impossible and condemns their economy to rely upon foreign aid. They can not afford to relinquish their nuclear weapons, or give up their nuclear blackmail and provocations against South Korea because if they do so, they will lose control over the distribution of any aid and concessions donors provide. The Orwellian nightmare that the North Korean leadership has created is their only solution for survival.
The options for South Korea and the US are limited since no stick is big enough to scare them (as hardliners wish), and no carrot is sweet enough (as those who support dialog wish). Retaliation (military or diplomatic) will only lead to escalating brinksmanship. Attempts at dialog will lead to broken promises. These patterns have become familiar over the last decade and current crisis. Lankov shows that such patterns, however strange and difficult to understand, are actually rational and calculated moves that insure the survival of the Kim dynasty and the elites. For these elites, it is a matter of Machiavellian survival - they realize if they do not hang together, they will hang with their children from lamp-posts.
But in the long run, Lankov predicts that change will have to come to North Korea from the bottom-up. The underground economy of markets, private plots growing food, the unauthorized trade with China are growing and are a matter of survival for the non-elites of North Korea and even the lower levels of the party members. The nomenklatura can not control these markets or censor the information that is flowing in with Chinese consumer goods.
However, the road to liberation for the North Korean people will be long and difficult. While there is little South Korea, the US and the rest of the world can do to disarm North Korea's nukes, there is much that can be done to help ease the inevitable transition. Lankov's level-headed analysis teaches the rest of us what we can do about North Korea and what we can not. Hopefully, we will find the fortitude to live with what we can not change, the courage to change what we can and the wisdom to tell the difference.
Lankov is a top expert on North Korea. He currently lives in Seoul and teaches at Kookmin University but he had attended Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang and had a rare first-hand look at North Korea and its elites. His writings have always been insightful and educating and this book is up to par.
He explains the history of North Korea and how their dysfunctional economy has lead its leadership to resort to nuclear blackmail. He gives a sobering look at why they can not initiate Chinese-style reforms nor afford to give up their nuclear weapons without risking their own survival. The North Korean leaders can not afford to open their people to outside information, since the existence of a prosperous South Korea will destroy their legitimacy. This makes economic reforms patterned after China impossible and condemns their economy to rely upon foreign aid. They can not afford to relinquish their nuclear weapons, or give up their nuclear blackmail and provocations against South Korea because if they do so, they will lose control over the distribution of any aid and concessions donors provide. The Orwellian nightmare that the North Korean leadership has created is their only solution for survival.
The options for South Korea and the US are limited since no stick is big enough to scare them (as hardliners wish), and no carrot is sweet enough (as those who support dialog wish). Retaliation (military or diplomatic) will only lead to escalating brinksmanship. Attempts at dialog will lead to broken promises. These patterns have become familiar over the last decade and current crisis. Lankov shows that such patterns, however strange and difficult to understand, are actually rational and calculated moves that insure the survival of the Kim dynasty and the elites. For these elites, it is a matter of Machiavellian survival - they realize if they do not hang together, they will hang with their children from lamp-posts.
But in the long run, Lankov predicts that change will have to come to North Korea from the bottom-up. The underground economy of markets, private plots growing food, the unauthorized trade with China are growing and are a matter of survival for the non-elites of North Korea and even the lower levels of the party members. The nomenklatura can not control these markets or censor the information that is flowing in with Chinese consumer goods.
However, the road to liberation for the North Korean people will be long and difficult. While there is little South Korea, the US and the rest of the world can do to disarm North Korea's nukes, there is much that can be done to help ease the inevitable transition. Lankov's level-headed analysis teaches the rest of us what we can do about North Korea and what we can not. Hopefully, we will find the fortitude to live with what we can not change, the courage to change what we can and the wisdom to tell the difference.
on September 15, 2015
This is an amazing book. Very well written. Author really knows and has experienced his subject. No polemics here. Just a very honest history of the leaders and country. He does not hesitate to debunk some myths about the country. When you read this book you will feel like you really have a great feel for the country.
on June 15, 2014
This book provides a pragmatic and, at times, difficult to hear (for an American) perspective on North Korean history and the impending problems likely to develop from the unification process. That's what makes this book so powerful and a must read for anyone interested in the subject of North Korea. It challenges my traditional (think post WWII, US state department) view on this topic. I certainly don't always agree with Mr. Lankov on specific items but am happy to consider his overall thesis as a potential blueprint.
