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Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust Hardcover – September 10, 2019
| Ernest Davis (Author) Find all the books, read about the author, and more. See search results for this author |
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Despite the hype surrounding AI, creating an intelligence that rivals or exceeds human levels is far more complicated than we have been led to believe. Professors Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis have spent their careers at the forefront of AI research and have witnessed some of the greatest milestones in the field, but they argue that a computer beating a human in Jeopardy! does not signal that we are on the doorstep of fully autonomous cars or superintelligent machines. The achievements in the field thus far have occurred in closed systems with fixed sets of rules, and these approaches are too narrow to achieve genuine intelligence.
The real world, in contrast, is wildly complex and open-ended. How can we bridge this gap? What will the consequences be when we do? Taking inspiration from the human mind, Marcus and Davis explain what we need to advance AI to the next level, and suggest that if we are wise along the way, we won't need to worry about a future of machine overlords. If we focus on endowing machines with common sense and deep understanding, rather than simply focusing on statistical analysis and gatherine ever larger collections of data, we will be able to create an AI we can trust—in our homes, our cars, and our doctors' offices. Rebooting AI provides a lucid, clear-eyed assessment of the current science and offers an inspiring vision of how a new generation of AI can make our lives better.
- Print length288 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPantheon
- Publication dateSeptember 10, 2019
- Dimensions6.37 x 1.02 x 9.54 inches
- ISBN-101524748250
- ISBN-13978-1524748258
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Editorial Reviews
Review
—Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and the author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought
“Finally, a book that tells us what AI is, what AI is not, and what AI could become if only we are ambitious and creative enough. No matter how smart and useful our intelligent machines are today, they don’t know what really matters. Rebooting AI dares to imagine machine minds that goes far beyond the closed systems of games and movie recommendations to become real partners in every aspect of our lives.”
—Garry Kasparov, Former World Chess Champion and author of Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins
“Finally, a book that says aloud what so many AI experts are really thinking. Every CEO should read it, and everyone else at the company, too. Then they’ll be able to separate the AI wheat from the chaff, and know where we are, how far we have to go, and how to get there.”
—Pedro Domingos, Professor of computer science at the University of Washington and author of The Master Algorithm
“A welcome antidote to the hype that has engulfed AI over the past decade and a realistic look at how far AI and robotics still have to go.”
—Rodney Brooks, former director of the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
“AI is achieving superhuman performance in many narrow applications, but the reality is that we are still very far from artificial general intelligence that truly understands the world. Marcus and Davis explain the pitfalls of current approaches with humor and insight, and provide a compelling path toward the kind of robust AI that can earn our trust.”
—Erik Brynjolfsson, Professor at MIT and co-author of The Second Machine Age and Machine | Platform | Crowd
“Rebooting AI is a blast to read. It's erudite, it's witty, and it neatly unpacks why today's AI has such trouble doing truly smart tasks—and what it'll take to reach that goal.”
—Clive Thompson, Wired magazine columnist and author of Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World
“Will machines overtake humans in the foreseeable future, or is it just hype? Marcus and Davis lay out their answer with elegant prose and a sure quill, drawing the distinction between today’s deep-learning based narrow, brittle artificial “intelligence” and the ever-elusive artificial general intelligence. Common sense and trust, which are intrinsically human, emerge as grand challenges for the field. If you plan to read one book to keep up with AI—this is an outstanding choice!”
—Oren Etzioni, CEO of Allen institute for AI & Professor of computer science at University of Washington.
“Artificial intelligence is here to stay. What are its achievements, its prospects, its pitfalls and misdirected initiatives—and how might these be remedied and overcome? This lucid and deeply informed account, from a critical but sympathetic perspective, is a valuable guide to developments that will surely have a major impact on the social order and intellectual culture.”
—Noam Chomsky
“When I was a child I saw 2001: A Space Odyssey and then read everything I could about AI. All the smart people said it was twenty years away. Twenty years later I was an adult and the smart people said that AI was twenty years away. Twenty years after that we passed 2001 and the smart people said it was about twenty years away. Yup, it’s getting better and better, but it still ain’t HAL. It can tag photos pretty good but on understanding stories my son passed all the AI before he went to his stupid preschool. Now is the time to listen to smarter people: in Rebooting AI, Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis do a great job separating truth from bullshit to understand why we might not have real A.I. in twenty years and what we can do to get way closer.”
—Penn Jillette, Emmy-winning magician and actor and New York Times best-belling author
“A must-read for anyone who cares about the future of artificial intelligence, filled with masterful storytelling and clear and easy-to-digest examples. Simultaneously puncturing hype and plotting a new course towards toward truly successful AI, Rebooting AI offers the first rational look at what AI can and can’t do, and what it will take to build AI that we can genuinely trust. And it does it in a way that engages the reader and ultimately celebrates both what AI has accomplished and the strengths and power of the human mind.”
—Annie Duke, best-selling author of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
About the Author
ERNEST DAVIS is a professor of computer science at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Science, New York University. One of the world's leading scientists on commonsense reasoning for artificial intelligence, he is the author of four books, including Representations of Commonsense Knowledge and Verses for the Information Age.
Learn more about the authors and their work at rebooting.ai.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
MIND THE GAP
Since its earliest days, artificial intelligence has been long on promise, short on delivery. In the 1950s and 1960s, pioneers like Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy, and Herb Simon genuinely believed that AI could be solved before the end of the twentieth century. “Within a generation,” Marvin Minsky famously wrote, in 1967, “the problem of artificial intelligence will be substantially solved.” Fifty years later, those promises still haven’t been fulfilled, but they have never stopped coming. In 2002, the futurist Ray Kurzweil made a public bet that AI would “surpass native human intelligence” by 2029. In November 2018 Ilya Sutskever, co-founder of OpenAI, a major AI research institute, suggested that “near term AGI [artificial general intelligence] should be taken seriously as a possibility.” Although it is still theoretically possible that Kurzweil and Sutskever might turn out to be right, the odds against this happening are very long. Getting to that level—general-purpose artificial intelligence with the flexibility of human intelligence—isn’t some small step from where we are now; instead it will require an immense amount of foundational progress—not just more of the same sort of thing that’s been accomplished in the last few years, but, as we will show, something entirely different.
Even if not everyone is as bullish as Kurzweil and Sutskever, ambitious promises still remain common, for everything from medicine to driverless cars. More often than not, what is promised doesn’t materialize. In 2012, for example, we heard a lot about how we would be seeing “autonomous cars [in] the near future.” In 2016, IBM claimed that Watson, the AI system that won at Jeopardy!, would “revolutionize healthcare,” stating that Watson Health’s “cognitive systems [could] understand, reason, learn, and interact” and that “with [recent advances in] cognitive computing . . . we can achieve more than we ever thought possible.” IBM aimed to address problems ranging from pharmacology to radiology to cancer diagnosis and treatment, using Watson to read the medical literature and make recommendations that human doctors would miss. At the same time, Geoffrey Hinton, one of AI’s most prominent researchers, said that “it is quite obvious we should stop training radiologists.”
In 2015 Facebook launched its ambitious and widely covered project known simply as M, a chatbot that was supposed to be able to cater to your every need, from making dinner reservations to planning your next vacation.
As yet, none of this has come to pass. Autonomous vehicles may someday be safe and ubiquitous, and chatbots that can cater to every need may someday become commonplace; so too might superintelligent robotic doctors. But for now, all this remains fantasy, not fact.
The driverless cars that do exist are still primarily restricted to highway situations with human drivers required as a safety backup, because the software is too unreliable. In 2017, John Krafcik, CEO at Waymo, a Google spinoff that has been working on driverless cars for nearly a decade, boasted that Waymo would shortly have driverless cars with no safety drivers. It didn’t happen. A year later, as Wired put it, the bravado was gone, but the safety drivers weren’t. Nobody really thinks that driverless cars are ready to drive fully on their own in cities or in bad weather, and early optimism has been replaced by widespread recognition that we are at least a decade away from that point—and quite possibly more.
IBM Watson’s transition to health care similarly has lost steam. In 2017, MD Anderson Cancer Center shelved its oncology collaboration with IBM. More recently it was reported that some of Watson’s recommendations were “unsafe and incorrect.” A 2016 project to use Watson for the diagnosis of rare diseases at the Marburg, Germany, Center for Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases was shelved less than two years later, because “the performance was unacceptable.” In one case, for instance, when told that a patient was suffering from chest pain, the system missed diagnoses that would have been obvious even to a first year medical student, such as heart attack, angina, and torn aorta. Not long after Watson’s troubles started to become clear, Facebook’s M was quietly canceled, just three years after it was announced.
Despite this history of missed milestones, the rhetoric about AI remains almost messianic. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, has proclaimed that AI would solve climate change, poverty, war, and cancer. XPRIZE founder Peter Diamandis made similar claims in his book Abundance, arguing that strong AI (when it comes) is “definitely going to rocket us up the Abundance pyramid.” In early 2018, Google CEO Sundar Pichai claimed that “AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on . . . more profound than . . . electricity or fire.” (Less than a year later, Google was forced to admit in a note to investors that products and services “that incorporate or utilize artificial intelligence and machine learning, can raise new or exacerbate existing ethical, technological, legal, and other challenges.”)
Others agonize about the potential dangers of AI, often in ways that show a similar disconnect from current reality. One recent nonfiction bestseller by the Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom grappled with the prospect of superintelligence taking over the world, as if that were a serious threat in the foreseeable future. In the pages of The Atlantic, Henry Kissinger speculated that the risk of AI might be so profound that “human history might go the way of the Incas, faced with a Spanish culture incomprehensible and even awe-inspiring to them.” Elon Musk has warned that working on AI is “summoning the demon” and a danger “worse than nukes,” and the late Stephen Hawking warned that AI could be “the worst event in the history of our civilization.”
But what AI, exactly, are they talking about? Back in the real world, current-day robots struggle to turn doorknobs, and Teslas driven in “Autopilot” mode keep rear-ending parked emergency vehicles (at least four times in 2018 alone). It’s as if people in the fourteenth century were worrying about traffic accidents, when good hygiene might have been a whole lot more helpful.
[ . . . ]
Product details
- Publisher : Pantheon; Illustrated edition (September 10, 2019)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 288 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1524748250
- ISBN-13 : 978-1524748258
- Item Weight : 1.4 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.37 x 1.02 x 9.54 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #477,177 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #220 in Robotics (Books)
- #326 in Robotics & Automation (Books)
- #572 in Computers & Technology Industry
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Here is a chapter by chapter breakdown. Chapter 1 does an excellent job of laying out the basic argument, that today's AI systems are narrow and only by moving beyond the big data/statistical learning focus of much of today's work will we achieve flexible AI systems. The discussion of overattribution, illusory progress, and the robustness gap are especially useful for understanding the difference between what often gets reported versus where the state of the art is. Demonstrations and laboratory experiments are (hopefully) on the path to robust technologies, but the distance is often not clear to outsiders. Chapter 2 explains why the problems with today's AI technologies matters, focusing mostly on bias found in machine learning systems.
Chapter 3 dissects deep learning, which is the revolution in AI that everyone knows about, due both to real progress but also media attention. (There are two others, as noted below.) They provide a non-technical overview of neural networks and deep learning, and point out both their strengths and weaknesses in a balanced way. Many who only read popular press accounts of deep learning will find the examples and arguments about brittleness surprising, but the phenomena are quite replicable. My only fault with Chapter 3 is that the picture it paints of modern AI is a bit oversimplified, even for this level of discussion. There are two other revolutions in AI. The first is knowledge graphs, where structured, relational representations straight out of the classic AI playbook have been applied to many tasks (mostly via semantic web technologies), and at industrial scale. Google and Microsoft both use billion-fact knowledge graphs in their search engines and other products, for example, and the technology is spreading quickly (even Spotify has its own knowledge graph). The second is high-performance reasoning systems, where satisfiability solvers are part of the constraint solvers used every day by logistics companies and other industrial concerns for planning and scheduling. (Marcus and Davis do bring up one line of this revolution, model checking, on page 187). I can see why, rhetorically, focusing only on deep learning makes sense for them, it simplifies the main argument considerably. On the other hand, these other two revolutions lend credence to their call for revisiting ideas from classical AI. A common claim by neural network modelers has always been that symbolic representations and reasoning over them cannot scale, but the same rising tide of massive data and computation that lifted deep learning has also lifted work in knowledge representation and reasoning, although these are not receiving the same attention that deep learning is. So to my mind, these other revolutions make the approach argued for in Chapter 7 even stronger.
Chapters 4 and 5 dissect the state of the art in machine reading and robotics, two areas where there is an astonishing amount of hype. Their examples do an excellent job of pointing out what can and cannot be done today, and just how far we are from systems that can read as humans do, or operate in the physical world the way we do.
Chapters 6 and 7 chart their alternate course. Chapter 6 provides a capsule summary of the kinds of insights that AI could be taking from other areas of cognitive science. It is a sad comment on the current state of AI education that many of the eleven hard-won insights listed here will be news to many of today's graduate students and even some AI practitioners. Chapter 7 sketches some ideas about common sense. They carefully walk readers through some basic ideas about knowledge representation, to get across some of the pitfalls as well as the power, and argue that time, space, and causality are the three key areas to focus on. As with Chapter 3, so much more could be said -- and Davis has written an excellent book about this, albeit for a technical audience -- but the key thing is, you will come out of this chapter with a good sense of the overall approach.
Chapter 8 is about trust, and its relationship with good engineering practices. They do a fine job at outlining basics of software development that are relevant to understanding how people build safe and reliable software. Their handling of ethical questions is very sensible.
To summarize: This is an excellent non-technical book which debunks hype about AI while pointing out both real progress and the daunting open questions that remain on the road to understanding how to build intelligent systems with human-like flexibility and breadth. If you are interested in AI, or its possible impacts, you should read it.
What Gary and Ernest do well is to not to leave readers without a possible solution. Sure, they take a critical appraisal of deep learning and how limited it is in practical use cases. But they also offer a path and possible research areas where "AI" may be better realized. However, it is going to be long and hard, and general AI seems unlikely to happen in our lifetimes.
They argue for opening up the field by integrating principles of human cognition into AI development. To achieve any level of breakthrough from where we are today, we need machines that have a working model of the world they operate in, the ability to generalize, and a database of real world experiences to draw on in order to adapt to and integrate new information. They’d also toss in a healthy dose of common sense. Until a domestic robot or driverless car can sort out the world the way a human brain can, they won’t be trustworthy enough (accurate, reliable, safe, ethical) to cede control to them.
Marcus and Peters believe we’re far away from this type of robust AI, and getting there won’t be easy or cheap.
Although they worry about the potential dystopian outcomes AI might generate in automation, finance, content delivery, politics and surveillance, they are cautiously optimistic over the long term. Whether the long term is ten years or ten thousand, they don’t say.
Rebooting AI is accessible, well-researched and understandable by the non-technical. Recommended as an antidote to both the hype and the doomsaying among the popular press.
Basically, I found this book because at work I ran in to a couple of the current fundamental problems of deep learning. One, deep learning struggles to adapt with a low number of human-labeled examples. Two, deep learning also struggles to adapt when the distribution of the input shifts or the task changes.
I was poring through recent deep learning research papers attempting to solve these problems, and I found that I was mostly unsatisfied by their results and the directions that they were going.
I think, at the time of this writing, AI is often conflated with deep learning, and after reading this book I have a greater appreciation about the broader scope of AI, both in its problem and solution space. We have a long way to go in creating truly intelligent systems.
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This is not to say Marcus and Davis don’t have a point. They have and a good one indeed: the current cure-all in AI, Deep Learning, might be practically useful but is also clearly a dead end towards artificial “deep understanding” and trustworthy systems. This could have been laid out in a journal article though, it might not have needed a whole book.
If you’re new to the topic of AI and just have a general interest, this book could be for you. If you are an enthusiast already and want to widen your horizon it probably won’t do the job.
Insgesamt eine spannende Lektüre, die ich jedem AI-Interessierten ohne Einschränkung empfehlen kann.
Today's AI system are quite "dumb" in its understanding of the world and work well in a very narrow set of environments like a chess or go game which are essentially limited by the number of cells in the environment. The computer which mastered GO games had to play over 30 million events to master the game and when the scope of game was even slightly altered it went back to square one.
Gary Marcus thus argues that AI system need to robust and resilient to manage everyday task. They argue AI needs to pick up a different direction which is not based on "huge data processing" but rather learning with unsupervised and unstructured data set .
The book is also in a way a celebration of human (thus all living beings) brain which quite unique in its ability to operate under a variety of circumstance with very little training
The rhetoric existing in publications, announcements of new products, developments or research has messianic dyes according to G. Marcus. The problem is that the industry exaggerate the announcements, capabilities, functionalities and possibilities of AI. The truth is that the current AI has a very short and reduced scope. The tasks AI can do are very specific, within a delimited domain. The present AI is a kind of digital idiot savant, very capable in pattern detection but with zero understanding. AI cannot deal with a real world that is open, and that is not limited in specific contexts.
The book argues extensively and with many examples that Deep Learning is not the panacea to AI in the long term. Deep Learning has many limitations and it is not foreseeable that in the future it cannot be a solution to achieve strong AI. AI can only work with a large amount of data to learn and statistical algorithms to identify patterns. This restraint is becoming increasingly evident. G. Marcus proposes that you need to use cognitive architectures, using the concepts and research of classical AI, cognitive psychology and neurosciences.
G. Marcus details throughout the book, the difficulties of AI in linguistics and natural understanding of language. The examples are profuse, and sometimes repetitive. With just one example, it would be enough to capture the idea. Although the book is for the general people reading, I consider that some sections are a bit hard and repetitive, explaining the cognitive processes and semantic analysis of texts that are required for AI.
G. Marcus's summary and proposal to the current limitations of AI is that AI requires to use complex computational cognitive models and not just neural networks with pattern detection. Although G. Markus refers to several books and publications related to the subject, it seems to me that it would have been good to talk about research and advances in Computational Psychology (for example: The Cambridge Handbook of Computational Psychology). G. Markus says that we need a new generation of AI researchers who know well and appreciate classical AI, machine learning and computer science more broadly, and take advantage of AI's historical knowledge base.
AI must evolve and reboot going from just recognizing patterns without understanding, to an understanding of what it perceives, to have common sense and to deal with causality. AI is, in general, on the wrong path, with limited intelligence for just narrow tasks, learned with big data and without deep understanding. G. Markus's proposal is to achieve an AI that has a) common sense, b) cognitive models, and c) reasoning.
However given the AI current limitation is worth to consider that AI is increasingly playing an important role that impact our daily lives, in the social, political, industrial, health and commercial realms. Undoubtedly AI is deeply transforming how we purchase, decide, socialize and care our health.
I think . REBOOTING AI is a good book that provides a critical review of the current development of AI. It provides a contrasting view of AI's current hype.











