Other Sellers on Amazon
& FREE Shipping
98% positive over last 12 months
FREE Shipping
100% positive over last 12 months
Download the free Kindle app and start reading Kindle books instantly on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. Learn more
Read instantly on your browser with Kindle for Web.
Using your mobile phone camera - scan the code below and download the Kindle app.
The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World, 60) Hardcover – Illustrated, January 12, 2016
| Price | New from | Used from |
|
Audible Audiobook, Unabridged
"Please retry" |
$0.00
| Free with your Audible trial | |
|
MP3 CD, Audiobook, MP3 Audio, Unabridged
"Please retry" | $17.44 | — |
Explore your book, then jump right back to where you left off with Page Flip.
View high quality images that let you zoom in to take a closer look.
Enjoy features only possible in digital – start reading right away, carry your library with you, adjust the font, create shareable notes and highlights, and more.
Discover additional details about the events, people, and places in your book, with Wikipedia integration.
Enhance your purchase
How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat
In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.
- Print length784 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPrinceton University Press
- Publication dateJanuary 12, 2016
- Dimensions6.3 x 2.2 x 9.4 inches
- ISBN-100691147728
- ISBN-13978-0691147727
Frequently bought together

- +
Customers who viewed this item also viewed
Editorial Reviews
Review
"Winner of the 2017 Excellence in Financial Journalism Book Award, New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants"
"A New York Times Bestseller"
"One of the Strategy+Business Best Business Books 2016 in Economy"
"#36 on Bloomberg’s "50 Most Influential" List 2016"
"One of Bloomberg’s Best Books of 2016"
"One of Financial Times (FT.com) Best Economics Books of 2016"
"One of The Economist’s Economics and Business Books of the Year 2016"
"One of Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Books of 2016 in History"
"One of Bloomberg View’s “Five Books to Change Conservatives’ Minds,” chosen by Cass Sunstein"
"One of Bloomberg View’s Great History Books of 2016"
"One of The New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2016"
"One of The Wall Street Journal’s “The 20 Books That Defined Our Year” 2016"
"One of Foreign Affairs’ Editors’ Picks 2016"
"One of the Washington Post’s Best Economics Books 2016"
"One of The NewYorker.com Page-Turner blog’s “The Books We Loved in 2016”"
"Shortlisted for the 2016 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award"
"Longlisted for the 2016 Cundill Prize in Historical Literature, McGill University"
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth . . . is the Thomas Piketty-esque economic must read of the year."---Rana Foroohar, Time
"This is a book well worth reading--a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. . . . [The Rise and Fall of American Growth] will challenge your views about the future; [and] it will definitely transform how you see the past."---Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review
"[An] authoritative examination of innovation through the ages."---Neil Irwin, New York Times
"Robert Gordon has written a magnificent book on the economic history of the United States over the last one and a half centuries. . . . The book is without peer in providing a statistical analysis of the uneven pace of growth and technological change, in describing the technologies that led to the remarkable progress during the special century, and in concluding with a provocative hypothesis that the future is unlikely to bring anything approaching the economic gains of the earlier period. . . . If you want to understand our history and the economic dilemmas faced by the nation today, you can spend many a fruitful hour reading Gordon's landmark study."---William D. Nordhaus, New York Review of Books
"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is full of wonder for the miraculous things that America has accomplished."---Edward Glaeser, Wall Street Journal
"Mr. Gordon uses exhaustive historic data to buttress his thesis."---Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal
"A masterful study to be read and reread by anyone interested in today's political economy." ― Kirkus
"Normally, these kinds of big-think books end with a whimper, as the author totally fails to identify solutions to the problem he is writing about. But Gordon's conclusion offers some admirably definitive policy advice."---Matthew Yglesias, Vox
"Magnificent. . . . Gordon presents his case. . . with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data. . . . Even if history changes direction. . . this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism." ― Economist
"Every presidential candidate should be asked what policies he or she would offer to increase the pace of U.S. productivity growth and to narrow the widening gap between winners and losers in the economy. Bob Gordon's list is a good place to start."---David Wessel, WSJ.com's, Think Tank
"[W]hat may be the year's most important book on economics has already been published. . . . What Gordon has provided is not a rejection of technology but a sobering reminder of its limits."---Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
"Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is an extraordinary work of economic scholarship. . . . Moreover, this is one of the rare economics books that is on the one hand deeply analytical . . . And on the other a pleasure to read. . . . [A] landmark work."---Lawrence Summers, Prospect
"Ambitious. . . . The hefty tome, minutely detailed yet dauntingly broad in scope, offers a lively portrayal of the evolution of American living standards since the Civil War."---Eduardo Porter, New York Times
"Two years ago a huge book on economics took the world by storm. Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century . . . became a surprise bestseller. . . . Robert Gordon's tome on American economic growth stretches to 768 pages and its central message is arguably more important."---David Smith, Sunday Times
"A landmark new book."---Gavin Kelly, The Guardian
"Looking ahead, judging presidents by policies rather than outcomes may be all the more important. In a new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the economist Robert Gordon argues that we are in the midst of an era of meager technological change. Yes, we now have smartphones and Twitter, but previous generations introduced electric lighting, indoor plumbing and the internal combustion engine. In Mr. Gordon's view, technological change is just not what it used to be, and we had better get used to slower growth in productivity and incomes."---N. Gregory Mankiw, New York Times
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is likely to be the most interesting and important economics book of the year. It provides a splendid analytic take on the potency of past economic growth, which transformed the world from the end of the nineteenth century onward. . . . Gordon's book serves as a powerful reminder that the U.S. economy really has gone through a protracted slowdown and that this decline has been caused by the stagnation in technological progress."---Tyler Cowen, Foreign Affairs
"[A]n important new book."---Martin Ford, Huffington Post
"[A] lightning bolt of a new book."---Harold Meyerson, The American Prospect
"So powerful and intriguing are the facts and arguments marshaled by Gordon that even informed critics who think he is wrong recommend that readers plow through his The Rise and Fall of American Growth, with its 60 graphics and 64 tables spread over more than 700 pages. You don't need to be an economist to appreciate or understand the book. His thesis is straightforward."---David Cay Johnston, Al Jazeera America.com
"What is novel about Gordon's approach to this problem is that he doesn't try to find political causes for our economic woes. . . . [E]xhaustive and sweeping in scope, and novel in its thinking about growth."---Chris Matthews, Fortune.com
"[A] fascinating new book."---Jeffrey Sachs, Boston Globe
"One of the most important books of recent years. . . . Powerful and impressive."---Cass R. Sunstein, Bloomberg View
"This is a tremendous, sobering piece of research, which does a lot to explain the febrile, nervous state of modern Western democracies."---Marcus Tanner, The Independent
"A new book by economist Robert Gordon--The Rise and Fall of American Growth--is causing quite a stir." ― City A.M.
"If he's right, and one links this with growing income inequality, our would-be leaders will have difficulty in making the case for achieving the American dream through steady incremental progress achieved through collaboration and political compromise."---Michael Hoffmann, Desert Sun
"Robert Gordon's new book on productivity in the U.S. economy, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, is masterful. . . . Gordon skillfully lays out myriad information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal."---Edward Lotterman, St. Paul Pioneer Press
"[I]mpressive."---Peter Martin, Sydney Morning Herald
"In his unsettling new book, Gordon, who teaches at Northwestern, weighs in on the role of technology in the U.S. over the past century-and-a-half. He does so forcefully, so forcefully, in fact, as to wipe the smiles off the faces of most techno-optimists, myself included."---Peter A. Coclanis, Charlotte Observer
"[A] thoughtful new book."---David D. Haynes, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is this year's equivalent to Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century: an essential read for all economists, who are unanimously floored by its boldness and scope even if they don't agree with its conclusions."---Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine
"Gordon makes a compelling case for why the era of fast growth in America ended around 1970 and will not return in the foreseeable future, if ever."---Dick Meyer, DecodeDC
"Gordon argues that we are not going to get another surge soon and that there are several headwinds that are going to work against faster growth, including income inequality, education as a differentiator and not an equalizer, the debt overhang, and demography."---John Mason, TheStreet.com
"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] challenges every political claim, and every pundit's remedy, regarding how to get the lackluster American economy to boom again in the decades ahead, as it once did a half-century or more ago. . . . [The book] represents the culmination of Gordon's many years of investigation into this key economic question of our age, namely: ‘Why is it that the American economy has never been able to return to the happy boom years of our grandparents' time?' Why is it that, decade after decade, administration after administration, annualized productivity growth has only been about one-half to one-third that of the age of Truman and Eisenhower?"---Paul Kennedy, Tribune Content Agency
"[M]asterful. . . . Gordon skillfully lays out information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal. . . . The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a rare example of a work with solid economics that can be understood, and enjoyed, by nearly any lay person."---Ed Lotterman, Idaho Statesman
"As an economic historian, Gordon is beyond reproach."---Edward Luce, Financial Times
"Provocative." ― Associated Press
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth, is a deep dive into the past with an eye to the future. . . . [The book] is part of a fascinating debate about future prospects for the American economy."---Knowledge@Wharton
"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] has set the wonky world of economics aflame."---Ryan Craig, TechCrunch
"Magisterial."---John Kay, Financial Times
"[A] contentious new book."---Margaret Wente, The Globe & Mail
"[A] fabulous new book. . . . [I]mpressive."---Dr. Mike Walden, Morganton News Herald
"Northwestern Bob Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, offers a deeper explanation for the underlying mechanics behind slowed economic growth."---Jon Hartley, Forbes.com
"So much of what the presidential candidates and the American people want to accomplish over the next four years and beyond depends on the U.S. economy growing faster, and more inclusively, than it has in recent years. This year's hot economics book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by one of America's most distinguished macroeconomists, Robert Gordon, casts a pall on whether this is possible, arguing that the U.S. had a golden century of increasing innovation from roughly 1870 to 1970, but this was unique."---Robert Litan, Fortune.com
"Gordon's book offers the definitive account of how the many technological innovations between 1870 and 1940 dramatically improved life in the United States."---Richard A. Epstein, Hoover Institution's Defining Ideas
"[M]agiserial. . . . The Northwestern University professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the American way of life was largely a one-time deal."---Matt Phillips, Quartz
"Robert Gordon's new book The Rise and Fall of American Growth has taken the economics world by storm this winter."---Myles Udland, Business Insider
"[M]assive."---Ben Casselman, FiveThirty Eight
"[G]roundbreaking."---Zeeshan Aleem, Mic
"With a painstaking--and fascinating--historical analysis of American productivity, [Gordon] argues that the innovations of today pale in comparison to earlier in our history and that we might actually be entering a period of prolonged stagnation. He may very well be right."---Greg Satell, Forbes.com
"[P]rovocative."---Barrie McKenna, The Globe & Mail
"[I]nfluential."---Martin Neil Baily, Fortune.com
"[A] stimulating book."---George Will, Washington Post
"Compulsive reading."---Andrew Hilton, Financial World
"Gordon is not an alarmist, far from it. His is a sober voice of concern, of caution, which needs to be heard by those in the helm in America. And a fascinating lesson for ambitious and growing countries like India."---Dr R Balashankar, Sunday Guardian
"[A] fascinating convergence of green and mainstream thought."---Tom Horton, Chesapeake Bay Journal
"[T]his panoramic book makes good reading."---Shane Greenstein, Harvard Magazine
"The book's great contribution is the tapestry it weaves of all the innovations that changed most Americans' lives beyond recognition in the century from 1870 to 1970."---Martin Sandbu, Financial Times
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is unquestionably an important book that raises fundamental questions about the United States' economy and society." ― New Criterion
"[A] masterpiece."---Martin Wolf, Financial Times
"[An] impressive book. . . . Gordon's book provides sufficient ammunition to show the colossal problems facing capitalism." ― Socialism Today
"Rich with detailed information, meticulous observations, and even anecdotes and stories . . . a fascinating read."---Ricardo F. Levi, Corriere della Sera
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is essential reading for anyone interested in economics." ― Choice
"In an important new book, economist Robert Gordon makes the case for pessimism. He believes that technologies like smartphones, robots, and artificial intelligence aren't going to have the kind of big impact on the economy that earlier inventions--like the internal combustion engine and electricity--did."---Timothy B. Lee, Vox
"Robert Gordon has written an engaging economic-based history of America. . . . Gordon is to be commended for helping to stimulate a national debate on the current low level of economic productivity."---Allan Hauer, Innovation: The Journal of Technology & Commercialization
"If you want to see how far we have come and how tough life was a century and a half ago, read Gordon's book."---David R. Henderson, Regulation
"A fantastic read."---Bill Gates, GatesNotes
"The book is well written, and one can only be in awe of Gordon's mastery of the factual history of the American standard of living."---Robert A. Margo, EH.net
"Monumental."---John Cassidy, NewYorker.com
"Zeitgeist-defining."---Myles Udland, Business Insider
"[A] magisterial treatise."---Nick Gillespie, Reason.com
"[A]n essential read for anyone interested not only in US economic history but also American economic prospects . . . a tremendous achievement."---Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist
"A comprehensive history of American economic growth."---Eric Rauchway, American Prospect
"Professor Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history."---Wendell Cox, New Geography
"A wonderful new book."---Jeff Sachs, Boston Globe
"The most important economics book of 2016."---Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune
"This spectacular history traces the rise and the plateau of the American economy since industrialization."---Jay Weiser, Weekly Standard
"[A] landmark book. . . . An impressive history of how the American people progressed in their standards of living and productivity in the ‘golden century' of 1870-1970."---Stephen M. Millett, Strategy & Leadership
"Gordon's encyclopedic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, a new history of modern U.S. economic life, [is] perhaps the best yet written."---Jonathan Levy, Dissent
"One of our greatest economic historians. . . . Gordon's exhaustive research program . . . has knocked me back on my intellectual heels."---J. Bradford DeLong, Strategy + Business
"This is the most important book on economics in many years."---Martin Wolf, Financial Times
"Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism."---Lorien Kite, Financial Times
"In the course of Gordon's book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents lived it emerges. . . . What lingers in my mind, alongside these ideas, is a new, weightier sense of the past, and of what the people who lived in it ate, touched, heard, saw, and did. Reading The Rise and Fall of American Growth, I thought a lot about my grandparents. Gordon's book has made their lives more real to me."---Joshua Rothman, NewYorker.com's, Page-Turner
"Magisterial. . . . While the book has gotten attention because of its bold projection of slow growth in the future, this is actually just one small element of a magnificent and detailed presentation of how our economy has changed since 1870. Most people don't fully appreciate what life was like in the past and Gordon gives a blow-by-blow description of how people lived in America from 1870 on. In addition, he carefully explains how each new innovation was created and how its adoption changed people's lives."---Stephen Rose, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas
"Gordon constructs a strong case using conventional economic principles and exacting data measurement."---Don Pittis, CBC News
"Gordon's genius is to weave together economic history with the story of the technology, know-how, politic, demographics and medicine that made the astonishing progress of the US perhaps the most remarkable ever."---Sean O'Grady, The Independent
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert Gordon, is that rarest thing: a work of densely researched macroeconomics that is compulsively readable."---Bill Morris, The Millions
"The author's method has the merit of being straightforward as well as robust. . . . The carefully woven tapestry offered by Rise and Fall leaves no corner in the shade."---Jean-Pierre Dormois, La Vie des Idees
""Based on an impressive range of quantitative data and literature . . . its approach to the concept of the standard of living is innovative."---Simone Selva, Economic History Review
"A great achievement of synthesis . . . presents a fascinating and provocative thesis."---Walter Friedman, American Historical Review
"Authoritative. . . . The book puts anyone who argues that sluggish growth is not the new normal on the defensive. He or she needs to argue against not just the evidence of continuing modest productivity growth but also against Gordon’s compelling narrative."---John G. Fernald, National Association for Business Economics
Review
"A towering achievement that will utterly transform the debate on U.S. productivity and growth. Robert Gordon chronicles the stunning swiftness with which American lives have advanced since 1870, and raises profound questions about whether we have benefitted from one-offs that cannot be repeated. Combining eloquent description with forceful and clear economic analysis, Gordon's voice is gripping and compelling. This is economic history at its best."―Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a tour de force with an immensely important bottom line. It is packed, page after page, with insights and facts that every reader will find fascinating and new. A profound book that also happens to be a marvelous read."―George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics
"Keynes dismissed concerns about economic trends by remarking that in the long run, we are all dead. Gordon turns this upside down by reminding us that we inherited somebody else's long run. If you care about the legacy we will leave future generations, read this richly detailed account of America's amazing century of growth."―Paul Romer, New York University
"Robert Gordon has written the book on wealth―how Americans made it and enjoyed it in the past. If we're going to create more wealth in the future instead of arguing about dividing a shrinking pie, we have to read and understand this book."―Peter Thiel, entrepreneur, investor, and author of Zero to One
"This book is as important as it is unsettling. Gordon makes a compelling case that the golden age of growth is over. Anyone concerned with our economic future needs to carefully consider his argument."―Lawrence Summers, Harvard University
"In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon looks at the evolution of consumption and the standard of living in the United States from the end of the Civil War to the present day. His work brims with the enthusiasm of discovery and is enriched by personal anecdotes and insights derived over a long and very productive career."―Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth makes use of economic history to argue that Americans should expect the rate of economic growth to be, on average, slower in the future than it has been in the recent past. Gordon is the most important exponent of the pessimistic view working today and this is an exceptional book."―Louis Cain, Loyola University Chicago
From the Back Cover
"The story of our standard of living is a vital part of American history and is well told in this fascinating book. Gordon provides colorful details and striking statistics about how the way we live has changed, and he asks whether we will live happily ever after. His answer will surprise you and challenge conventional assumptions about the future of economic growth. This book is a landmark--there is nothing else like it." --Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate in Economics
"A towering achievement that will utterly transform the debate on U.S. productivity and growth. Robert Gordon chronicles the stunning swiftness with which American lives have advanced since 1870, and raises profound questions about whether we have benefitted from one-offs that cannot be repeated. Combining eloquent description with forceful and clear economic analysis, Gordon's voice is gripping and compelling. This is economic history at its best."--Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a tour de force with an immensely important bottom line. It is packed, page after page, with insights and facts that every reader will find fascinating and new. A profound book that also happens to be a marvelous read."--George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics
"Keynes dismissed concerns about economic trends by remarking that in the long run, we are all dead. Gordon turns this upside down by reminding us that we inherited somebody else's long run. If you care about the legacy we will leave future generations, read this richly detailed account of America's amazing century of growth."--Paul Romer, New York University
"Robert Gordon has written the book on wealth--how Americans made it and enjoyed it in the past. If we're going to create more wealth in the future instead of arguing about dividing a shrinking pie, we have to read and understand this book."--Peter Thiel, entrepreneur, investor, and author of Zero to One
"This book is as important as it is unsettling. Gordon makes a compelling case that the golden age of growth is over. Anyone concerned with our economic future needs to carefully consider his argument."--Lawrence Summers, Harvard University
"In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon looks at the evolution of consumption and the standard of living in the United States from the end of the Civil War to the present day. His work brims with the enthusiasm of discovery and is enriched by personal anecdotes and insights derived over a long and very productive career."--Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University
"The Rise and Fall of American Growth makes use of economic history to argue that Americans should expect the rate of economic growth to be, on average, slower in the future than it has been in the recent past. Gordon is the most important exponent of the pessimistic view working today and this is an exceptional book."--Louis Cain, Loyola University Chicago
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Princeton University Press; Illustrated edition (January 12, 2016)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 784 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0691147728
- ISBN-13 : 978-0691147727
- Item Weight : 3.13 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.3 x 2.2 x 9.4 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #172,923 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #71 in Development & Growth Economics (Books)
- #332 in Economic Conditions (Books)
- #415 in Economic History (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the author

Discover more of the author’s books, see similar authors, read author blogs and more
Customer reviews
Customer Reviews, including Product Star Ratings help customers to learn more about the product and decide whether it is the right product for them.
To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. It also analyzed reviews to verify trustworthiness.
Learn more how customers reviews work on Amazon-
Top reviews
Top reviews from the United States
There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later.
1. The book’s central message is surprising at first. For years I have heard that “the pace of change in business is accelerating faster and faster" This relentless message was so drummed into my head that I would not have dreamed to question it prior to reading this book. I’d always pictured the office worker of mid-20th century America languidly composing letters to his secretary to type and mail, having a 3-martini lunch and playing golf - in contrast to today’s worker firing off e-mails, writing blog posts and white papers, participating in international conference calls, etc (sometimes all at the same time). Surely we are creating more productivity growth today? Professor Gordon’s book makes a convincing case we are not.
2. The single most thought-provoking element in the book for me was the thought experiment of imagining how much technology completely transformed the day-to-day life of Americans over the period between 1870-1920. I am curious to see this thought experiment carried into more recent periods — especially given that much of disagreement with the book is that most people cannot accept that each passing decade is not necessarily seeing an exponential jump in technological advances in our lives. I found myself analyzing friends and family's day-to-day technology experiences throughout the last century and especially more recently --
a. My grandmother (and great grandmother) described to me a life that went from a frontier “Little House on the Prairie” level of hardship around 1900 to modern comfort by 1930 perfectly capturing the author’s central theme.
b. My parents experienced a largely unchanging day-to-day routine from roughly the late 1950s all the way into the early 2000s — not much beyond television turning to color and cooking with a microwave. But suddenly around 2000 they embraced internet shopping, the Kindle, DVR & streaming, etc.
c. My own day-to-day life was transformed between 1995-2005 from totally being centered around my office desk and world of paper and phone tag, to a peripatetic existence focused on my laptop and e-mail (and mobile phone to less extent). In contrast, technologies' day to day effect on my life since 2005 has been very incremental.
d. My nephew’s life hadn’t particularly liked using a computer, but then his life totally and completely changed around the year 2010 — centering around work from TaskRabbit., texts and social media — he reaches for his phone as he wakes up and hardly puts it down.
I imagine for the average person this thought experiment is more interesting than productivity growth statistics..
3. Experience of air travel — As a young boy my father took me to the Boeing 747 plant to gawk at one of first of this new line of aircraft. At that time only a bit more than 60 years had passed since the Wright Brothers had first taken flight and my relatives patted my head and repeatedly exclaimed how “when I get older planes will be so much bigger and faster and more comfortable". I thought about this as I was crammed into coach on a delayed 11-hour flight to Tokyo. Almost 50 years have passed since this childhood memory and planes have not improved in the manner I was led to expect. Even the Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner — no question a marvel of engineering with its millions of miles of wiring and carbon-fiber construction — was a relatively disappointing improvement in terms of passenger’s flying experience from the perspective of my historic timeline. The book brilliantly puts my experience into context.
4. Autonomous vehicles — I have to disagree with the author's dismissal of the potential disruption of driverless vehicles. Yes, it is not nearly the transformation of moving from horses to cars, but potential household savings ($6,500/household), environmental impact, potential change in city planning and the way people live their day-to-day lives would at least start to rival some of the early 20th century technological advances. Couldn’t one expect a virtuous/vicious economic cycle similar to the one that the book describes between 19010 and 1930 when reduced automobile price and spiraling costs for transit and other transport options that led to vehicle registration exploding?
5. Author correct SO FAR on productivity growth — I just read that annualized US Total Factor Productivity Growth has been well under 2% over the past 3 years — roughly the time since the book was published. Even 2% was considered a very pessimistic projection. So for the moment at least Professor Gordon is completely correct and his critics quite wrong about the productivity effect of artificial intelligence and other IT advances.
Whether or not you agree with The Rise and Fall of American Growth's predictions about the future impact of technology on productivity and quality of life, the historical context the book provides is extremely valuable.
The book is split into 3 parts with the first two focused on the periods 1870-1940 and 1940-2015. The author discusses the main advances made in each section. In particular the period from the 1870s saw the introduction of electricity and the shift from transportation dependent on horse and carriage to the automobile. The spread of indoor plumbing is discussed as well and the trends of urbanization that occurred as a combination of all of these technologies is discussed. It is impossible not to reflect on electrification as of fundamental importance to productivity growth. Electricity itself has to be the most important ingredient to the growth of an economy that we have encountered so far and it facilitates a huge portion of daily interaction. The author discusses the introduction of the automobile from several angles. He discusses how sanitation levels improved as horse refuse levels declined. In particular the combination of debt horses and manure definitely catalyzed health epidemics and the automobiles introduction at low price points via the model T had large positive spillover benefits from a health perspective. The author reminds us of when the telephone was invented and its density in households over time. The author also spends time on non GDP related concepts like quality of work and discusses how the manual labor and in particular agricultural proportion of the workforce steadily was in decline which improved qualities of like substantially. Throughout the section the author discusses how the foundational improvements in the late 19th/early 20th century were partially missed in GDP statistics and the tangible improvements in quality of life were also missed when one considers the type of labor people were engaged in.
The second part starts with the high growth in the 40s after the war when the US went back to closer to full employment with strong growth. The author documents how automobile ownership rates trended along with electrification. One of the messages conveyed throughout is that the time lag between the invention of something and its full impact on productivity and growth is on the order of decades. The author gets into things like air travel and antibiotics. Noting that airplane travel times are in line with how they were historically and that the wait times in airports offset improvements in transit times. In terms of medical advances the discovery of penicillin and antibiotics had much greater marginal benefits than what is being discovered today. The author also goes on to complain about medical inflation and the structural problems with US healthcare that make productivity growth particularly challenging. The author does discuss the large technology capex that was witnessed in the 90s and the improvements in computer hardware and entertainment systems but subordinates their benefit to other inventions witnessed earlier in the century.
In terms of the message that the ability to grow GDP has entered a lower level and that the inventions of the 20th century were one of a kind the message is quite convincing. But despite the resonance of the idea that GDP growth at the pace of last century will be greater than next due to the examples presented the narrative is at times quite trivial. It is a fact that if you improve child infant mortality rates that the incremental improvement to longevity declines and that is a one off... Such arguments are not what needs to dispute. Will the benefit of semiconductor technology be greater than that of the automobile from a productivity growth perspective. To make a GDP argument about such a topic you will likely be right but the marginal costs of technology products has been in such remarkable decline due to manufacturing technology gains that you are comparing apples to oranges. Currently the great strides of moving from agricultural to urban has taken place and the inventions of 150 years ago have catalyzed that. Will strict productivity growth from a GDP accounting perspective be as high as it was in the past most likely not. Is growth becoming more difficult to account for given technology is a non-rival good, yes. As a consequence the main point of the book is unimpressively argued. I recommend reading this for understanding when and how technologies were adopted in the late 19th and 20th centuries. This book documents the US very well. To be convinced that the GDP growth golden years were behind us because we cant reinvent the lightbulb, you didn't need to read this book...
Top reviews from other countries
The years 1940 to 1970 were, if anything, even more spectacular. Wages increased even more as productivity boomed. Highways were built which enabled easy travel from all corners of the nation to all of the others. Driveways filled up with automobiles. Air travel became increasingly accessible to everyone, not just the financial elite. And on long hot humid summer days Americans could take refuge in their air conditioning.
Then, with the exception of a brief spurt between 1996 and 2004, the helter skelter growth slowed to an amble. A rust belt developed in areas previously frenetic with production of steel, cars and other goods. The ICT “revolution”, heralded as the bringer of new industrial and domestic advances on a par with those of electricity and the internal combustion engine, has so far failed to deliver in such a grand manner. There’s a limit to the extent to which cat videos and 140-character prattlings can improve the standard of living.
Robert J Gordon’s story of this great unfurling of the American dream is captivating in two ways: first in showing how the meteoric rise and subsequent plateauing (it’s overdramatic to characterise it as a fall, really) came about, using some of the same old sources, though in slightly different ways, maybe, and also drawing on resources such as back-issues of the Sears catalogue to trace the way in which American households advanced from home-made everything, including virtually all clothes, to the ability to order everything – clothes, white goods, musical instruments (the number of musicians who made their start on Sears catalogue instruments, which Gordon doesn’t go into, is phenomenal), and so on – via the postman.
But he also tracks how things have stagnated: with all of the waiting around at airports and all the other attendant hassles of flying it now takes longer by jet to fly New York-LA than it did in the day of propeller-driven aeroplanes, and with all the little extras, like paying for luggage to be carried and food on the flight, both of which used to be included in the fare, it’s more expensive too.
Gordon is not, however, blaming anyone or anything in particular. The problem is, he suggests, that all the good stuff has been done, and everything now is just new ways of doing those things (emails for letters, online orders for mail orders, incremental improvements in TV picture definition, DVDs or Netflix for videos or the cinema, and so on). Likewise with productivity: ICT may be able to achieve improvements, but the potential is nowhere near as striking as that for advances of previous industrial revolutions.
In his final chapter, then, he advances proposals not so much for kick-starting a productivity revival as for alleviating the fallout of its demise. Like Thomas Piketty, whom he makes a point of acknowledging and citing, he recognises the enormous chasm that has opened up between top and bottom of American society. In a particularly poignant chart he shows how between 1945 and 1975 – the years of the “great compression” - incomes advanced at similar rates across American society, and how since then the top 10% have continued to enjoy steady growth (those at the very top, as Piketty pointed out, have enjoyed obscene growth in their wealth in comparative terms) whilst those at the bottom have suffered ongoing contraction.
In all, I would rate this book, as a piece of economic history, almost on a par with the works of Landes (The Unbound Prometheus and The Wealth And Poverty Of Nations), as a research piece at least in the same ball park as Piketty’s Capital (yes, I have read it), and as a piece to dip into alongside Porter’s three best-known works (yep, I read them too; I didn’t just look at the pictures).
Nevertheless, like all of those publications, it also deserves, demands even, critical appraisal. For starters, I find the central thesis too alarmist, like the head of the US Patent Office at the turn of the 20th Century believing he could close it down as everything had already been invented. There are many reasons for guarded optimism. The Economist recently ran a Special Report outlining some of the many potential productivity improvements in Agriculture in the pipeline (if only we could get past the Frankenfoods pitchforks and torches in the dark mentality some of them may one day get used). Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing to most of us) has only just begun to find its role, so far in specific niches, but plenty of work is being done on breaking loose of that straitjacket. And who knows, somewhere within ICT there is that killer app like the motor car or electric lighting waiting to be found (I don’t think the so-called “internet of everything” is it, though; I don’t need my fridge to tell me I’m out of milk, thanks).
Secondly, Gordon appears to dismiss out of hand the role of government in revitalisation, but as Mariana Mazzucato and Carla Perez, among others, have pointed out, without government there would be no internet, no ICT revolution, no (shock horror) iPhone. In The Entrepreneurial State, Mazzucato advanced the idea that government could be doing far more for the development of alternative energy.
Furthermore, without the government-built network of Interstate Highways, what would Americans do with all those cars?
Thirdly, Gordon gives a very confusing account of the benefits of immigration. First he assigns responsibility to immigration for bringing down wages in some sectors, then seems to be saying that it is really only the wages of immigrants that are affected. He partly credits immigration control in the US after the second world war for rising wages, but makes no mention of the many Mexicans who moved, under the Programa Bracero, to the US during the period covered by that war and the one in Korea in order to fill in for the Americans serving in the armed forces, which saw the Mexican population in the US double to five million. And he proposes a points system for permitting immigrants to enter the US, making the classic economist’s mistake of commodifying people, in the belief that a price can be put on everything.
And finally, at least for this review, there is Gordon’s US-centricity, almost to the exception of everywhere else. One of the great strengths of Piketty’s work was that whilst it spoke of “Les Trente Glorieuses”, it did so in an international context. Gordon’s “Great Leap Forward” only applies to the US. There is nothing in Gordon about how improving economies in the rest of the world may benefit the US. The rest of the world more or less doesn’t exist in the bubble he constructs.
However, to reemphasise my earlier point, notwithstanding a few quibbles I consider this book to be of extraordinary value: a record of spectacular progress and how it was achieved, and a warning that, unless somebody brings more beer, the party’s over.
It is rich in detail and well supported with evidence.
As a reader it is well written therefore it’s length was not an issue for me though it could be a consideration for some (it is a heavy book even in paperback form).
If I am going to say anything critical I would say a more ruthless editor could have made a difference and not lost any of the central message. Secondly I would point out that the policy prescriptions in the final chapter are a bit on the weak side and less sophisticated than the historical analysis that supports them.
Robert Gordon and his team are to be congratulated on the amount of information they have gathered and put into a single book.
The Postscript at the end lists a number of policy changes that should be seriously considered going forward if we are to avoid the severe impact of protracted very low growth when a lot of people think we can keep on growing at a significant rate forever.
Not sure how we get the Politicians to understand that things need to change as it will take time and significant effort, something today's politicians do not understand
Sadly the book is the absolute opposite of today's off the cuff ( non measured fact based ) quick fix populist politics.







