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The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History Paperback – October 14, 1999
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The world that author Harry S. Dent Jr. presents in his narration of The Roaring 2000s is one you'll want to live in: incredible interconnectivity between electronic devices, superfast jets, and computers that transmit video images, translate voice commands--everything except make omelets. Dent, who comes off like an accountant you'd trust with your last dime, makes the future sound so wonderful that you'll feel guilty listening to him talk about it on a low-tech cassette player. (Running time: three hours, two cassettes) --Lou Schuler --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
From Library Journal
Dent's previous book The Great Boom Ahead (Hyperion, 1993) accurately predicted the stock market boom of the 1990s. In this one, he looks ahead to the new millennium and claims that the Dow may reach as high as 35,000 within the next decade, due in large part to the changing demographics of baby boom investors.
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
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Top Customer Reviews
Some of the things I didn't like (and why I didn't give the book a higher rating):
1) Constant references to his last book regarding key ideas and terminology. 2) Lack of specific references for further independent research (this really hurts his arguments for he cites many studies throughout the text) 3) What appears to be a lack of consideration for some other historical events that spurred change (for example WWII had a major role in the spurring of certain new technologies). 4) His incredible optimism that events will unfold exactly as described, in the time frame mentioned. 5) Some parts of the book seem either like old news or self-evident (see his explaination on page 251 of why some declining neighborhoods regenerate).
Overall, it's a good read and one will find Dent's ideas and philosophy interesting. I hope his vision comes true (for all of us).
Dent's current projections for the Dow Jones Industrials is 41,500 by 2008, whereas he now expects the Nasdaq to reach 45,000 by the same date. Were this to occur, the total stock market capitalization would exceed $101 trillion (currently around $14-$16 trillion)! Were the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at a rate of approximately 6.5%, including a real GDP rate of 4.0% (Greenspan's best-case target) and inflation of 2.5% (Fed's and GAO estimate), the nominal GDP would reach $17 trillion in 2008.
The ratio of total stock market capitalization to nominal GDP would reach 600%! The figure at the most recent highs was 185%. At the peaks in 1929, 1973, and 1987, the figures were 81%, 70%, and 64% respectively. At the height of Japan's bubble market in December 1989, this figure topped 150%. (The average of the past 129 years in the U.S. has been 50%.) This suggests that the ratio will TRIPLE in the next eight years. How can this happen? Answer: It cannot.
Dent predicted a real estate market crash (30%-50%) in the U.S. in 1994-95, based on his demographic analysis. This was a fundamental blunder.
Dent predicted in late 1997 and early 1998 that the Fed would raise rates in 1998, that the long bond yield would hit 7.25%, and that large-cap stocks would correct and recover but underperform small stocks. Such a failed prediction calls into question his very understanding of the business and interest rate cycles.
There should be no doubt in any reader's mind the dubious nature of Dent's methodology and therefore his projections. More than anything, Dent is an expert marketer of Harry Dent, genius, forecaster extraordinaire.
When the market flattens out or takes a massive dive in the decade or more ahead, Dent will be watching from his Puerto Rican plantation estate where he moved in 1998. I'll leave it to you to figure out why he would move from a spectacular beachside mansion in Half Moon Bay, CA to the Caribbean when he did . . .
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Good: Prediction of U.S. stock crash in 2008/09 due to demographic trends, analysis of demographics.Read more