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Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It Hardcover – Bargain Price, July 14, 2004
| Peter G. Peterson (Author) Find all the books, read about the author, and more. See search results for this author |
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- ASIN : B0007D9V8C
- Hardcover : 272 pages
- Item Weight : 13.6 ounces
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Both of author Peterson's twin towers of deficit worsened since 2004. The federal budget deficit became dramatically redder; however, the politicians attempt to spin the numbers as percentages and counting or not counting various segments or overlooking contingent liabilities. One is reminded how our dependence on foreign oil went over 50% in 1978 (Oil & Gas Journal 1978 Annual Report), whereas our politicians managed to cook the books for almost another 20 years before having to admit domestic sources accounted for less than half of our crude oil consumption.
The 2007 trade deficit for the US was 791 billion (The Economist, Pocket World in Figures), almost nine times that of the second place finisher, Spain, at 83 billion. Only eleven nations ran a deficit of over 10 billion. Japan, Germany and China ran by far the three largest surpluses, and it must be remembered that only China enjoys significant natural resources of those three.
But even more telling than those two deficits, is the velocity with which dollars are being repatriated to the US through the purchase of public debt, American corporations, and American land and resources, one of the aspects of the problem skipped over by Peterson. In the 1980s, the Japanese manipulated Congress with a heavy hand based on their control of Federal short term paper, but now they have been joined by Germany, China and Saudi Arabia. Take a look at [...] for a breakdown in the two trillon that has come in to establish control over American industry since 1978.
So what do our feckless politicians do? Apply misdirection and misdirection. Politics is a game of mirrors and doubletalk. Keep the public focused on abortion, gay rights and other minor issues so the anointed can get elected one more time. And of course, they talk about health when they mean health insurance, and offer nothing to affect the critical situation in Social Security and Medicare. If I hear one more politician talk about a "social security trust fund" I'm going to barf.
So why don't I give this book five stars? Because the author offers a few palliatives that he says will solve the major problems. So the reader can be justly shocked by the facts, but feel comforted when he goes to bed believing that there is and will be a solution. We can't scare the American public too much, can we? And we need to confiscate their guns before they rise up in rebellion.
So what is the solution? There isn't one, just a resolution. That will probably be a division of the US into at least five countries, none of which will assume a dime of the US debt, and all of which will re-organize their entitlement programs on a pay-as-you-go basis. Some may even nationalize or confiscate corporations and resources without compensation to their former owners. Yes, Virginia, these is a Santa Claus, but he's the Grinch. So mode it be.
Those of us unfortunate enough to experience this cataclysm in the mid-21st century will look back at the 20th as America's golden age. But no one, certainly not our politicians or author Peterson, will tell us this. I guess we simply aren't ready for the bad news that we're all emperors without any clothes.
Over time, Asian investors will own bigger percentages of the S&P 500. Cities and states are also selling assets when ordinary taxes and bond sales can't raise sufficient funds. Foreign investors will continue to buy shares of Fortune 500 blue chip companies. Since Fortune 500 companies provide reliable returns the world has an insatiable appetite for these assets.
The book does have some flaws, in my opinion. In many respects it is too optimistic about the future of America's economy. While there has been some economic growth in recent years, keep in mind that economic growth is generally measured by GDP. GDP is a highly inaccurate measure; it does not take into account the effects of population growth, or the costs of pollution, or depletion of natural resources, or decline in standards of living. A somewhat more accurate measure, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), shows that in fact there has been almost no real economic growth in the U.S. since the 1970s. Peterson also does not take into account the fact that due to Hubbert's peak in oil recovery we are likely to see substantially higher energy prices in years to come. This only reinforces the need to get our house in order.
Peterson's prescriptions are good as far as they go. Peterson proposes indexing Social Security benefits to prices instead of wages. This would work only if prices rise more slowly than wages, which may not be the case in the future. I would propose indexing Social Security benefits to either wages or prices, whichever rises the least in a given year. Peterson does a great job pointing out the flaws of Medicare and links them to flaws in the overall health care system, which I thought was well done. I would consider Peterson's suggestions the absolute minimum of what should be done. If for whatever reason we can't implement these needed reforms, in my opinion both Social Security and Medicare should be ELIMINATED, PERIOD. We've tried for years to contain costs in these programs, with absolutely nothing to show for it. Maybe we should just get rid of them. Keep in mind that before these programs were started, seniors weren't starving in the streets.


