- Hardcover: 320 pages
- Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (December 22, 2008)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0470270438
- ISBN-13: 978-0470270431
- Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars See all reviews (9 customer reviews)
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,466,129 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Seasonal Stock Market Trends: The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading 1st Edition
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From the Inside Flap
In many aspects of life, things occur in a repetitive pattern. And while things do in fact change over time, the basic underlying idea of seasons and seasonality is that even though things do change, they often return to a particular state over and over again--often in a very predictable way.
Over the course of the past twenty-five years, author Jay Kaeppel--one of the most experienced profes-sionals in the areas of seasonality and stock, options, and futures trading--has examined a wide range of seasonal and cyclical trends as they relate to the stock market over the past century. Now, with Seasonal Stock Market Trends, he shares his extensive insights with you.
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this book will show you how following the calendar--and taking advantage of consistently strong seasonal trends--can help you to achieve long-term stock market success. Kaeppel introduces you to a wide array of seasonal stock market trends--most based on 70 to 100 plus years of actual market data--and identifies objective "rules" for utilizing each one. Along the way, he also presents a process that allows you to track the performance of a given strategy, so that you can gauge its overall effectiveness.
Just a few of the trends touched upon include:
Holiday Seasonal Trends, which looks at the trading days surrounding market holidays to reveal some surprising results
Monthly Seasonal Trends, which focuses on a variety of intramonth market trends and breaks the month down into clearly defined favorable and unfavorable trading days
Repetitive Time Cycles of Note deals with the performance of the stock market in relation to three specific, and repetitive, time cycles--the 212-week cycle, the 40-week cycle, and the 53-day cycle
Sell in May and Go Away thoroughly analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of breaking the year into two six-month periods for investment purposes
Rounding out this detailed discussion is a chapter devoted to using a variety of seasonal trends to build three separate investment models--the Long-Only Method, the Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method; and "Jay's Ultimate Seasonal Barometer" (or JUSB). These detailed models are designed to generate specific buy and sell signals, and require no interpretation on your part.
Seasonal Stock Market Trends will help you incorporate seasonal trends into your current investment or trading endeavors and put you in a far better position to generate consistent profits over time. Free of complicated trading systems and so-called surefire secrets, this book will set you on a solid path to finding opportunities in the markets based on recurring seasonal patterns.
From the Back Cover
SEASONAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS
"Seasonal Stock Market Trends is by far the most comprehensive analysis of seasonality since we created the Stock Trader's Almanac forty-two years ago. We even learned a few new things."
Jeffrey and Yale Hirsch, Creators and Editors at Large, Stock Trader's Almanac and www.stocktradersalmanac.com
"Jay Kaeppel's book, Seasonal Stock Market Trends, sets a new standard in seasonality research. There is no guessing here; all of his work is well researched and thoroughly tested."
David Vomund, President, Vomund Investment Management
"Jay Kaeppel is a highly regarded market analyst who brings his discerning perspective to the study of seasonal patterns in the stock market. In this comprehensive text, Kaeppel builds on the vast literature of calendar price tendencies and goes on to develop a wealth of powerful new seasonal investment strategies."
Nelson Freeburg, Editor, Formula Research
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Top Customer Reviews
I recently subscribed to [...] The site researches stocks to uncover historical trends based on calendar as well as company earnings releases. I have found that using their research along with some simple technical analysis produces very good results.
Take this review as a warning.
HOWEVER, to really get good results out of Seasonal Stock Trading .. you need to have a service like Blashing.com to get Seasonal data and graphs for every stock or ETF. They also have a Seasonal Stock Scanner which finds the best stocks to buy and sell for every period of the year.
So, using the Seasonal Stock Trading technique learned from this good book along with having access to good, reliable Seasonal data and graphs is a very profitable method to Trade Stocks.
This is another good Seasonal Stock Trading resource to have handy: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B006CWBGBM/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=rollingandsea-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B006CWBGBM
Good Luck !!!
The book was written a few years ago, but that's actually a good thing, as you can then research for yourself the "out of sample" data of the subsequent time period, and see for yourself if the patterns are still holding up.
My one quibble, which is minor, is that the longer-term patterns (4- Or 10-Year patterns for example) simply haven't had enough data points in the last 120 yrs or so to be truly meaningful. But the astute reader can decide for him/herself whether there's signal in the noise.
Jay also has a great and humorous writing style, and you'll be hard-pressed to find a book on historical trading patterns that is this light and amusing. A must-read.