What to make of this book? It was a fairly interesting read, despite several glaring flaws.
The subtitle,"How humans will become as irrelevant as cockroaches" was somewhat misleading. The author does not think that humans will become irrelevant so much as obsolete. That is, he thinks that artificial intelligence will ultimately cater to us night and day, satisfy our every material need and solve all of our most pressing problems.
The author makes a pretty good case that the rise of artificial intelligence will lead to technological unemployment, starting with the elimination of the jobs of truck drivers by autonomous self driving trucks. From there, thanks to machine vision, he thinks that many or most human jobs will be eliminated or rendered obsolete by the end of the 2030s.
One of the problems I have with the book is that the writing style is flabby. The author uses far more words than is necessary to make his case. A good editor could probably have reduced the size of this book by 25% or more by eliminating unnecessary verbiage.
For example, the author, in giving a hypothetical example of aliens from outerspace interviewing the public, is not satisfied with simply saying that they will interview "everyone." Instead, he has to give a long, bulleted list (the author is very fond of bulleted lists) of virtually every type of person he could think of– janitors, ditchdiggers, people living in slums, doctors, lawyers, fast food workers, conservatives, liberals, et cetera -- this list stretches on for nearly two full pages.
Similarly, the author is not satisfied with merely stating that artificial intelligence will help us with all of our problems; he must include another long, bulleted list naming those problems, as if we don't know what they are already (to a large degree, the book reads as if it was written for fifth-graders).
In discussing the plight of truck drivers, the author is not satisfied with saying the media will ignore the drivers' complaints, but he has to unnecessarily bring politics into the matter by naming well-known conservative commentators (but not liberals).
The weak writing is a surprise, considering that this is not the author's first book. Perhaps the better part of being a good writer is having a good editor, but the author obviously failed in this regard, which is surprising, since, as a multimillionaire, he could certainly have afforded to hire the best editors.
A somewhat more serious criticism is it the book offers a somewhat myopic point of view. For example, the author discusses artificial intelligence at great length but practically ignores nanotechnology, which will prove to be either a fantastic boon or a fantastic threat. He also completely ignores the considerable existential threat that super artificial intelligence may present to mankind, as explored in books such as those by Nick Bostrom.
In Chapter 10 - "Why Are There No Extraterrestrials?" the author hypothesizes that the reason we have never made contact with extraterrestrials is that they, too, once they become advanced enough, will have developed advanced artificial intelligence and will then enter into a "quiescent" state in which all of their needs will be satisfied and they will have no desire to explore or conquer the rest of the universe.
This flies in the face of Ray Kurzweil's theory that, as artificial intelligence advances, it will seek to expand and spread outwards into the rest of the universe, eventually "saturating" it with intelligence. Perhaps the author does not agree with Kurzweil's theory, but he has surely heard of it, and the fact that he makes no mention or refutation of it is peculiar.
In summary, I find this an interesting book, but one that, because of its flaws, is much less than what it could have been.
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The Second Intelligent Species: How Humans Will Become as Irrelevant as Cockroaches Kindle Edition
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Marshall Brain
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Marshall Brain
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LanguageEnglish
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Publication dateApril 7, 2015
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File size800 KB
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- ASIN : B00VU1DM6C
- Publisher : BYG Publishing, Inc.; 1st edition (April 7, 2015)
- Publication date : April 7, 2015
- Language : English
- File size : 800 KB
- Simultaneous device usage : Unlimited
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Not Enabled
- Print length : 187 pages
- Lending : Enabled
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Best Sellers Rank:
#1,023,874 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #194 in Robotic Engineering
- #329 in Robotics & Automation (Kindle Store)
- #661 in Robotics (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
Customer reviews
3.8 out of 5 stars
3.8 out of 5
67 global ratings
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Reviewed in the United States on June 25, 2015
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28 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on April 28, 2017
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but 1 star for using the book's premise to tout a political screed (and I'm a liberal!)
The author makes a rock solid case that the future of robots is terrifying. And it's not "robots gone wild". It's robots can do things quicker, more accurately and more consistently than people. Beating Jeopardy champs, beating chess grandmasters, driverless cars, 3-D printing a house, reviewing x-rays, taking fast food orders, etc., and this is only the beginning. Robots are developing faster than we can keep up. Most manufacturing jobs didn't get outsourced overseas, they got outsourced to microchips, ie, robots. How does the world and the USA react when robots can do almost any and every job? Very scary.
But spare me the polemic about a choice between future dystopia and a future paradise society.
The author makes a rock solid case that the future of robots is terrifying. And it's not "robots gone wild". It's robots can do things quicker, more accurately and more consistently than people. Beating Jeopardy champs, beating chess grandmasters, driverless cars, 3-D printing a house, reviewing x-rays, taking fast food orders, etc., and this is only the beginning. Robots are developing faster than we can keep up. Most manufacturing jobs didn't get outsourced overseas, they got outsourced to microchips, ie, robots. How does the world and the USA react when robots can do almost any and every job? Very scary.
But spare me the polemic about a choice between future dystopia and a future paradise society.
One person found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on May 18, 2015
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If you enjoyed Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom you will really enjoy this book. Nick's book is more academic and has awakened many like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking. However Marshall does an excellent job of providing likely scenarios that will result from the application of exponential technologies. Good examples will be the likely elimination of many job classes, such as 1-2 million truck drivers, 15 million retail jobs, 3 million fast food jobs, 6 million construction jobs, 3 million teaching jobs and 10 million manufacturing jobs. All these millions will be without jobs and virtually no other employment opportunities which will present enormous societal challenges.
Marshall provides some compelling evidence that the second intelligent electronic species is nearly a guaranteed inevitability as one day researchers will replicate self-recursive human intelligence and consciousness. Authors like Diamondis who wrote Bold and Abundance would counter some of Marhsall's speculation but I believe he provides some fairly compelling arguments.
I enjoyed science fiction as a child, over fifty years ago, but have since nearly exclusively restricted my reading to non fiction, especially after medical school. However i was really pleasantly surprised by the end of the book which I actually enjoyed more than the beginning.. I had long forgotten that fiction has the potential to convey future potential better than non-fiction. I was surprised at how likely some of the items written about could be and are not at all addressed in current science projections. The Australia Project is an alternative to the dystopian artificial general intelligence future that results from objective and rational electronic intelligence controlling all of society. The Project was designed to create heaven on earth or the closest approximation possible. The designs the book describes are really visionary and something I have never contemplated or previously read. That alone is worth the read.
I won't spoil it for you with the details but you simply must read the last part of the book. Absolutely one of the best $1 bargains out there
Marshall provides some compelling evidence that the second intelligent electronic species is nearly a guaranteed inevitability as one day researchers will replicate self-recursive human intelligence and consciousness. Authors like Diamondis who wrote Bold and Abundance would counter some of Marhsall's speculation but I believe he provides some fairly compelling arguments.
I enjoyed science fiction as a child, over fifty years ago, but have since nearly exclusively restricted my reading to non fiction, especially after medical school. However i was really pleasantly surprised by the end of the book which I actually enjoyed more than the beginning.. I had long forgotten that fiction has the potential to convey future potential better than non-fiction. I was surprised at how likely some of the items written about could be and are not at all addressed in current science projections. The Australia Project is an alternative to the dystopian artificial general intelligence future that results from objective and rational electronic intelligence controlling all of society. The Project was designed to create heaven on earth or the closest approximation possible. The designs the book describes are really visionary and something I have never contemplated or previously read. That alone is worth the read.
I won't spoil it for you with the details but you simply must read the last part of the book. Absolutely one of the best $1 bargains out there
16 people found this helpful
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Stephen Oberauer
5.0 out of 5 stars
Marshall makes a compelling argument for a new economic system
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 22, 2015Verified Purchase
Having previously enjoyed reading Marshall Brain's Manna, and being very interested in AI and the future, I was very eager to read The Second Intelligent Species.
In the book, Marshall makes a compelling argument for a new economic system, but it does make me wonder where the counter arguments are, and why so few governments are trying out the basic income idea. For example, where is the book from one of nearly every single one of the world's existing governments explaining why actually there's no need to change, because robots will never get any better, due to some obscure physical law, or they won't replace human jobs, because they're actually going to be really lazy, and we're all going to be just fine?
Despite thinking that on the whole this book is great, I am concerned about a few things:
1. Marshall is convinced that super intelligent beings will behave in a very specific way. I'm not so sure, and I don't think that people who are writing AGI systems are sure either. There is a lot of concern in the AI community that the behaviour of AGI is unpredictable and could be bad. For example, if an AGI decides on the most effective way to increase the average happiness of all humans on Earth, will it choose to kill all humans, except for the happiest one? Or if humans actually get to decide what the AGI does, in order to keep it under control, who is it that gets to decide? Will religious leaders, dictators and cult members have a say? I'd recommend reading Surviving AI for a detailed discussion on the potential benefits and dangers of AI.
2. Marshall seems to use the words intelligence and consciousness interchangeably. They are very different things and should be treated as such. Intelligence is about making decisions based on goals, pattern recognition and logic. Consciousness is about experiencing. Intelligence can be digital, but consciousness is analogue.
3. While I believe that there's nothing to stop AGI from being developed, I think Marshall could have done a better job of explaining why he believes it so strongly.
As a bonus, you also get the book Manna, included in the Kindle version. Manna is an interesting story about the future, describing potential positive and negative futures, based on the systems we choose to adopt.
Stephen Oberauer
Author of The Mischievous Nerd's Guide to World Domination
Contributor to Anticipating tomorrow's politics (Transpolitica Book 1)
In the book, Marshall makes a compelling argument for a new economic system, but it does make me wonder where the counter arguments are, and why so few governments are trying out the basic income idea. For example, where is the book from one of nearly every single one of the world's existing governments explaining why actually there's no need to change, because robots will never get any better, due to some obscure physical law, or they won't replace human jobs, because they're actually going to be really lazy, and we're all going to be just fine?
Despite thinking that on the whole this book is great, I am concerned about a few things:
1. Marshall is convinced that super intelligent beings will behave in a very specific way. I'm not so sure, and I don't think that people who are writing AGI systems are sure either. There is a lot of concern in the AI community that the behaviour of AGI is unpredictable and could be bad. For example, if an AGI decides on the most effective way to increase the average happiness of all humans on Earth, will it choose to kill all humans, except for the happiest one? Or if humans actually get to decide what the AGI does, in order to keep it under control, who is it that gets to decide? Will religious leaders, dictators and cult members have a say? I'd recommend reading Surviving AI for a detailed discussion on the potential benefits and dangers of AI.
2. Marshall seems to use the words intelligence and consciousness interchangeably. They are very different things and should be treated as such. Intelligence is about making decisions based on goals, pattern recognition and logic. Consciousness is about experiencing. Intelligence can be digital, but consciousness is analogue.
3. While I believe that there's nothing to stop AGI from being developed, I think Marshall could have done a better job of explaining why he believes it so strongly.
As a bonus, you also get the book Manna, included in the Kindle version. Manna is an interesting story about the future, describing potential positive and negative futures, based on the systems we choose to adopt.
Stephen Oberauer
Author of The Mischievous Nerd's Guide to World Domination
Contributor to Anticipating tomorrow's politics (Transpolitica Book 1)
One person found this helpful
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YB
4.0 out of 5 stars
Accessible and straight to the problem, but a bit too simple
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 6, 2015Verified Purchase
I enjoyed the quick read and it brings together many of the issues that shape deep technological future.
The free addendum book is also inspiring, the Manna story.
Overall the specific future scenarios and some of the core arguments are not logically consistent.
More work would help connect these future distopia / utopia scenarios to decisions in the present.
The free addendum book is also inspiring, the Manna story.
Overall the specific future scenarios and some of the core arguments are not logically consistent.
More work would help connect these future distopia / utopia scenarios to decisions in the present.
One person found this helpful
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Elizabeth Jane
5.0 out of 5 stars
A clear vision and description of two futures
Reviewed in Australia on October 26, 2016Verified Purchase
"The Second Intelligent Species" and the accompanying novel "Manna" fit together, prose and fiction, like hand and glove, describing what could be, two futures, one of creativity, freedom and abundance, and the other of poverty and extreme wealth, a world of missed opportunities. And then there is the world of towering A.I. One day we will be as irrelevant as cockroaches to the Second Species, and it will have its own logic and morality.
This is an easy book to read and I wish that every politician would read this book (including "Manna") because not only would it give them an enjoyable and mentally stimulating reading experience, but it would give them a vision, and a sense of purpose in seeing the need for a guaranteed minimum income, GMI, and a guaranteed maximum income so that robots can create a world for us in which everything is free (within reason) and where we are all on permanent vacation. It is an amazing vision of the future. I urge everyone to dive into the pool of the waters of understanding and to read both of these exciting, terribly important, and very easily digestible books.
This is an easy book to read and I wish that every politician would read this book (including "Manna") because not only would it give them an enjoyable and mentally stimulating reading experience, but it would give them a vision, and a sense of purpose in seeing the need for a guaranteed minimum income, GMI, and a guaranteed maximum income so that robots can create a world for us in which everything is free (within reason) and where we are all on permanent vacation. It is an amazing vision of the future. I urge everyone to dive into the pool of the waters of understanding and to read both of these exciting, terribly important, and very easily digestible books.
phlllebuster
4.0 out of 5 stars
Provoking yet possibly flawed
Reviewed in Canada on May 21, 2015Verified Purchase
A good intro to where automation is taking us and how society must adapt to the day when work as we know it Becomes untenable as a basis for wealth distribution. I am not yet convinced that the end state of AI is a universally uniform passive eco friendly consciousness as described in the book but I will keep exploring that thought!
One person found this helpful
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GWhiz
4.0 out of 5 stars
Good Reading
Reviewed in Canada on September 6, 2015Verified Purchase
Interesting read. Personally I don't think we'll reach the computer equivalent to human intelligence in my lifetime but it is interesting to speculate.
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